Twisted_Logic wrote: James Dahl wrote: Twisted_Logic wrote:
The funny thing is the ICU spearheaded the Kismayo initiative against Hiraale and Al Shabab just takes the credit by naming its men to top positions. This arabian wanna-be dudes are funny
There is no UIC/Shabab split. The UIC pretends that al-Shabab isn't affiliated with them so that they can pretend to negotiate with the government and make the west happy.
You saying Sh. Dahir Aweys and Sh.Sharif and the al-shabab dudes are just fooling the West
Look it's like this, Ethiopia wants to withdraw, but if he just withdraws with his tail between his legs then he looks weak, and his opponents back home will smell blood and take out his regime. He needs the "Exit with honor", the way the USA withdrew from Vietnam. You make this make-believe treaty with your opponents where they promise not to destroy your puppet state and everyone will kiss and make up. Everyone signing the agreement knows it's a fantasy, and it's not worth the paper it's written on, but the public perception has to be there that Ethiopia is just abiding by its treaty obligations, and not running screaming from Somalia.
Ethiopia has been trying (and failing) to pull their troops out of Baidoa and Mogadishu, but they keep getting ambushed on the road to Dolow. The irony is that Ethiopia's army is actually trapped in Somalia, and to get out they're going to have to abandon a lot of their weapons and tanks and whatnot.
What noone realizes is Ethiopia is in deep sh**, but thanks to Meles' iron fisted media control and lack of a political opposition noone yet knows exactly how bad. The economy is in big trouble and the droughts are much worse than reported. OLF, ONLF and UWSLF are winning in Ethiopia, and Ethiopia is really weak right now, they basically were forced to cede part of Ethiopia to Sudan a few months ago.