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I've been saying for years the southerners are a hopless cause. The masses are some of the most innovative and hardworking Somalis you'll find anywhere. However, the southern political classes are as incompetent and corrupt as they come.
I'm glad you asked this question.....finally your paying attention.
It's true I advocated for a strong hagite government, however if you look back I almost always had a caveat " Anybody except hsm". My top preference was former pm Geedi.
Now try and be constructive and make sensible political proposals.
Hsm is such an existential threat to the existence of Somalia it would be perfectly legitimate for him to be removed by extra judicial means and a government of national unity formed.
The first 6 months they will cement and/or take control over ;
-Western Galgaduud upto Dhusamareb including establishing a presence for the first time in Abudwaq. If this introduction is successful and Ethiopia wants to establish permanent presence in Abudwaq, there are hopes of connecting Abudwaq by road to Wardheer/Shilabo for a major gateway in to Galmudug sort of like a central Dollow.
-Hiiraan by tightening her political control over Beled-Weyne and moving forward the Feerfeer presence. Beled-Weyne is literally the city-state of the Shabelle corrider and who has it has political control over the entire Hiiraan valley
Both Gedo and Bay, Ethiopia already has long ongoing security and political investments, but what is probably the biggest story in Ethiopia's movements now is how significantly her investments have paid off especially in Gedo. Rer Gedo and Ethiopia went from being enemies having the worst relationship in the region to Gedo becoming Ethiopia near abroad in Somalia. The security investments Ethiopia has in both Gedo and Baidoa are secure enough they had no reason to send a single soldier in. They did it to send a message.
The next 6 months to a year;
Ethiopia is going to expand beyond Bay and Gedo and unlike others, I don't believe they are going to base troops into offensive territory like up to Barawe or Lower Shabelle or to Kismaayo challenging KDF, but they will for now secure politically and militarily the entire territory of Northern Jubbaland up to Bu'aale and Baydhabo environment.
After a year, it will become apparent to even the blind what Ethiopia is doing and they are not even hiding it;
1. They expect the Federal Govrt to have broken down.. meaning even the President and PM are at war, and even Parliament has become completely broken down into little units all at war. This initial kumbaaya will be ancient history they believe.
2. By that time, Ethiopia has such a grip in the interior everyone will be aware of who will be deciding more than half of the next Somali parliament/government. Ethiopia intends to play hardball that makes Kenya look negotiable.
They expect many of these MPs by then will be eating out of their hands trying to curry favor.
And Ethiopia will encourage and welcome them in. And they will be used against Hassan Sheikh from within the Federal Government. And Ethioia's goal with all of this is to bring down Hassan Sheekh, even successfully impeace him. They will not allow him as they hope to get to 3 years.
There is no negotiating. They don't want to negotiate. They don't want to talk. They don't want even anything that makes it seem what he did is forgivable.
To Ethiopia, what Hassan Sh did in the Nile issue is "unforgivable."
He has to be made an example of and they are going to try with everything fhey have got to make an example out of him.
Also, Mahad Salaad is a direct agent of Egypt in Somalia. He received an Egyptian scholarship and he was based in Egypt. He was part of the mindset that heavily influenced Hassan Sheikh to do what he did astronomically shooting himself in the foot by taking Egypt 's side.
They never imagined that the Tigray War would finish that quickly or amicably for the Ethiopian government.
What Ethiopia is making him do is called a public walk of "shame" and she is showing the Somali political class exactly what is ascendent and what has ended.
HSM is in Eritrea begging Afeworki to intercede while the biggest irritating loudmouthed intensely disliked by Ethiopia, Mahad Salaad, is made to walk the walk of shame.
Ethiopia will welcome and toy as part of Zem ena Werq, but she will never allow this to go unpunished---
That is HSM and his band of idiots. That's all they are. And that's all Ethiopia sees and will tear by the roots.
Welcome in the meantime and kiss the ring in atonement--:
We have reached the 6th month timeframe.
The next 6 months to a year;
Ethiopia is going to expand beyond Bay and Gedo and unlike others, I don't believe they are going to base troops into offensive territory like up to Barawe or Lower Shabelle or to Kismaayo challenging KDF, but they will for now secure politically and militarily the entire territory of Northern Jubbaland up to Bu'aale and Baydhabo environment.
Half blood for half blood. Destroy the Kenyan puppet stateWe have reached the 6th month timeframe.
The next 6 months to a year;
Ethiopia is going to expand beyond Bay and Gedo and unlike others, I don't believe they are going to base troops into offensive territory like up to Barawe or Lower Shabelle or to Kismaayo challenging KDF, but they will for now secure politically and militarily the entire territory of Northern Jubbaland up to Bu'aale and Baydhabo environment.
1. A major security (political) conference is slated to start between Ethiopia and Jubbaland State.
2. The attendees will be generally multi-clan and opposed to Ahmed Madoobe; specifically it is about producing a "Rer Gedo" led Jubbaland to correct the destabilization caused by the 2013 agreement.
3. The Gedo Regional Administration is enroute to Addis Ababa, if they haven't already arrived but as this is about "Rer Gedo" led Jubbaland not just those opposing Ahmed Madoobe---many other "Rer Gedo" entities of all factions will be there.
A major and seismic political and security pivot with profound and long-term consequence for Jubbaland, for Somalia, and for the Horn of Africa neighboring regions is set for production.
Half blood for half blood. Destroy the Kenyan puppet state
I guess xog I was told a while ago is now coming out to the public.Bye bye cagdheer
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