Congrata to Ethiopia and Kenya re:Jubbaland. For now.

[The`Republic]

Congrats to Ethiopia and Kenya re:Jubbaland. For now.

They came together realized they needed the Jubba Valley together as a unit to have leverage over Somalia.

Kenya had their man on Madoobe and the Ethiopians had their man in Fartaag who then led Gedo Defense Forces from Dollow.

Kenya is physically in Kismaayo and Madoobe who has served the face of their occupation even before they captured Kismaayo got first pick. First as the head of Kenya formed interm council then Jubbaland president.

Ethiopia, powerful and dominant in the Jubba Valley, and yet made second imperial power inside Kismaayo got second pick and got their man Fartaag as deputy president.

They agreed to coordinate and came from shared interests against Somalia to agree to this political understanding. They used IGAD name and concerned neighbors.

Both nations handicapped any attempt to capture Baardheere or move deep into the Valley just concentrating on Kismaayo and covertly fighting national and international political game.

Then came Barre Hiiraale, driving into Kismaayo by boat. He took them on leading the Kenyans from their covert strategy to overt political interference.

He was temporarily moved out of town---but 5 km away. Barre was in the bushes in Gedo three years last time Shabaab drove him out of Kismaayo. Before that he was in the bushes for two years when ICU drove him out.

He can last more than months near Kismaayo's plenty and all the people who speak with him say he swears as he has always sworn "the second the opportunity arises".

Will Kenya even be in Somalia for two years? By then will Fartaag and Madoobe even still be on good terms?

Since them Kenya has been denounced and the Somali has gotten a great opening to exact a grand bargain from the center. This is no longer IGAD and their clients but Somali government and it's subjects with support from others.

Neither Kenya, nor Ethiopia, nor Puntland are particularly pleased by how the government and Madoobe have negotiated even if IGAD was saving face by being facilitator.

The Somali government wants to give the image of reconciliation and with the New Deal at stake they have swallowed their pride and agreed to make bed with Mdoobe. Madoobe knows he will not be in this lucky situation for long so he has compromised more than others expected.
This is half-time quarter and the pen isn't dry. Sure things are quiet but business is not concluded. Kismaayo is as much as a powder-keg as it was before.

The only people who make the status quo possible are the presence of Kenyan troops andnif a true reconciliation is not reached before they leave....

Welcome back to square one.

This time with Madoobe in the bushes as that group's history before.

[SomaliDefenceCouncil]

A huge blow for the Pintland baboons.

[The_Patriot]

I dont know what Voltage smokes but that sh!t is strong.

[guhad122]

I dont know what Voltage smokes but that sh!t is strong.

Patriot, leave him alone; let him smoke that shit as long he doesn't walk naked in the streets trying to call Adeer Barre to ask him his imminent return to Kismaayo.

[AbdiWahab252]

I am finally glad to see the OGs playing the smart game and avoiding PanDaroodism My condolences to Kab iyo Laxism (RIP), Puntland, Daroodismo, etc. Its a new era: Hawiye Absame Group (HAG 2.0)

[EEGA9]

Kenya was betting on Isiolo(Siyeelow) SNA group/Azaania( Gaandi's program which he concocted as Defence minister) to fill the void in the Jubbaland region, Madoobe was an ousted islamist around Dhoobley attempting to regroup until the opportunity to join the coalition against Shabaab arose as the Isiolo SNA group was ineffective in capturing Dhoobley prompting Kenya to intervene. He recruited and formed a new RSK fighting force which commanded the fighting till Kismaayo. He muscled his way in to Kismaayo as he had the bigger force and many of the Isiolo SNA/Azaania group in Kismaayo at the time were OGS so they didn't oppose madoobe taking over as head of the Kismaayo admin then Gaandi provided the JL political program and took a backseat.

Fartaag was also Isiolo(Siyeelow) SNA group and commanded Ceelwaaq(Gedo) forces not Dolow ? Barre Hiraale was the Dolow Ethiopian errand boy until he was arrested before fleeing to Kenyan Defence Forces in Ceelwaaq

Mogadishu and Kismaaayo are at peace, the president went to the Kismaayo conference hall and legitimized the process that lead to Madoobes election. Madoobe in return is meeting with some Xamar based groups opposing his admin and most will accept him since the Government has including Barre Hiraales uncle Dr Cabdi Shire who was present. With this behind them the Jubba maamul can begin to see funds flow in from new sources facilitated by the Gov and begin to fully establish the JL admin. With JL a legitimate organ of the federal charter those opposing it will find it difficult to unseat the admin. Barre Hiraale will disappear in the shadows.