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...and one Samaroon6 saaqs and one kastuumo
Lets see where this failed talk will lead to.
only one Daarod out of seven from the 'Dam-Jadiid' side is worse than3Wasiirka guryenta iyo qoiska , Mohamud Ahmed Barre Garad Gadabuursi Makahil
There is only a 0.001% chance that Somaliland agrees to stay with Somalia. They are gone.Hassan Sheikh will offer the iidoor to keep s/l but within somalia.
The iidoor will refuse this outright, however, they will negotiate for the next best outcome privately.
The talks will be important for what is kept private.
If s/l stick to their position, the talks will last 2 mins.
S/l to stay within the union will want half of everything, ministers, aid, budget etc.
I doubt very much the Hawiye will agree to that, as the south contains upwards of 70% of population and known resources.
In the short term(1-3 years), there will be no change to the staus quo, while in the long run (3-5 years), I expect movement on the part of s/l.
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