Postby Steeler [Crawler2] » Fri Sep 09, 2005 8:02 am
Qudhac
I know more about Ethiopia than I ever wanted to. The Oromo are about 60-40 Muslim Christian. Like the Somalis, they are fractured into competing clan factions. That is why, despite their numbers, the highlanders have always been able to control them. Religion is certainly not going to be a unifying force among them, since they aren't unified by religion. So the "Cry to Jihad" strategy won't work. In fact, as we see from Sheik Aweys, the cry to Jihad never works in East Africa. Real material and political interest trumps religious interest every time. Even that most powerful of East Africa Jihadist figures, Said Mohammed Abdulah Hassan was unable to unite the Somalis. Uniting all the Muslims there (or any other group for that matter) is not possible.
Furthermore, whle the Oromo constitute a plurality of the Ethiopian population they don't constitute a majority. Even when you add in Somali numbers (which are small - roughly 6%) you are still dealing with a minority vice all the other population groups. The current regime, in a pinch against the low-landers, can count on the Amhara, the Afar, the Tigre. And the Tigre control the money and have the weapons (which is eveything in warfare). The ONLF, AIAI-O, and OLF are FAR too small to challenge the government openly. They're not even trying. They are fighting an asymetric campaign because it is the only optoin open to them.
Don't get me wrong, I am not sympathetic to the Meles regime, but you need to make sure you don't allow emotion to taint your analysis. While a full blown civil war in Ethiopia is certainly possible. It is almost certain to lead to a disintegration of the state and vicious internecine conflict like we have seen in Somalia. If the Tigre can maintain control (with the Amharas) of the critical state infrastructure and maintain a functioning mlitary, then it would be a rough war indeed for the Oromo and Somali populations that foght the Ethiopian military.
In this case, it is my opinion that warfare is not the answer. It wll only further impoverish a desperately poor people.