Postby Steeler [Crawler2] » Thu Sep 13, 2007 2:36 am
"Would it totally unleash millions of Shia in Iraq to just human wave US forces?"
I don't think there are any non-Persian human waves ready to die for Iran. Would it send it's own military across the border into Iraq to attack US forces? I doubt it, but maybe. They would lose badly if they did that. Probably not worth it.
"would it block the straits of Hormuz causing Oil prices to reach 200 a barrel?"
Yep, I think this is very probable. Of course, they would alienate the entire world once they did this, and I don't know for how long they could sustain it, but yes, I think this would be likely. The question is, where does this go? Iran needs oil imports for its own economy every bit as much as the world needs the straits open. What would they be looking to achieve. They wouldn't want to cut off their own noses to spite their face.
"Would it Attack the US through covert Cells in the states?"
I doubt they have any meaningful covert capability in the US capable of projecting power any more than we do. So this COA is probably not realistic. More likely would be that they would leverage terrorist elements in places they do have capability, like parts of Africa, Asia and the Middle East, to target US forces.
Also, you did not mention it, but I would expect them to launch ballistic missiles that have conventional warheads at US facilities in Europe and the Middle East and perhaps Afghanistan. Won't do a lot of damage, given the lack of accurracy, but it will do enough to be a concern.