You surprise me. Who are you really? And I am not being facetious. I really don't know who you are as in I don't even know what sub-clan of Marehan you claim.
I say all of that without any attempts to be negative.
It is fascinating how you are about the ONLY other person on this forum or really in life---who doesn't seem to be suffering the accursed "INFORMATION GAP" AKA CIVIC IGNORANCE.
That statement is true for all the recent analysis you have been giving.
Please read below from what I said at the beginning of the process back in November.
You are essentially spot on with two caveats:
1. The "Parliament" isn't a monolith or fixed. The Parliament at the beginning of the debate has different dynamics to the Parliament of today. This is evidenced by the firing of Kheyre
The Parliament of today is more focused, orderly, and disciplined. This is why those who now want to advance the franchise of vote are ascendent.
2. The Donors "cards" are not on the Table. In fact, spiritually they are on Farmaajo's side--advancing the franchise/multiplying voting locatione----never forget the Donors at the bare bones are baptized on the altar of Classical Liberalism. Advancing the Vote, increased access for less powerful/unarmed clans (I hate the word "Minorities" in Somalia as signifier of oppressive discourse---Jowhar which everyone automatically thinks one clan for example is majority Shiidle/Somali Bantu), more women, IDPs,, etc----that's the Donor's principles.
The Donors are not stake holders, so they have no direct seat. Their role are facilitators and GUARANTORS of the social contract.
What this means is THEY ARE AFTER RESULTS...NOT DYING AT THE ALTER DEADLOCK.
When the majority of stakeholders have made a chocie----the Donors step in to face off with the hold out.
Parliament was the problem child in the beginning of the issue. In this case, if the VOTE reflects rumours----namely that Parliament is now on the side of the President, the Ministers and Gov, and with the majority of the people pushing for more advancement of the vote aka even more locations, THEN THE DONORS WILL STEP IN AND SHOOT AN ARROW TO LAND AT THE FEET OF FMS THAT SAYS YOU LOST, MOVE. WE DON'T HAVE TIME.
For reference please note my response back in November when this whole election bruhaha began.
They are playing hardball sxb.
Do you think the UN or EU or US don't know what circumstances need to be in place for universal suffrage (1man/vote)?
How can you have that when entire regions and towns and areas of the country are directly administered physically by Shabaab? How can you have that when you don't even have an accurate census to know who is eligible?
They know 1man/1vote is virtually impossible, but getting to that now is NOT their intention.
This is explained by what Somalis term "ku qabso ka qaadi mayside."
The rest of the word understands it as the point in negotiation where CLARIFICATION happens before BARGAINING.
In CLARIFICATION, for example the store owner will say he is selling the rug for $500 while you as the customer respond with $350.
The sides will always attempt to provide JUSTIFICATION for their clarification (store owner says this rug is hand made from Persia, you say well I have bought a similar one from your competitor for 350)
Now the owner doesn't really expect to get that high sale and you don't really expect that low discount, but you have CLARIFIED the boundaries to bargain (i.e. meeshaad kasoo degi kartiin).
Parliament knows what the mandate is.
Through the long sub-committee process and the very public leaks, Parliamentarians have been "clarifying" what they want to test the level of challenge. ( No 1man/1vote)
The UN/Donors have responded with their own clarification (full 1man/1vote)
Xoogagag wadaniyiinta/misinformation is the justification provided by Parliamentarians and "hebel baan aragnay/la tashanay" is the justification by UN.
Now that they have both clarified and justified their clarification, they will bargain or "compromise."
Like I said to Sahal;
8. In the end, there will be a compromise that provides "CONTINUITY" of progress in State Formation.
9. Mark my words; the compromise from UN/Donors will be they will accept universal 1man/vote cannot be done now in exchange for something that is more universal and competitive than 2016 elections.
10. I will WAGER an arm and a leg that what they have been demonizing as "Farmaajo's xogaga wadaniyiinta system" aka more universal participation will in the end be what most resembles the final election compromise.
If you would like the link to the topic, here it is to fascinate you about how much you misunderstood about this fake election bruhaha.
https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=398449
Aka do you want to know what the "xoogaga wadamiyiinya" system was all about?
DIFFUSED ELECTION PLACES. VOTING FOR MAREHAN MPS IN GEDO AND NOT KISMAAYO.
These people do not even have the most basic understanding of what this is all about.