Postby udun » Thu Dec 02, 2010 6:40 pm
If you look at it from a military standpoint, the current stalemate serves Al-Shabaab very well in their effort to train more forces, sharpen their military tactics, and show their appeal to others that they are defying foreign military aggression. Keep in mind kicking AMISOM quickly requires heavy losses on the part of the Al-Shabaab since AMISOM is not in an attack-mode but in defensive positions and are also fully protected in their barracks. What Al-Shabaab is following is a gradual killing rate which will eventaully exhaust the moral and pysche of the AMISOM troops. They have definitely taken lesons from their previous military mistakes like the all-out attack on Baidoa in 2006. They do also understand that if they throw AMISOM out, more powerful militaries will intervene with more powerful weapons including air power.
This stalemate also serves well the foreign powers who brought AMISOM into Somalia and paid for its services in the 1st place. It keeps Al-Shabaab in-check and makes sure they don't easily overrun Mogadishu and move on to the rest of the country. Have you heard of the box-in policy that was put in place in Somalia in late 2008? Keep in mind these powers don't believe the status quo will remain forever. Whenever they learn Al-Shabaab's military progress, the size of AMISOM and other forces are increased.
The people who are caught in the middle are our civilians and dying daily while no-one in this world cares to see their pain.
