Missing the Point in Somalia
Posted: Mon Jul 16, 2007 11:26 am
By late December 2006, the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC), which had controlled a significant portion of Somalia including the capital, quietly abandoned Mogadishu, allowing for the unopposed marching into it of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) troops and of its ally Ethiopia.
By January 2007 the courts had lost their last stronghold - the port town of Kismayo at the southern tip of the country. Most of the fighters and leaders were forced to flee into the area bordering with Kenya.
The TFG, despite its heavy reliance on Ethiopian troops, began to take measures such as a disarmament plan, and negotiations with warlords that had controlled Mogadishu.
TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf did manage to convince some warlords to lay down arms and submit their militia to the national army.
However, insurgency was still part of Mogadishu as a significant number of fighters loyal to the UIC had vanished into their clan bases.
By March 2007, the long-awaited Ugandan contingent of African peacekeepers arrived in Mogadishu.
They were welcomed with a barrage of mortar fire.
Concurrent with the arrival of the Ugandans, Ethiopian-backed TFG troops were engaged in a pitched battle with insurgents to dislodge them from their stronghold in certain parts of the capital from which a huge number of inhabitants were fleeing.
Some say Mogadishu had not seen as intense fighting as such that took place at the time.
Late in April the Somali TFG announced that it had defeated the insurgents in the capital.
The peace conference, which was announced in January at the African Summit, initially set for April 16 was later postponed for June 14, and for the third time deferred to July 15.
"We have received requests from some Somali clans asking for more time tochoose delegates and we need time to prepare the venue for the conference," Ali Mahdi, the conference's chief organizer is reported to have said.
So are things going in the right direction in Somalia?
Don't put your hopes up, says a former U.S. diplomat pointing to persistent attacks and fierce opposition against the TFG which began after about two months of its arrival in Mogadishu.
The Somali issue is much more complicated.
"Although it has gotten better since March, the situation is still very volatile and exceedingly unsettled. My own personal view of the situation is very pessimistic one. Quite honestly, I do not see the TFG, as it is currently constituted, as being capable of attracting enough support among the Somali people to continue to exist," former US Ambassador to Ethiopia and current adjunct professor at George Washington University told a gathering here last week.
Shinn argued that it was a futile attempt to convene a peace congress or carry on further without first reaching out to other groups who are now opposed to it.
"The international community and perhaps even countries of the region are focusing on two points that I think are missing the point. They are focusing on this national reconciliation conference and they are focusing on building up the African Union peacekeeping force in Mogadishu. There are 1600 Ugandan peacekeepers in Mogadishu today and more than 4000 Ethiopian troops. 1600 Ugandans won't be able to do anything in Mogadishu and they know it. And I would argue 16,000 Ugandans or any other troops won't be able to do anything. "
"It has become more and more a clan problem-Darood versus the Hawiye, particularly the Habergedir sub-clan of the Aiyr feeling it was marginalized and did not have prospects for control of power sharing, for control of the economy etc...They started opposing the Ethiopian and TFG forces and the situation is very nasty, although it has gotten better since March," Shinn said.
Basing his opinion on previous experience he said he was not so sure that the peace conference will ever take place, and if it did that it will be a long-drawn-out one with little chance of bringing lasting agreements.
"First off, I don't know when you are going to have it or when you are going to make it happen. It is not going to happen any time soon in my view, and certainly not in Somalia."
"I have been to a number of the thirteen previous reconciliation conferences, including the one in Addis Ababa which dates back to December of 1993. None of them has created a viable government, not a single one has come up with a viable government," Shinn told the gathering at the Ras Mekonen Hall in the Addis Ababa University Compound.
Shinn leaves only one option.
If the TFG chooses to continue as it is now he says it will need the Ethiopian forces to "prop it up forever".
That, according to him, is not only unacceptable to Ethiopia itself due to the heavy financial burdens that it will be forced to carry, but it is also a decision that is likely to aggravate the tension between Ethiopians and Somalis. He adds that this was not in the national interest of Ethiopia.
"It is going to require some serious rethinking by the Transitional Federal Government to bring in to that government some people they now consider to be their enemies not the extremists there is no place for them,- but they are going to have bring in some people in that they now see as enemies."
Such a decision, Shinn said, will give the TFG a broad base support as followers of such leaders will be brought in with them.
This he added will not only strengthen the legitimacy of the TFG but also be instrumental in isolating and neutralizing what he called "spoilers."
In the event that such groups presently opposing the TFG refuse a possible invitation for power sharing, then Shinn argues it is up to the international community and specially the Arab League and Eritrea - countries who are supporting these groups - to exert pressure on these groups to join.
By January 2007 the courts had lost their last stronghold - the port town of Kismayo at the southern tip of the country. Most of the fighters and leaders were forced to flee into the area bordering with Kenya.
The TFG, despite its heavy reliance on Ethiopian troops, began to take measures such as a disarmament plan, and negotiations with warlords that had controlled Mogadishu.
TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf did manage to convince some warlords to lay down arms and submit their militia to the national army.
However, insurgency was still part of Mogadishu as a significant number of fighters loyal to the UIC had vanished into their clan bases.
By March 2007, the long-awaited Ugandan contingent of African peacekeepers arrived in Mogadishu.
They were welcomed with a barrage of mortar fire.
Concurrent with the arrival of the Ugandans, Ethiopian-backed TFG troops were engaged in a pitched battle with insurgents to dislodge them from their stronghold in certain parts of the capital from which a huge number of inhabitants were fleeing.
Some say Mogadishu had not seen as intense fighting as such that took place at the time.
Late in April the Somali TFG announced that it had defeated the insurgents in the capital.
The peace conference, which was announced in January at the African Summit, initially set for April 16 was later postponed for June 14, and for the third time deferred to July 15.
"We have received requests from some Somali clans asking for more time tochoose delegates and we need time to prepare the venue for the conference," Ali Mahdi, the conference's chief organizer is reported to have said.
So are things going in the right direction in Somalia?
Don't put your hopes up, says a former U.S. diplomat pointing to persistent attacks and fierce opposition against the TFG which began after about two months of its arrival in Mogadishu.
The Somali issue is much more complicated.
"Although it has gotten better since March, the situation is still very volatile and exceedingly unsettled. My own personal view of the situation is very pessimistic one. Quite honestly, I do not see the TFG, as it is currently constituted, as being capable of attracting enough support among the Somali people to continue to exist," former US Ambassador to Ethiopia and current adjunct professor at George Washington University told a gathering here last week.
Shinn argued that it was a futile attempt to convene a peace congress or carry on further without first reaching out to other groups who are now opposed to it.
"The international community and perhaps even countries of the region are focusing on two points that I think are missing the point. They are focusing on this national reconciliation conference and they are focusing on building up the African Union peacekeeping force in Mogadishu. There are 1600 Ugandan peacekeepers in Mogadishu today and more than 4000 Ethiopian troops. 1600 Ugandans won't be able to do anything in Mogadishu and they know it. And I would argue 16,000 Ugandans or any other troops won't be able to do anything. "
"It has become more and more a clan problem-Darood versus the Hawiye, particularly the Habergedir sub-clan of the Aiyr feeling it was marginalized and did not have prospects for control of power sharing, for control of the economy etc...They started opposing the Ethiopian and TFG forces and the situation is very nasty, although it has gotten better since March," Shinn said.
Basing his opinion on previous experience he said he was not so sure that the peace conference will ever take place, and if it did that it will be a long-drawn-out one with little chance of bringing lasting agreements.
"First off, I don't know when you are going to have it or when you are going to make it happen. It is not going to happen any time soon in my view, and certainly not in Somalia."
"I have been to a number of the thirteen previous reconciliation conferences, including the one in Addis Ababa which dates back to December of 1993. None of them has created a viable government, not a single one has come up with a viable government," Shinn told the gathering at the Ras Mekonen Hall in the Addis Ababa University Compound.
Shinn leaves only one option.
If the TFG chooses to continue as it is now he says it will need the Ethiopian forces to "prop it up forever".
That, according to him, is not only unacceptable to Ethiopia itself due to the heavy financial burdens that it will be forced to carry, but it is also a decision that is likely to aggravate the tension between Ethiopians and Somalis. He adds that this was not in the national interest of Ethiopia.
"It is going to require some serious rethinking by the Transitional Federal Government to bring in to that government some people they now consider to be their enemies not the extremists there is no place for them,- but they are going to have bring in some people in that they now see as enemies."
Such a decision, Shinn said, will give the TFG a broad base support as followers of such leaders will be brought in with them.
This he added will not only strengthen the legitimacy of the TFG but also be instrumental in isolating and neutralizing what he called "spoilers."
In the event that such groups presently opposing the TFG refuse a possible invitation for power sharing, then Shinn argues it is up to the international community and specially the Arab League and Eritrea - countries who are supporting these groups - to exert pressure on these groups to join.