2016 elections, the battle bet/n dj and the pro-ethiopians!

[sahal80]

PlanB 2016 elections
Inside info

There is a slight defference between the last elections and the next one, the current president was elected by mps who got selected by their clan elders.

Ethiopia wants to control as much regions as she can in order to influence in the next elections through its AU man mohamed anadif and regional presence!!

This is the reason behind their new military involvement!

Firstly, there will be an elected regional admins, a representatives from each district will elect its regional leader, then the same district representatives/the regional parliament/council will vote for the federal mps, then these mps will elect the president!!

As for dam jadid, while the AU is in favour of the regions electing their leaders stright after the liberation, they want first to implement an interim admins to pave the way for their lobbies getting elected. In this way, they can secure more mps and the rest with $$$!!

They started the battle with banadir districts!!(Should be splitted where district wardhiigley and waabari will form the capital so the rest can vote!)

Middle shabelle( shoulbe part of other region closely linked with banadir situation)

As for hiiraan(should be part of other region) has 5 districts, 4 of them are dominated by the beesha dhexe, their loyalty depends on who will be the ala shaykh/HIPS wing candidate whether dr afyare cilmi or another!

As for baybakoollowershabelle things are in favour of their ally sharif hassan

Galgaduud and southren mudug big fight on this region, can dj install their allies in galmudug and cadaado to reduce the ethiopian influence in dhuusamareb and cabudwaaq? Ceelbuur is clearly not in fauvor of them!

Jubba, as for gedo depends on the relationship with the pm, the rest on how ahmed madobe can control them in the interim era(reconciliation, cabinet and parliament)

The main parties and potential candidates

Cabdi wali gaas; as this time he controls puntland and wants to enlarge the administrations control(though dj/govt have their eyes on there through their dj ministers incase...) besides having all the facilities, sources are saying he is planning to run for 2016 elections!

He also added three non native ministers in his cabinet so he can attract the votes out of his administration.

He also secretly pushes omar abdi rashid to look after gandi and jubba.

ala shaykh wings and al islah.

[original dervish]

This is merely a side issue....all important decisions concerning Somalia will take place in foreign capitals.
Furthermore, it's not about being pro Ethiopian/Kenyan etc.....it's about being pro P/L/Galmudug/AhulSunnah/J/L etc.
The regions will seek outside support as a counter measure to the power grab in Mogadishu.
Hassan Sheikh and his organised criminal buddies must understand.....you can't treat Somali politics like a looted villa/farm.

[Even123]

So brother Sahal, who do you think will win in 2016's election???,...will it be the pro-ethiopians or the good DJ based on the facts on the ground today?

[sahal80]

So brother Sahal, who do you think will win in 2016's election???,...will it be the pro-ethiopians or the good DJ based on the facts on the ground today?

only allah knows but if the AU mission was changed into a global mission by the end of this year, the ethiopian influence will end at there, however, the ethiopians are using their AU card to let the regions elect their leaders as soon the operations come to an end.

The operations are imposed by the west to make the change ready in its time, but ethiopia and dj, each is taking advantage of it.

At the moment, the plan is to implement interim admins though the AU man is not happy about it bc he fears for his job.

I believe the mps will be a mix with dj being leading it if they succeed in the southwest, banadir, middle shabelle, hiiraan, galmudug, himanheeb and maybe others...abdi wali gaas could be the main rival because he has the facilities and controls more lands.

[BigBreak]

sahal, since the president will likely be elected by SELECTED mps based in mogadishu just like 2012, is it not likely hassan sheikh will rig/cheat to win another term?

[AbdiWahab252]

Beesha Calaamka should keep their govt and leave Somalia alone

[sav12600]

I doubt Gaas is gonna run for the 2016 elections, matter fact i doubt anyone from PL is gonna run for it but never the less PL will support any candidate who can move Somalia forward.

[sahal80]

sahal, since the president will likely be elected by SELECTED mps based in mogadishu just like 2012, is it not likely hassan sheikh will rig/cheat to win another term?

he has a lot of haters but he may be able to use the state instrument and other countries. The other thing is his party is strong and if dj re-unites with al islah his opportunities will get better, still needs an ally like sharif hassan and to manage some support within some clans/regions then it may look possible.

The west doesn't like him getting re-elected bc he only serves his groups agenda but if he made good achievements and is internationally aligned with them they may ignore his exclusive policies

This needs to have top westren allied arab countries like saudi arabia and UAE on your side, no public clashes with the regional countries like ethiopia.

[Bermooda]

DJ has undergone a 360 turn and is the most pro Ethiopian government we have ever seen. Only Yeey would beat Culusow in this how close competition. DJ have realized going against them is not in their interest.

I see culusow as mini obama who tried going against israel in his first year i think in favour of the Muslim world but then came to the conclusion that he is only harming himself and his party by doing so