All 250,000 wikileaks cables released publicly

[James Dahl]

Somalia: http://wikileaks.org/tag/SO_0.html
Ethiopia: http://wikileaks.org/tag/ET_0.html
Kenya: http://wikileaks.org/tag/KE_0.html
Djibouti: http://wikileaks.org/tag/DJ_0.html

[uglybrother]

Good stuff.

[Cali_Gaab]

Great stuff James

[Estarix]

Thanks for the link.

I found this one particularly interesting. http://wikileaks.org/cable/1985/01/85MOGADISHU1175.html

RESOURCES AND INFRASTRUCTURE: SOMALIA IS A LARGE,
SPARSELY SETTLED COUNTRY OF 5 MILLION PEOPLE, WHOSE
MAJOR RESOURCES ARE ITS LAND AND LOCATION. SITUATED
ADJACENT TO THE MARKETS OF THE PERSIAN GULF, AND
WITHIN EASY SHIPPING RANGE OF EUROPE, SOMALIA POSSESSES
A LAND AREA OF APPROXIMATELY 64 MILLION HECTARES.
OF THIS, ABOUT 8.2 MILLION HECTARES ARE ARABLE, BUT,
WITH WATER AND AGRICULTURAL LABOR LIMITING FACTORS
ONLY ABOUT 900,000 HECTARES ARE UNDER CULTIVATION. OF
THE REMAINING LAND, ABOUT 60 PERCENT IS SUTIABLE FOR
GRAZING WITH THE BALANCE WASTE.

ITS FISHING POTENTIAL
AND MINERAL RESOURCES REMAIN LARGELY UNKNOWN AND UN-
EXPLOITED, THOUGH SIX FOREIGN OIL COMPANIES ARE
CURRENTLY ENGAGED IN SURVEYS AND EXPLORATION. THE
NATIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE BASE IS WEAK, WITH ONLY TWO
MAJOR URBAN CENTERS (MOGADISHU AND HARGEISA), THREE
DEEPWATER PORTS (MOGADISHU, KISMAYO AND BERBERA), A
POORLY DEVELOPED INTERNAL ROAD NETWORK, AND NO RAILROAD.
PUBLIC UTILITY, EDUCATIONAL AND HEALTH SERVICES ARE
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE MAJOR CITIES. THE HUMAN
RESOURCE BASE IS ALSO WEAK, WITH MANAGERIAL AND
TECHNICAL SKILLS PARTICULARLY SCARCE.

Its quite a shock to read how much of Somalia's hectare land could have been cultivated.
Also Hargeisa and Mogadishu were the only urban centres, today there are 5 times more cities that could be called urban centres today. One positive thing the division of Somalia produced was that it allowed Somalis to return and invest in their ancestral regions, result being that development is spread in the country, and there isnt a high concentration of people in one city having the luxury to live a good life. Today youll find a University in Hargeisa, Burco, Las Anod Borama, Galkacyo (north and South), Bosaaso, Qardho, Kismayo, 5 more in Mogadishu etc.
Before the civil war ended you only had one.

[James Dahl]

TFG actively worked against Ahmed Madoobe and Ogaadeen in Lower Jubba
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10NAIROBI83.html

TFG is going to get rid of the old currency and make their own Somali Shilling
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2010/01/10NAIROBI99.html

Puntland's internal problems
http://wikileaks.org/cable/2010/02/10NAIROBI117.html

[guhad122]

My favorite quote:
"Our contacts claim that Ogaden leaders close to Madobe have made significant inroads in negotiations with Marehan
leaders in Kismayo, resulting in Marehan clan defections from al-Shabaab. (Note: The Marehan subclan is a small minority in Lower
Juba. Many Marehan militia have, consequently, formed a tactical alliance with al-Shabaab because they fear loosing access to port
revenues. End note.)"

[Voltage]

Guhad in the Lower Jubba region yes, I don't think anyone said we were a majority or a significant minority either. Marehan always say they are majority of Gedo, Kismaayo, and a minority landowner in Lower Jubba. Wikileaks from US Embassy also says Marehan are the majority of Kismaayo city

(Comment: While President Yusuf is from the Darood/Mijerteen
sub-clan, the Darood presence in Kismaayo is largely from the
Darood/Marehan sub-clan. End Comment.)

http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/02/08ADDISABABA286.html

And even the quote you posted attributed Marehan's importance to their position in KIsmaayo city.

You are not the owner of Lower Jubba, you share it with Gaaljecel, Shiiqaal, Mushunguli, Cawrmale, Mareexaan, and you are also not the majority of Kismaayo city (Marehan is).

[guhad122]

Voltage,
I don't know if you know this but we, Ogadens of Jubaland, don't count or take into consideration anytime frame from 1996 to 2006. Kismaayo at that time was under occupation by Mooryaan from Ceyr clan and few used and abused Marehans...

I can guarentee that once Kismaayo is liberated; the few Ilka-Yars left after Adeer Barre's departure will follow him...That Ilka-Yar repatriation program has been on many Absame/Ogaden discussions lately. And by the way, J/hoose consists of Kismaayo, Afmadow, Xagar, Badhaadhe, and Jamaame so what makes you think Absame is not the majority? Miskiin...

[Voltage]

Hala gaaro sxb but the assessment is that which is why Ahmed Madoobe might be trying to befriend the Marehan in Kismaayo all the way from Dhoobley if trying to be active in Lower Jubba.

And if we look broadly to what we know as "Jubbaland" then I suppose it should not come as a surprise Marehan are able to protect their interests in Kismaayo or anywhere else in Lower Jubba. However, inshallah kolayba dadkaas way heshiin and accept each other as members of the same federal state.

[Murax]

I can guarentee that once Kismaayo is liberated; the few Ilka-Yars left after Adeer Barre's departure will follow him....

Walaaahil Cadeem You've been saying this for years

[Advo]

My favorite quote:
"Our contacts claim that Ogaden leaders close to Madobe have made significant inroads in negotiations with Marehan
leaders in Kismayo, resulting in Marehan clan defections from al-Shabaab. (Note: The Marehan subclan is a small minority in Lower
Juba. Many Marehan militia have, consequently, formed a tactical alliance with al-Shabaab because they fear loosing access to port
revenues. End note.)"

It's obvious it was a typo, they meant majority..... I can almost swear on it.

[guhad122]

If the so-called Marehans are in Kismaayo are that sagnificant; they wouldn't be called "Very small minority". Madoobe strongly apposes Gaandhi because of Dr. Gaandhi's welcoming views on Ilka-Yars...I can asssure you one thing: Madoobe has no lost love for Ilka-Yar

As for Absame and Sade getting along, it is too late. Absame is now united against Ilka-Yar because of the policies and the aggressions of the Ceyr and Ilka-Yars......

[Murax]

If the so-called Marehans are in Kismaayo are that sagnificant; they wouldn't be called "Very small minority". Madoobe strongly apposes Gaandhi because of Dr. Gaandhi's welcoming views on Ilka-Yars...I can asssure you one thing: Madoobe has no lost love for Ilka-Yar

As for Absame and Sade getting along, it is too late. Absame is now united against Ilka-Yar because of the policies and the aggressions of the Ceyr and Ilka-Yars......

Kill every last one of those ilkayars all the way back to caabudwaaq

[Voltage]

Guhad, the wikileaks said Marehan is a minority in Lower Jubba. I don't think any Marehan said they are a majority of the region or even contests big deegaan in Lower Jubba. However, Marehans have said they are the majority of Kismaayo and the wikileaks agrees with that. Even the wikileaks you use that says Marehan are a minority in Lower Jubba is saying Madoobe is trying hard to ally with the Marehan of Kismaayo. Do you know how to read? Just because Habar Gidir is a minority or non-existence in the Middle Shabbelle or Lower Shabelle as a population group doesn't negate the nature of their numerical dominance in southern Mogadishu.

Btw why are the Ogadens so obsessed on Cayr? If Cayr and Marehan had equal partnership in JVA or were driven by same interest, why is Marehan the most significant group in Kismaayo even today while Cayr's association with the city ended when the JVA ended? Maybe you guys have a perpetual fear of Cayr or Habar Gidir, but we live with them in Galgaduud and lead them there and know them. The partnership between Marehan and Cayr was a strategic one that had more today with national politics than just a local issue for Marehan in Kismaayo. I think it is time you moved on. Where was Cayr the last time a clan war happened in Kismaayo after the ICU was removed and Marehan expelled the Ogadeni militia led by Koojaar and the Harti militia led by Afgaduud?

The world bank



In the end the objective of the alliance for Marehan has succeeded because their presence in Kismaayo and their foremost position in a Jubbaland state is legitimized while Cayr/Habar Gidir have lost all positions in the Lower Shabelle and been totally removed from the equation in the southern theater. I think it is time you moved on and accepted the truth before you. Kismaayo is today like Caabudwaaq or Garbahareey to Marehan.

[Eaglehawk]

guhaad sorry but voltage`s analysis is on point

¶5. (SBU) Kismayo has been the locus of a long-standing conflict
between the region's Darood sub-clans. The city has changed hands
several times in the recent past and some have estimated that it has
been controlled by 30 different regimes (mostly clan-based) since
¶1991. The Darood/Ogadeni, last week's winners, have a power base
outside Kismayo, and are unlikely to be welcome for the long term by
Kismayo's citizenry, the majority of whom are Darood/Marehan. Our
contacts question how long this Kismayo coalition of convenience
between local clans, ICU remnants, and al-Shabaab can hold together,
given the city's past, its clan makeup, and likelihood of
disagreements over sharing power and port revenues.

http://wikileaks.org/cable/2008/08/08NAIROBI2032.html