The reason for this thread is that I've noticed many changes between the dynamics of Somaliland and Somalia in 2012 especially with the initiation of Somalia and Somaliland dialogue and the new President and PM of Somalia along with a change in the stance of President Silanyo of Somaliland. There are 3 main themes that I will try to touch on in an objective way. To me they allude to some kind of collusion between Somalia and Somaliland administrations.
The isolation of Northern Unionists: I am an avid Somaliland advocate and what has surprised me the most is how Mogadishu under the new administration has chosen to completely ignore the role of Northern unionist political heavyweights such as Prof Samatar and Dr Ali Khalyf of Khatummo etc. Surprisingly it was under Sheikh Sharif that underhand tactics were used to try and empower representatives of Northern Unionist communities by acknowledging and supporting Khatumo State and other unionist groups. However, under the new administration it seems that unionists have been completely ignored in terms of cabinet selection and political dynamics. As a Somaliland believer to me the biggest obstacle to Somaliland is empowering the unionists of the North who often have some kind of mandate from their respective people. However, in the appointment of Fowzia Yusuf Haji Aden as the FM it is clear to me that the current Mogadishu administration would rather try to entice disgruntled Isaqs such as herself instead of genuine unionists. I mean it is pretty pointless considering upwards of 90% of Isaqs in Somaliland are pro-secesscion of Somaliland, whereas other tribes such as' Gadarbursi and Dhulbahante are not so clear cut. Surely if the new government wanted to undermine Somaliland they should have simply empowered these unionist communities against Somaliland instead of trying to choose a token Isaaq (who was incidentally a hardcore secessionist). I have heard rumors that Hargeisa and Mogadishu have been in consolation regarding the cabinet makeup in the past month and even if these rumours are baseless here genuinely seems to have been Somaliland pressure to exclude Northern unionist communities. Either this or the new administration is so incompetent that they ignored their biggest trump card against Somaliland, which is the role of the Northern Unionists who have been sidelined completely. By alienating Northern Unionists, in effect the current Somalia administration has accepted Somaliland as the representative of all the peoples based in the former British colony of Somaliland.
The role of President Silanyo: It is no secret that as SNM Chairman Silanyo was a unionist and despite not being part of the majority Isaq community in Somaliland, Dahir Riyale Kahin was seen to be a more stern advocate of Somaliland's statehood than President Silanyo. Silanyo is an elder statesman and he surely remembers fondly his Mohadishu days as finance minister. Recent events such as; the allowing of the British "consulate" in Hargeisa under the control of Mogadishu comes to mind, in the days of President Riyale this was unthinkable. Also it is no secret that the Silanyo administration is heavily influenced by the Dahabshill powerhouse. Make no mistakes Dahabshill is an economic force and it is in their best interests that here exists some kind of union between Somalia and Somaliland as it i in effect a pan-Somali organisation that wants to maximize its reach which is not favoured by secession. To make matters worse under the Silanyo administration there has been much kind words passed on to Mogadishu such as; the congratulating of Hassan Shiekh on his win and the fact that SIlanyo has never once come out in public to condemn Somalia's claim over Somaliland. Is Silanyo willing to accept a form of "creeping Federalism" or is the British educated economist trying to be cunning enough to fulfill the biggest claim made since Somaliland's re-independence of 1991?
Somaliland olive branch? To muddy the waters even more, ever since the president of Somalia assumed office he controversially stated that he union with Somaliland would be "reset" to 1960 where 2 countries would ideally form a brotherly union and that Somaliland will not be forced militarilly or politically to rejoin the union. To make matters worse the cabinet appointed included a woman who only a few months ago was an ardent Somalilander who in her own words praised the way her people spilt blood for Somaliland. She now has watered down her rhetoric to saying that Somaliland and Somalia are both her countries. This is a far cry from the provocative former foreign minister of the TFG (Rage Omar's brother) who went on to state that he wished to stop all NGO and UN supported activities in Somaliland until they left their secession hopes. This begs the question why would the current Mogadishu administration choose such a volatile woman as their foreign minister, a woman who can not at all influence her clan (the Isaq) to leave the Somaliland dream. Is her role to bring back Somaliland to the union or isit simply to facilitate the talks that will lead to Somaliland seceding de jure? Surely if they picked someone like Prof Samatar or a Dhulbhante, Warsengali politician they would be able to bring their communities back under Mogadishu's control. There is no doubt that this current administration has given leeway to the Somaliland administration on a few matters and most notably by sidelining the Northern Unionists who were the real headache of Somaliland and not one disgruntled politician from Somaliland. It seems that the PM and the President have been pressured by Somaliland to neglect Northern Unionists (and maybe Puntland) and to make sure there cabinet is mostly a Southern mix. Bear in mind that this suits Somaliland's claim to statehood as they have long argued that the reason a fair union can not work is because of a Southern domination since the 1960s, the fact that the President of Somalia chose to fill his administration with Southerners may have been a deliberate political calculation which was suggested by Somaliland officials before resuming their ongoing talks. You also have to bear in mind that President Hassan Sheikh has been in Somalia for the last 20 years so unlike the diaspora he has seen first hand the destruction of South-Central Somalia and with his NGO he has been to Hargeisa many times for projects. Therefore, he has seen first hand the genuine pro-Somaliland aspirations of the people there, perhaps he decided it is time to say goodbye to Somaliland or perhaps he has decided to offer the North supremacy in a federal union and the FM is the facilitator in this arrangement. Or perhaps the FM is the "Trojan horse" the inside man if you will who is in affect Somaliland's agents. A major criticism made of successive Somaliland administrations is that they have for far too long been too nice or too "scandanavian" if you will. Perhaps under Silanyo they have decided to pull up their sleeves and play dirty and use underhand, dark tactics to win their cause.
To conclude there is something fishy going on between the Hargeisa and Mogadishu administrations and there seems to be more communication and mutual respect between the 2 than both have with Puntland who have been completely sidelined of late in every way. What I want to know is this; is President Silanyo facilitating the re-union of Somalia and Somaliland in a federal arrangement that suits both and alienates the Northern Unionists. Or is President Hassan Sheikh facilitating the severing of ties with Somaliland based on mutual consent at the end of the scheduled or tabled talks.
I have tried to be objective, it may not have always worked, but what I genuinely want to know is what are your thoughts on all of this as this is something generally interesting. 2012 Has been a landmark year in the role of Somaliland and Somalia and their futures.
