1
´The Ethiopian government has closely guarded details of the number of troops deployed
in Somalia and statistics of casualties incurred in the fighting, but credible sources told
Human Rights Watch that by early 2007 Ethiopia may have had as many as 30,000
troops in Somalia.87 In 2006 Ethiopian military convoys carrying troops and military
materiel came into Somalia regularly from Ethiopia, passing through Beletweyne town,
in Somalia’s Hiran region.88 Ethiopian forces deployed in Mogadishu in early 2007
included infantry and air support.´
HRW report: Mogadishu shell-shocked.
http://www.pencanada.ca/media/SomaliaHu ... Report.pdfThe answer to question 2 lies in the fact that Hawiye opportunists and traitors have turned the whole issue into something else. For example, the Hawiye religious pretenders turn it into Islamic struggle...the Hawiye warlords and traitors turn it into ''fight between Ethiopians and Al-Itixiad''...and others again turn it into ''Subclan vs Ethiopians''
While the reality on the ground is:
1: The Somali group that loses big time by this occupation: Hawiye in general
2: Somalia loses too, since today its Hawiye, tommorow other group.
So, since Ethiopia is an arch-enemy of Somalia...and since the centre of the occupation is within Hawiye regions it is natural to translate this struggle into: Hawiye vs Ethiopian occupation..........only when all Hawiye subclans join the struggle can we expect from other Somali groups to do the same...so that the struggle can be translated into Somalis vs Abbysinians. In the meantime, the only thing we can expect is moral support from other Somali groups..nothing else.
Another thing which does not exist at this particular time: Strong, credible leadership............but the longer the struggle drags on, the urgent the need for this strong, credible leadership will be...and the higher the chance that someone with these features will step to the front.
The answer to question 3 is linked to question 2. If Hawiye loses, then Ethiopians will stay as long as they want, and even go for more.
But if Hawiye subclans join the resistance en masse, and Ethiopians get weakened, then other Somali groups will join too....which basically means: The defeat of Ethiopian occupation and even more consequences for Ethiopian-Tigre regime itself.