Estimate Shabaabs total fighting strength.

[SultanOrder]

Right now shababs is engaged in 3 fronts.
1. Xamar
2. Galgaduud
3. Gedo

Now they have a major threat to their gedo regions, Sufis have taken dhusamareeb back, and they could not defeat amisom. If the campaign moves forward in Gedo, and the sufi's launch an offensive southward. What will be Shababs alternatives? They would have to concentrate only on a few places so which is more important to the them, central where they haven't been able to control much and don't have much support, or Gedo where they have relatively controlled that area with little or no civil unrest. I'm thinking they will leave central, consolidate their current holdings in Gedo, and make it a priority. Either way it looks like central somali is going to be out of reach to them for a long time.

Now everywhere I read that mentions their fighting strength it never passes 5 thousand troops.

What will be left of shabaab? In the coming weeks we will see.

[Somali_Boqor]

More than 3 fronts:

Bakool - Ethiopioans ae occpuiying 2 towns

Jubada hoose - Afmadow

Gedo - dolow and now balad hawo

galguduud

Hiraan

Banadir


Alshabaab are fighting and defending on 6 different fronts. They have shown they can easily take dhusamereeb from the sufis but they are not choosing to hold it from some reason. Hirrale has already taken balal hawo/luuq before but they took it back. The tfg militias had taken balad weyne before and reached all the way to buula burde but hey where pushed back to the Ethiopian border. It is clear that one of their tactics is to easily vacate a town under their control and regroup and attack it.

[ciyaal_warta]

the think i can tell u is alshabab cant fight too many fronts man

now they are fighting Gedo , hiiraan , galgaduud and banaadir...bay and bakool will join soon..their forces will be stretched and they will loose...the only reason they won the last battles was they used 2 fight one front at a time and bring all their forces in that front..example Hiiraan when ever TFG troops take over beletweyn all shabab forces from bay 2 banadir came and tooke bk da city.

i want all out assault against them

[SultanOrder]

Then Shababs greatest strenght is their greatest weakness, its their lack of numbers.

A large mobile force capable of occupying and holding many different cities from aggression, takes a lot of resources, one that needs to be well founded, organized, and large number. Alshabab has shown then that it cannot which is its greatest weakness because they cannot therefore fight a large force at all. This is all the proof we need to believe that alshabaab will never be able to even reach puntland let alone somaliland.

What shabab's current tactics show is that they are a small orginized force, that has to concentrate their forces on a specific location and hope that the outlying areas will fall into line afterwards. Shabab will soon be on a retreat in the hope of fighting a list ditch battle, but their waterloo is on the way, all we have to do is count the days.