The first 6 months they will cement and/or take control over ;
-Western Galgaduud upto Dhusamareb including establishing a presence for the first time in Abudwaq. If this introduction is successful and Ethiopia wants to establish permanent presence in Abudwaq, there are hopes of connecting Abudwaq by road to Wardheer/Shilabo for a major gateway in to Galmudug sort of like a central Dollow.
-Hiiraan by tightening her political control over Beled-Weyne and moving forward the Feerfeer presence. Beled-Weyne is literally the city-state of the Shabelle corrider and who has it has political control over the entire Hiiraan valley
Both Gedo and Bay, Ethiopia already has long ongoing security and political investments, but what is probably the biggest story in Ethiopia's movements now is how significantly her investments have paid off especially in Gedo. Rer Gedo and Ethiopia went from being enemies having the worst relationship in the region to Gedo becoming Ethiopia near abroad in Somalia. The security investments Ethiopia has in both Gedo and Baidoa are secure enough they had no reason to send a single soldier in. They did it to send a message.
The next 6 months to a year;
Ethiopia is going to expand beyond Bay and Gedo and unlike others, I don't believe they are going to base troops into offensive territory like up to Barawe or Lower Shabelle or to Kismaayo challenging KDF, but they will for now secure politically and militarily the entire territory of Northern Jubbaland up to Bu'aale and Baydhabo environment.
After a year, it will become apparent to even the blind what Ethiopia is doing and they are not even hiding it;
1. They expect the Federal Govrt to have broken down.. meaning even the President and PM are at war, and even Parliament has become completely broken down into little units all at war. This initial kumbaaya will be ancient history they believe.
2. By that time, Ethiopia has such a grip in the interior everyone will be aware of who will be deciding more than half of the next Somali parliament/government. Ethiopia intends to play hardball that makes Kenya look negotiable.
They expect many of these MPs by then will be eating out of their hands trying to curry favor.
And Ethiopia will encourage and welcome them in. And they will be used against Hassan Sheikh from within the Federal Government. And Ethioia's goal with all of this is to bring down Hassan Sheekh, even successfully impeace him. They will not allow him as they hope to get to 3 years.
There is no negotiating. They don't want to negotiate. They don't want to talk. They don't want even anything that makes it seem what he did is forgivable.
To Ethiopia, what Hassan Sh did in the Nile issue is "unforgivable."
He has to be made an example of and they are going to try with everything fhey have got to make an example out of him.
