Two days after the December 20 Nairobi bombing of a Kampala bound bus, Uganda decided to send 1,800 additional troops to Somalia.
The attack, like the July 11 Kampala twin bombings that left over 70 people dead, is believed to have been motivated by the presence of Ugandan troops in Somalia—Al-Shabaab, the mastermind of the attacks, had threatened to attack Uganda for quite some time.
It is now close to four years since Uganda first got involved in Somalia. And we are yet to see any tangible fruits of this mission, which was supposed to be peacekeeping. Somalis continue to die and those that live do so under quite subhuman conditions.
There is constant exchange of fire between the protagonists, punctuated by suicide bombing attacks. Dead bodies rot on the streets; women deliver their babies on garbage dumps; bombed out buildings are largely inhabitable and deserted and the refugee numbers are soaring.
And now, sadly, the war has spread beyond Somalia’s borders. The battleground has sucked in Kampala and now, Nairobi as well. It may be going to Bujumbura soon (the Al-Shabaab has threatened).
Somalia’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) lives under acute fear everyday. It would have died a long time ago were it not for the UPDF/AMISOM protection. But, is keeping the TFG in office really peacekeeping?
I have never stopped to think that the conflict in Somalia can best be concluded with decisive victory by one of the rebel groups or the government forces, without external help.
Or at least with covert external help, the way it happened when the National Resistance Army won a war against a defective government in Uganda or the way the Rwanda Patriotic Army did in Rwanda, marking the end to genocide there.
I can’t imagine how the future of Uganda would have been today if North Korea had airlifted ‘peacekeeping’ troops in 1985 to prop up Milton Obote’s second government.
Since 1990, Uganda has established itself as a regional player, acting covertly in several countries in the region; Congo, Sudan, and Rwanda. And this has paid a dividend for Ugandans and the entire region.
Many will argue that the booming Ugandan businesses in Southern Sudan are a product of Uganda’s involvement in that arena. But Somalia is looking more and more like a long time investment for Uganda!
Late 2010 saw President Yoweri Museveni appealing for more funding from the international community and even asking that the mission mandate be changed from peacekeeping to peace enforcement.
Although it is not clear whether these were granted, the peacekeepers in Somalia are right now hunting down the militants. This is why an extra 1,800 soldiers, trained in urban warfare, were flown into the country.
We may never ascertain the degree of success of the peacekeepers. What we know is that the battleground has now taken on a regional configuration.
When Imam Kasozi of Uganda Muslim Youth Assembly (UMYA) visited Turkey, and had opportunity to meet with Somalis who have sought residence in that country, he was asked to tell the Ugandan president to stop bombing Somali buildings and killing native Somalis.
And as the New Vision reported on December 23, 2010, Uganda has been accused by humanitarian organizations for firing indiscriminately and killing civilians in Mogadishu.
In a report filed by Rageh Omar of Al Jazeera TV, called ‘From Minneapolis to Mogadishu’, aired in July 2010, “at least 20 young American men of Somali background secretly left their homes in Minneapolis (in 2007) to return to Somalia and fight alongside a militant group called Al-Shabaab...they wanted to resist a US-backed invasion of their homeland by neighbouring Ethiopia.”
These are clear indicators that native Somalis are not happy with the peacekeepers. The future of Somalia remains in the balance as long as regional players like Uganda seek to deliver the striking blow.
The global war on terror is ending with more unexpected consequences as we get to the end of a decade since it was proclaimed by then American George Bush Jr. in 2001. Small nations wooed by money and other small incentives such as political support ought to be on their guard.
If America is considering speaking to the Taliban, a group more vicious than the Al-Shabaab, then, sending more troops to Somalia sounds hollow in the name of peace.
If after a failed invasion, America quits Iraq, with damages, not only to Iraqis, but to both America’s economy and its image, then, Uganda and Burundi might be risking a bigger tragedy.
