27 years of Ethiopia in Somalia

[James Dahl]

In late 1981, the SNM and SSDF, invaded Somalia on behalf of Ethiopia.

For the full history of the 31 year war between Somalia and Ethiopia
viewtopic.php?f=250&t=180686

[Son_of_Somalia]

Its a fantastic eye opening read, thank you James

[James Dahl]

Thanks,
Somalia has to deal with it's past before it can deal with it's future, that's what I believe.

[Son_of_Somalia]

James Dahl we still have a good chance of driving out ethiopia and her proxies by the end of this year under the wise leadership of the courts and her allies.

The reality is that the southern somalis have awoken from the era of warlordism, they now have the bitterness of the last two years to have a healthy hatred for ethiopia which could be used by us to gear them towards somali nationalistic aspirations.

Puntland already has a strong underground Islamic court movement, who are waiting for the southern courts to finish their job before proclaiming unity.

I also heard that somaliland also has its own underground Islamic court movement who are also bidding their time until the courts in the south take full control of southern somalia.

[James Dahl]

James Dahl we still have a good chance of driving out ethiopia and her proxies by the end of this year under the wise leadership of the courts and her allies.

The reality is that the southern somalis have awoken from the era of warlordism, they now have the bitterness of the last two years to have a healthy hatred for ethiopia which could be used by us to gear them towards somali nationalistic aspirations.

Puntland already has a strong underground Islamic court movement, who are waiting for the southern courts to finish their job before proclaiming unity.

I also heard that somaliland also has its own underground Islamic court movement who are also bidding their time until the courts in the south take full control of southern somalia.

Don't mistake the victory for total victory. The Ethiopian army is withdrawing due to a change in strategy. The plan now is, if Mogadishu and the south cannot be occupied, then their plan is to contain them. This is their plan B:


Driving Ethiopia out of Somalia may never happen. Writing off the south and the capital means that Ethiopia has given up the dream of annexing Somalia, but that means they have no reason not to recognize Puntland and Somaliland as independent states, like Russia just did in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, a similar parallel situation.

And unlike South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Ethiopia is a WESTERN ally, Puntland and Somaliland would be recognized.

This battle may be nearing it's end, and the Muqawaama have won a convincing victory, but Ethiopia has been steadily encroaching on Somalia for almost 30 years, and it will take another 30 to get them out.

[gurey25]

Your analogy is flawed.
South Osetia and abkhazia require Russian patronage like your body needs oxygen.
a russian withdrawl will be followed by sudden collapse.

Somaliland does not depend on Ethiopia for its existance,
Somaliland faces no millitary threats, and ethiopia is a vital trade partner,
but it isnt responsible for even half of somalilands trade.

and you are wrong it is not in ethiopias short term interests to aide the recognition of somaliland.
an unrecognized somaliland is tied firmly to Ethiopia, and ethiopia will face allot of problems like
higher taxes on ethiopian imports through berbera,
more scrutiny of its millitary hardware it is importing from North Korea, through Berbera..

basically while we are unrecognized we are ethiopias b-itch and they know this ,
and they will milk this oppurtunity as much as they can,
we will probably have good relations after recognition, but it will be a different relationship.

[Son_of_Somalia]

To understand this one must look at the current ethiopian leader and he's past political ambitions before becoming the current incumbent prime minister of Ethiopia.

Meles Zenawi successfully succeed into taking power after the Derg Government collapsed in Ethiopia by skillfully deceiving other liberation movements such as the Oromo liberation front , he was one of the leaders of the Tigray patriotic front (TPLF), which was a rebel group that wanted the Tigray region of ethiopia to break away and become an independent country.
The famous 1985 famine in Ethiopia really hit the Tigray region hard, where millions of Tigray people died, they have sheer hate towards the ethnic group associated with the Derg Government.


After taking power with the help and collaboration of Eritrea he then started to work very hard to help Eritrea which was once a region of Ethiopia itself to break away and be recognized by the international community as a sovereign nation.

In he's 17 years ethiopia has managed to become even poorer and more divided along ethnic lines, he has invested very little on ethiopia's economy and much of the current infrastructure is very old and is nothing more than what was bult by the Derg government.
Today under he's leadership 14 million ethiopians are on the verge of famine, the government also encourages ethnic and religious violence between the peoples of Ethiopia.
This year alone he has signed a deal with Sudan, the deal gives Sudan them huge farming lands in Gondar, 200 villages were told by the government to leave their homes, some refused and decided to fight and many others were killed.

Since 1995-2004 he has successfully and skillfully managed to destroy the various peace processes in somalia by using selfish somali warlords as pawns to keep somalia in perpetual chaos.
He has prided himself in he's knowledge of the somali people and had once lived and studied in Mogadishu itself.

However the tide is now turning, in he's blatant invasion of somalia he was forced to come out of hiding and expose he's true agenda. In two long years with full backing and financial support from the international community he has failed to quell the Somali resistance forces, infact he has managed to strengthen it.

All this comes at a time when the Necon US administration is about to leave office, the very administration that has provided huge financial support to meles.

Indeed meles will now look towards pulling out of southern somalia and securing the ethiopian border. He won't even bother trying to isolate the somali resistance forces under the leadership of the courts, as they would already have two key deep ports under their control.

[Wadaay]

The problem with this cute piece of work is that it's been proven they are incapable of securing these 'corridors' even while maintaining a full occupation. This redeployment would only be returning to the frontiers before the invasion. Nothing new. Except this time they are on a defensive stance, and the Mujahidin are on offense. Glory is for Allah.

[James Dahl]

The problem with this cute piece of work is that it's been proven they are incapable of securing these 'corridors' even while maintaining a full occupation. This redeployment would only be returning to the frontiers before the invasion. Nothing new. Except this time they are on a defensive stance, and the Mujahidin are on offense. Glory is for Allah.

Yeah it's a stupid plan, but it looks like they're going to try it anyways.

[GENERAL_SNM]

James I think you missunderstud the relatioship between Isaaq's and Ethiopians.Little to no friction exist between us and Ethoipians.They ethiopians allowed us to seek shelter in Ethiopia during Barreaun ragimes cleansing.So the same way that most somaliland people are antisomali because of the past, they are pro Ethiopia because of their past actions.

[Son_of_Somalia]

^^^ What gives you the impression that the people of Somaliland are Pro-Ethiopia.