The trends to watch in 2012 for Somaliland:
1.Water: There is a renewed focus in search for finding sustainable water sources. The studies done and the actions plans in place depend on funding. In this regard, the Government of Somaliland has been asking anyone who will listen to help with improving the water supply in Somaliland. So far, Kuwait, UAE and EU have pledged assistance. Look to see the drilling of wells and laying down of pipe lines in the coming year and the years there after.
2.Oil/Gas/Minerals: It looks like every administration that has taken office in Somaliland has been focused on making deals on Oil/Gas/Mineral exploration. I’m not sure what will come of this, but it looks like this never gets old. Look to see more press releases in the coming years, but I’d hold my breath when it comes to actually witnessing the exportation of Oil/Gas/Minerals.
3.Tax: Ever since the new administration has taking office, there has been a renewed focus on taxation. The tax system has gone through considerable overhaul. Look to see it being implemented in the coming year. Look to see income taxes being paid for the first time ever.
4.Infrastructure: Even with modernizing the tax system of Somaliland, it would still be a poor country and cannot pay for infrastructure. Increasing the salary of its civil servants, security forces and making primary education free has pretty much swallowed the meagre annual budget of nearly 100 Million. Local governments have started to do maintenance on roads with the help of the residents of each neighbourhood, but this is not enough. The government has one project it is awaiting funding from the EU for the Berbera corridor, but this has not materialized as of yet. It looks like the Diaspora has finally realized they will need to build this country and get involved in more areas than just education and health. There have been a number of roads being built and the Diaspora is taking lead, the road between Hargeysa & Jabuuti, Hargeysa and Salaxley, Hargeysa and BaliGubadle, Hargeysa & Burco, Burco & Ceerigaabo. Improving the road network will improve the economic trade between the regions and the movement of people. Look to see the Diaspora investing in the infrastructure of the country in the years to come.
The trends to watch in 2012 for Somalia:
1.Reconciliation: Up until now the reconciliation conferences were held in Foreign Capitals. This has changed this year with the conferences held in Mogadishu & Garowe. Look to see reconciliations conferences being held in Somalia in the coming years. This is a milestone in the politics of Somalia to finally trust each other enough to have a dialogue inside the country. These conferences will Insha Allah herald a new era where the interests of Somalia will take prominence and the invasion of Kenya/Ethiopia and foreign meddling from Uganda/UN can finally be curtailed.
2.Regional Administrations: There has been renewed focus on different regions/states/provinces of Somalia to administer the affairs of their region. This could be a direct result from America’s dual track approach. The building blocks approach to reconstituting Somalia seems to have finally taken flight and every village now wants to control its own destiny. For better or worse, continue to see more administrations being declared in the coming year.
3.Food: With chronic food shortages due to droughts every couple of years, look to see the Diaspora be more prepared in taking action. For the first time in the past 20 years, Somalia’s Diaspora had a united effort in helping their less fortunate brothers and sisters in Somalia. Look to see the Diaspora in taking the same steps to avert and be more proactive in dealing with food shortages and other crisis.
4.Peace: For the first time in many years, people have been able to go to the beach in Mogadishu. Life is becoming more and more normal. As the reconciliation and political road Map for Somalia progresses more and more areas will find peace and return to normalcy. Look to see Somalia inching towards peace, irrespective of the colossal challenges such as the troops from neighbouring states and the divisions within Somalia’s factitious factions.
