My Predictions for 2012

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

LOCAL:
-UK leads NATO intervention inside Somalia
-Like they did in Iraq/Libya they'll destroy infrastructure, specifically targeting Turkish projects
-They will entice Kenya, Ethiopia, AU, & proxies to engage Shabaab, which will end in disaster
-NATO troops take plunge into South Somalia, sit around in Mogadishu and hesitate to advance
-Shariif Xassan becomes President, Faroole gets VP, Puntland gets new leadership
-NATO combines South Mudug & Galguduud into Puntland and starts training new armies
-UK starts oil exploration in Puntland, with hopes of exploring uranium in Mudug & Galguduud
-Stalemate continues

WORLD:
-Iraq enters civil war, Kurdistan joins secular pro-autonomy Sunnis against power-hungry Shias
-Saleh flees Yemen, the country turns into 90s Afghanistan with Islamists & sects claiming territory
-Assad is killed in Syria, Muslim Brotherhood takes over, renegades start genocide on Alawi sect
-Egypt descends into chaos and law & order break down completely
-Morocco, Algeria, & Sudan face revolt or civil war
-NATO/ISAF forces leave Afghanistan, Taliban overruns ANA and creates a state consisting of Afghanistan and NW Pakistan
-Shabaab merges with AQ-Yemen and AQ-Maghreb, opens continent-wide war against AU & NATO
-No action in the Persian Gulf, all sides bark but no one bites


That is all.

[Talo alle udaa]

Its amazing the impartial analysis of all things except puntland

[Alphanumeric]

Do you think NW Pakistan is already in the hands of the Taliban? Would the Pakistani army vacate, if ISAF leaves the region?

Most of your list makes sense. Some of my predictions have come true, but they were pretty apparent beforehand.

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

What did I say offensive in relation to PL?

All I said was that Faroole would take a run at the TFG leadership, which would have a high probability of success. And that Puntland would see new leadership (I don't know that's even remotely impartial). And lastly I stated that South Mudug & Galguduud would be incorporated into PL, which is highly probably since all of them share the same culture and business routes, and most importantly since they have a common enemy - and I stated that NATO would propose the idea, not the locals.

[tightrope]

BRITS STEALING PUNTLAND OIL?
HAVE THEY FORGOTTEN ABOUT SAYID MAXAMED ABDILLE HASSAN AND THE DARWISH?

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

Do you think NW Pakistan is already in the hands of the Taliban? Would the Pakistani army vacate, if ISAF leaves the region?

Most of your list makes sense. Some of my predictions have come true, but they were pretty apparent beforehand.

Forget NW Pakistan, all of Pakistan including the Shia areas have strong Taliban influence and sometimes even presence. In time, the Taliban will be as synonymous with Pakistan as they are with Afghanistan. There are three distinct Pakistani demographics; the small urban liberal elite, the poor conservative majority whom are enslaved by the liberal elite, and the newly-mobilized conservative masses of the north. Slowly, the northerners have been creeping into mainstream Pakistan, to the point where the Taliban control major cities as far away as Lahore by proxy - this process is known as "Talibanization" and it is sweeping Pakistan. Within this decade the entire country will be ruled by the Taliban or a closely-allied faction (the Talibs have dozens of small copycat factions in Pak). The Haqqani Network from NW Pakistan have brought the US to its knees just across the border, they alone will do tremendous damage to the Pakistani establishment. In short, Pakistan is fucked from all angles.

[KingMJ]

The British seem to be causing quite the excitement among snetters

[Nanees]

END OF DAYS 12/21/12

[Shirib]

Israel will attack Egypt

talk to me when it happens

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

The British seem to be causing quite the excitement among snetters

With good reason. They grew their balls back after their triumphs in Libya (huge oil & development contracts alongside a rare military victory). The UK is trying to reestablish their hegemony in Africa since they know the Americans are a long ways away from getting involved in the continent. The Brits are only competing in Africa with China, France, and more recently Turkey. Its virgin territory and the Brits want to stake claims before the US looks towards the continent.


Shirib, you may be onto something but it won't happen. Despite Hamas being a wing of the Muslim Brotherhood, all Egyptian "Islamists" including the self-titled Salafis have all proclaimed their lasting harmony with Israel. The only thing that could trigger a war is the fact that hardline Israelis in parliament have pretty much stated that Palestine is not getting a state anytime soon, so we may see Egyptian sympathy towards the Palestinians and a conflict, but its really unlikely since Israel should be focused on Iran.

[Garuun]

Monk

Gaddafi was abonded man ,he had million times more weopon and money than somalia, but then he lacked the celestial clout..

British was bombarding somalia in 1920s when our grandfathers led by the late sayid maxamad cabdulle "Mad Mullah" fought the imperial aggressors ,we lost NFD and Ogaden, but we victory was ours. now it seems history is only repeating itself..The colonials are on march again

here is intresting article .

http://allafrica.com/stories/201112270471.html

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

Garuun,

Libyans made me understand how much smarter Somalis are than many other peoples around the world. Even defense analysts stated that "Somalia would make Afghanistan look like a playground." The Libyan Armed Forces were a joke to begin with, and their "rebel" rivals were an even bigger joke. The brain of a Libyan is a tiny, fickle thing - these people looked absolutely retarded in front of the camera. Even with all the weapons and a loyal 100,000-man army, Gaddafi would not last long. He sent 90,000 heavily-mechanized troops against a few thousand Chadian militias in 1987 and he was humiliated; Chadians killed over 7,000 of his men while he managed to kill less than a thousand Chadians, meanwhile Chad was a broken, divided nation.

The only comparison between Libya and Somalia is the method of intervention and the reasoning behind it. Otherwise, they are vastly different scenarios with vastly different likely outcomes.

[Shirib]

^^^ lol I wouldn't say smarter, but better fighters. If Somali's are good at one thing, it's fighting.

[Monk-of-Mogadishu]

^^^ lol I wouldn't say smarter, but better fighters. If Somali's are good at one thing, it's fighting.

I'm not talking about combat, I'm talking about the general mental capacity that the Libyans displayed on camera throughout the conflict. These Libyans are totally oblivious to the world around them, as well as to the historic precedence and implications of interventionist conflicts.

Numerous times I've heard Somalis speak with wisdom. Hell, even Caydiid's khat-driven supporters made references to subjects of colonialism, imperialism, and a range of complex "big picture" topics in relation to the US/UN intervention of the early 90s. I saw raggedy little darkies telling CNN shit like, "They want to divide us and take our resources" and meanwhile these Libyan boneheads are running around making peace signs to cameras. There is no comparison. I've come to terms that Arabs are completely devoid of genuine intellect. You should see an Al Jazeera clip where an Egyptian poli sci professor gets schooled on Somali issues by a young Kenyan gov adviser. I cringed at how dumb this Arab geezer was, and kind of shocked how well-informed this Kenyan dude was.

[qoraxeey]