"The ruling party UDUB repeated its successes in the
district and parliamentary elections by gaining the largest
number of votes, returning 33 MPs, with Kulmiye second
with 28 and UCID third with 21 (see table 2). UDUB is
therefore the largest party in parliament, but with the
opposition having 49 seats it does not command an
overall majority. This makes Somaliland the only place in
Africa where parliament is not controlled by the
government.
All three parties saw their vote increase (see table 3),
but the proportion of the popular vote for each party
changed (see chart 2). In terms of the popular vote, UCID
has been the main gainer in the parliamentary elections,
increasing its overall vote by 103,118, compared to an
increase of 55,854 for UDUB and 22,813 for Kulmiye.
This is a significant development for UCID which came a
poor third in the district elections.32 Its growing
importance is apparent from the fact that it won
parliamentary seats in all regions and beat Kulmiye into
third place in Saaxil. One of the reasons for the increase
in UCID’s popularity has been a shift in support to them
from UDUB by the Habr Yunis clan. Another is that
candidates who were unable to get onto UDUB’s list
chose to join UCID instead.
In terms of the popular vote, Kulmiye appears to have
lost ground in the parliamentary elections, with UCID
making marginally more gains from Kulmiye than
UDUB. While Kulmiye gained support in Woqooyi
Galbeed, it appears to have lost support to the other
parties in Saaxil, Togdheer, Sanaag and Sool regions. In
Togdheer its support declined by over 15,000 votes, while
UCID’s increased by over 21,000 votes. The comparative
decline in the popular vote for Kulmiye probably reflects
the strength of the Habr Yunis clan which increased its
number of parliamentary seats (see below).
Within the majority Isaaq clan family, the three largest
clans have all seen an increase in their number of seats.
Together, the Habr Awal (Sacad Muse and Ciise Muse),
Garhajis (Habr Yunis and Ciidagale) and Habr Jeclo’ hold
51 seats. On the other hand, the smaller Isaaq clans have
both seen a reduction in their number of seats: Arab
(five), Ayub (one).
Within the Isaaq the most significant change has been
an increase in the representation for the Habr Yunis in
parliament (up from seven to 17 seats); together with the
two Ciidagale seats the Garhajis have over 20 per cent of
the seats in parliament. They have representation from
across Somaliland, with the exception of Awdal region,
and are potentially the single largest ‘clan block’ of votes
in parliament. Even in Hargeisa three Habr Yunis
candidates were elected, which is surprising given that
they are more populous in Togdheer. The shift in Habr
Yunis allegiance to UCID has made it into a serious third
party. In 1994 the perception by the Habr Yunis that they
were under-represented in parliament was one of the
grievances behind the civil war in Somaliland. The
equitable representation between the three major Isaaq
clans should mitigate clan-based ructions in Somaliland."
http://www.progressio.org.uk/shared_asp ... lowres.pdf
