Somalia and Somaliland talks and the tribes taking part

[original dervish]

Hey.... that's almost identical to my analysis.

[BigBreak]

the skinnies in zoomalia have no input in our destiny and we will force the southie poofs to accept s/l independence just like eritrea does
im so sure we will be independent i will love to see all the desert rats who can manage to not die of a heart attack via envy once s/land is officially gone n becomes the un's 194th member

[original dervish]

You've got more chance of growing some balls than becoming independent.

[Khalid Ali]

Hassan Sheikh will offer the iidoor to keep s/l but within somalia.
The iidoor will refuse this outright, however, they will negotiate for the next best outcome privately.

The talks will be important for what is kept private.
If s/l stick to their position, the talks will last 2 mins.

S/l to stay within the union will want half of everything, ministers, aid, budget etc.
I doubt very much the Hawiye will agree to that, as the south contains upwards of 70% of population and known resources.

In the short term(1-3 years), there will be no change to the staus quo, while in the long run (3-5 years), I expect movement on the part of s/l.

There is only a 0.001% chance that Somaliland agrees to stay with Somalia. They are gone.

I see either only three things possibly happening. Don't expect Somaliland to be at the same level as any of the federal states

A) Somaliland agrees to stay with Somalia but demand 50% share in everything as they are "British Somaliland", the other half of the Somali Republic. 50% of the MP's, 50% of the ministries, either President or PM, 50% of national government money. 50% of everything.

B) Somaliland agrees to a confederacy. Two "countries" under one country. Two systems. They act as their own country, operate like one, have control of everything within its borders except for some thing such as foreign affairs where Somaliland and Somalia have one united voice in the international arena.

C) Somaliland rejects Somalia and maintains the status quo and continues striving for recognition.

99.99% the last option will be the outcome because A) would be denied by many in Somalia and B) would make Somalilanders think what good comes out of a confederacy for them.

Can this work that Somalia and Somaliland share the international aid assistance , also share the defense aid package
Somalia remains its own country own government with its own form of federal governance
Somaliland will continue to exist as a separate defacto state with its own government
Somalia gets the chance to promote Somalia and Somaliland unity inside Somaliland with rallies and everything
Somalia will agree with a UN supervised referendum on independence in 5 years time

[Transformer]

Hargayso and Muqdisho are plotting for the Harti residents. Can Irir be stopped? A wakeup call for those who blame Garowe. The blameless Puntland.

[AhlulbaytSoldier]

We should unite as equals or leave as grown up people.
But the faqash must know that Hawiye will never support a pro-faqash war in the north to liberate their kastuumo brethren from naked occupation. We really dont care weither Khalid rapes his dhillobahante maids in Gumaysicaanood or weither he slaps his servants. None of our damn business.
We let faqash alone fight with isaaq and see the the outcome while we are attacking the kenyan crusaders who are trying to annex Jubbooyinka

[sahal80]

this supports the existance of the northern-southren power sharing policy based on a northern-southren talks.
Non of the 5 clans of the ex british somaliland is included in the somali governments list. Thus, hassan sheekh acknowledges the exisistance of somaliland but he says he is againist the ex union and this he means a union based on a southren-northern power sharing.

Somaliland will not accept it without future independence referendum being included in the agreement.

no solution will be reached soon but they will keep cooperating in many departments and in the general interests.

[BigBreak]

^ dude i need to correct u its 3 clans in somaliland - isaaq, dir and darood with gabooye as a small yet important component in our national society
did u know only somaliland and not somalia or djibouti is 100% ethnic somali so really we are the beating heart of somalinimo and dictates if it works or not

[metamorphosis]

Khalid I dont hate eydoors. In fact I am urging you guys to keep your soverignty. The moment you join somalia is the moment you will have agreed to eternal chaos.

I hope mr ceeb isnt dumb enough to listen to hassan shaikh who couldnt even deal with the jubaland issue.

[Khalid Ali]

No one is joining any one these are just talks about about talks do not take it to serious Somaliland will never ever give up its sovereignty for any one
But can you call us by our original name isaaq or iidoor , magac qabil hada sidi yahay ba lo sheega manad nin weyn ahayn. The ogadens in this joint used to be odayaal war reerki maxa ku dhacay.

[metamorphosis]

so you are upset because I use eydoor?

[Khalid Ali]

Yes i dont like it

we have a name

would you like it if i call absame names not cool

[BigBreak]

saying eydoor sound like making noises like a donkey "eeyoor eeyoor eydoor"

[metamorphosis]

Ok If you dont like I wont use it.

[sahal80]

superlander
Ok then. 1 clan and 4 subclans. So if that happpens you will be the arabia of somalis


Meta is a traditional OG, OGs my talk too much but they are kinda of religious and have the some mentality as sheekaal and reerow xassan very down to earth people they are not like mudug peoples. I stayed in two different places each era with one OG guy and i have never seen wax ka dabeecad macaan.