You are very right on this! I have been saying this for few months now that Ethiopian troops in Somalia are actually trapped and are trying a way out. I heard that it has been two months since the Ethiopians troops in Muqdisho received any supplies.
The troops in Baydhabo can't send enforment to the ones in Muqdisho and vice versa. The troops in Beled-Weyne are having hard time reaching any safe place because first they need to go through the Nus-Dariiqa and they know that they will get ambushed. After that, the ONLF fighters will take it from there and unfortunately for them, things won't get any better.
I just hope that the forcefully conscripted Ethiopians, who are mainly Guraaga and Oromo, follow the footseps of the already surrendered compatriots and peacefully give themselves to the freedom fighters.
gurey25 wrote:I think you are too optimistic James,
the troops in somalia do not exceed 20,000 while Melez has an army of around 300,000.
makumba59 wrote:If they flip sides and start supporting the OLF then that's it, Ethiopia falls.
"IF" is conditional. Any other plan that doesnt involve What the Oromo might, shall, should or would..?
gurey25 wrote:You are right the expense of the somalia invasion is beyond thier means, but
all im saying is that the more experienced and better armed divisions are not in somalia...
gurey25 wrote:They cannot move those divisions, you see thats thier weakness.
As long as eritrea exists the REAL ethiopian army will be deployed in the north and we will never meet it.
all that it can spare are second rate units, and these second rate units have been capable of invading and holding somali territory for this long...
it only started to suffer when the alshabab started to learn how to fight a proper guerilla war.
yawle wrote:It is no surprises there. There are a lot of Isaaq seef-la-boods in the alshabaab ranks. The head of Al-Shabaab is also from Burco. And now you have another one assigned to a top rank to lead the Kismaayo Islamic administration.
The simple fact is, Isaaq seef-la-boods are fighting a true jihad while most others are fighting clan-wars disguised as jihad. Also Isaaqs are known to be just and fair rulers who put the weak and the mighty on the same scale of judgement when it comes to rule of law.
I bet there will be no more clanwars in Kismaayo from now on. The diplomacy of the Isaaq men will win over those disgruntled warlords to join the new path to progress.
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