ahlusunnah wal jamaacah supporters urgent meeting

[Voltage]

I think we are overestimating shabab abit, you have to remember that their clashes in these current locations are a never ending cycle: they win, they lose, they win etc. The only places that they don't look like loosing is xamar, the two shabelles, the two jubbas and bay and bakool - because even hiiraan it's they lose, they win saga.

That's because that is their stronghold and without them they are nothing. Keeping control over there is the base to get to Djibouti.

[Voltage]

Not all somalis are stupid. if dhusamareeb and guriceel are captured, I bet balabanle and cabudwaaq will just surrender if they don't receive Ethiopian help. Only a large well equipped/organized force can defeat al shabab, not a bunch of grave worshiping moryaan.

I know for a fact they will. No use sacrificing yourself against something whose campaign should include everyone. If Shabaab captures Dhusamareb and moves toward Caabudwaaq, Marehan will do what they did when the ICU did the same. Change your cimaamad color and send out your boys first to meet them. If these guys capture Dhusamareb, the next place of battle will be Gaalkacyo and if Gaalkacyo falls, it is a watershed moment. The ringing will start in Hargeisa, forget Boosaaso Majeerteen will be immediately preparing their surrender. Why would they destroy what work they have accomplished the last couple years?

[Galmeygaag]

I think we are overestimating shabab abit, you have to remember that their clashes in these current locations are a never ending cycle: they win, they lose, they win etc. The only places that they don't look like loosing is xamar, the two shabelles, the two jubbas and bay and bakool - because even hiiraan it's they lose, they win saga.

the more crowded the battle ground is the weaker they become, there are too many towns and cities in Galgaduud and not much area in-between reducing the effectiveness of their technique.

al.sebab wants to eradicate the "infidels" while the Sufi wants to chase away the "khawarij" you can notice this in the stark difference in the strategies and statistics.

i think because Galgaduud lacks the breathing room for operation {luring into city then ambush} al.sebab has moved onto operation {surround and attack}.

they are relatively new to this region thus i think they have yet learned to adapt but are getting there.

[SultanOrder]

I really think we are overestimating alshabaab, the truth be told is this they do not have the means nor the political support to wage a long aggressive offensive. To capture cities is much harder than to defend. They must have: a large supply of fire power and the ammo, a strong morale and conviction in the forces, intelligent leadership, an effective supply line, a large supply of men to fight and more to hold the ground they've gained, large quantities of rations. The case now is they are fighting an ideolgy that is hostile to them, people who have fought to the death against them, and religious influence that is backing their enemies.

This is going to be a fight for their lives and they are the aggressors.

Al-Shabaab just has too many enemies and not enough friends.

[grandpakhalif]

Not all somalis are stupid. if dhusamareeb and guriceel are captured, I bet balabanle and cabudwaaq will just surrender if they don't receive Ethiopian help. Only a large well equipped/organized force can defeat al shabab, not a bunch of grave worshiping moryaan.

I know for a fact they will. No use sacrificing yourself against something whose campaign should include everyone. If Shabaab captures Dhusamareb and moves toward Caabudwaaq, Marehan will do what they did when the ICU did the same. Change your cimaamad color and send out your boys first to meet them. If these guys capture Dhusamareb, the next place of battle will be Gaalkacyo and if Gaalkacyo falls, it is a watershed moment. The ringing will start in Hargeisa, forget Boosaaso Majeerteen will be immediately preparing their surrender. Why would they destroy what work they have accomplished the last couple years?

Voltage unless Al shabab recruit mass forces their forces will be stretched thin

[Murax]

It looks Shabab Has not been able to do anything in Galgudud the buffer zone between Southern/Northern Somalia but since Ahlu Sunnah dissintrgrated into qabiil, who knows. If they do things would turn interesting to see if Ethiopia will intervene or not. I think they will with the blessing of the Intl community.

[Voltage]

I really think we are overestimating alshabaab, the truth be told is this they do not have the means nor the political support to wage a long aggressive offensive. To capture cities is much harder than to defend. They must have: a large supply of fire power and the ammo, a strong morale and conviction in the forces, intelligent leadership, an effective supply line, a large supply of men to fight and more to hold the ground they've gained, large quantities of rations. The case now is they are fighting an ideolgy that is hostile to them, people who have fought to the death against them, and religious influence that is backing their enemies.

This is going to be a fight for their lives and they are the aggressors.

Al-Shabaab just has too many enemies and not enough friends.

Is this you or your Sufi side speaking waryaa?

[Voltage]

Voltage unless Al shabab recruit mass forces their forces will be stretched thin

Al Shabaab is expert at communication and using clan against clan with the end result of bringing both under their control. They used Ogaden and others against Marehan in Kismaayo then in Kismaayo when their OG allies acted up they used disgruntled Marehan to help them disperse them into the countryside. Right now they are using Murusade and Duduble against Ahlu SUnnah alliance of HG, Marehan, and Dir. That alliance has been broken up so all of their successes are occurring now because they are up against HG now. Once they get Dhusa-Mareb, Marehan will surrender or face a new Shabaab camp of Hawiye. I am sure just like the ICU, they will use Saleebaan against Sacad and once Sacad land has been taken, use all of Galgaduud against Majeerteen in Puntland. Nothing is black and white in Somalia and this guys are expert at navigating the waters. They have done it before and I have no doubt they will do it again.

Remember, the time they settled in Jubba planning to fight Marehan in Kismaayo took a compete year and half. They have only been fighting in Galgaduud now for about 6 months. The time they have been in Galgaduud is nothing in the context of the wider history.

[abdalla11]

the shabaab khawaarij are very close to dhuusomareeb. They captured a town called mareergur. we need to increase the dhikr and make dua's for the mujahideen fi sabillah

You mean make a new song with a great beat

[SultanOrder]

Down with kwariij man, too rule a nation one must:
1. Be of the People
-Spiritually
-Ideologically
-Physically
2. They must be able to change the condition of the people
-This doesn't mean some Utopian inspired fantasy, if there was ever to be a utopia it would of been in the time of the rasul and even then it wasn't perfect.
-Be compatible with the world not an isolationist movement
3. They should not oppress the people

Even if they change the south for the better, the next generation will have different needs than their parents who just wanted security.

[Galmeygaag]

Caabudwaaq is better off not engaging in any warfare to prevent casualties, but it is unrealistic for a - and + to ignore each other, naturally they will be forced to clash and if that happens i pray the sick al.sebabi and the sufi neutralize each other to some extend. i really dont like either

[grandpakhalif]

Thanks for the insight Voltage it seems like the fall of Galgaduud is imminent. You forgot the Ethiopian reaction though....?

[Voltage]

Thanks for the insight Voltage it seems like the fall of Galgaduud is imminent. You forgot the Ethiopian reaction though....?

There will be no Ethiopian reaction like that against the ICU. They have been delegitimized politically internationally (the whole concept of the Djibouti process was anti-Ethiopian existence in Somalia) and also there is no Bush era funding anymore and Ethiopia doesn't have the cash to get into Somalia and fight militias by itself.

[grandpakhalif]

Thanks for the insight Voltage it seems like the fall of Galgaduud is imminent. You forgot the Ethiopian reaction though....?

There will be no Ethiopian reaction like that against the ICU. They have been delegitimized politically internationally (the whole concept of the Djibouti process was anti-Ethiopian existence in Somalia) and also there is no Bush era funding anymore and Ethiopia doesn't have the cash to get into Somalia and fight militias by itself.

You think Ethiopia will just stand by while it's ministates(puntland,somaliland) fall? It has a stake on their ports and won't risk being landlocked. Ethiopia will also feel threatened by Al Shabab because it has vowed to invade it.

[Murax]

Voltage,

No offense but Murursade, Duduble etc. are very minor clans in Galgudud. Without MR/HG support Shabab are wasting their time. Same in Hiiraan, Xawaadle don't want them so they cannot do anything there.