Postby Cawar » Mon Sep 08, 2008 10:03 pm
The newest round of state-level polling results.
The Rasmussen polls were done with FOX News Channel, for what it's worth.
Chief lesson to be drawn from this polling:
The race is tight in swing states.
While the race is tight, the sky is not falling.
The news is worst in Ohio, where according to Rasmussen, McCain has opened up a substantial lead. On the bright side, the lead is not much wider than it was prior to the conventions:
Rasmussen. 9/7. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (8/18 results)
McCain (R) 51 (48)
Obama (D) 44 (43)
Nader (I) 1
The news is better in Pennsylvania; while Obama clings to a two-point lead in the state, that's actually improved from August, when McCain led by two points:
Rasmussen. 9/7. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (8/19 results)
Obama (D) 47 (43)
McCain (R) 45 (45)
Barr (L) 1
Nader (I) 1
This could be statistical noise, or it is possible that the Biden selection has improved Obama's numbers in the state.
The two contenders are tied in Florida, ever a battleground state and 27-electoral-vote presidential prize:
Rasmussen. 9/7. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (8/18 results)
Obama (D) 48 (46)
McCain (R) 48 (48)
Nader (I) 2
Again, Obama's numbers improve slightly while McCain's don't move. The most interesting finding from this poll: Obama is actually beating McCain badly among independents, 54% to 37%.
So why is McCain tied? He draws 19% of Democrats in Florida, compared to Obama's 9% of Republicans. Now, there are still a large number of old Southern Democrats in Florida, particularly the Panhandle, so it's understandable that McCain would draw substantial Democratic support...but 19% seems a bit high. Then again, so does a 17-point Obama edge among unaffiliated voters.
Moving on to Virginia, McCain has picked up a point in the state per Rasmussen, and now leads Obama by 2:
Rasmussen. 9/7. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (8/12 results)
McCain (R) 49 (48)
Obama (D) 47 (47)
Barr (L) 1
Nader (I) 1
Not much to say there...things are pretty much the same as they were prior to the conventions. In fact, SurveyUSA shows precisely the same result, with precisely the same August results.
In Colorado, however, Rasmussen shows a good trend (which may again be statistical noise) for Democrats:
Rasmussen. 9/7. Likely voters. MoE 4.5% (8/13 results)
Obama (D) 49 (48)
McCain (R) 46 (49)
Barr (L) 2
A three-point lead for Obama, and four-point swing, is perfectly good. However, Tarrance Group on behalf of the NRSC begs to differ:
Tarrance Group (R) for the National Republican Senatorial Committee. 9/2-3. Likely voters. MoE 4.5%
McCain (R) 47
Obama (D) 45
That is a Republican internal taken in the middle of their convention week, so use as many grains of salt as you like.
Possibly the worst polling news for Democrats today is the prospect that Obama could lose a Kerry state worth 18 electoral votes, the state of Michigan. Per Public Policy Polling, he leads there by one point:
Public Policy Polling. 9/6-7. Likely voters. MoE 2.9% (July results)
Obama (D) 47 (46)
McCain (R) 46 (43)
As critical as victory is in Bush-won swing states like Colorado, Florida, Ohio and Virginia, it is every bit as critical for Obama to hang on in the bigger states won by Kerry, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania