What do we know?
- Uganda will request a force of upto 20,000 be sent into Koonfur to wipeout Al-shabab.
- Ethiopian invasion mutated a regional UIC into an international Al-shabab.
- Ugandan invasion will be fruitless if AL-shabab goes into sleep mode and disperse.
- Al-shabab knows they can't afford to loose their core loyalists in an invasion.
- Kenya setsup a blockade around it's borders.
- Ogadenian forces supervised by Melez have setup a blockade at their border.
- Suddenly puntland begins deportation of the young men who could be potential future members of al-shabab's offspring.
Regional containment requires blocking all avenues that let Al-shabab disperse effectively. The trap looks set and the AU meeting is discussing the final phase of the plan which will spring the trap and inflict maximum damage to al-shabab. Now this solution requires diminishing al-shabab's power to an insignificant level that will allow for the unassisted growth of the TFG.
TFG is very weak and controls a square mile of moqadishu. In order to level the playing field to TFg's advantage the blow infflicted on Al-shabab must yield them to an equivalent control less then a square mile. For that to happen and for a state of equilibrium to be induced all trained fighters loyal to al-shabab must be terminated this also to prevent the accidental evolution of Al-shabab to Al-dijjal.
There is a bigger plan at work here and the actions of puntland is reflective of things to come in order to stem al-shabab from the roots to the top branches of koonfuria.
