Greater Somalia

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

OK, let's talk about 1977. A brilliant Somali campaign. The Somali military leadership recognized some key things:

a. That Dire Dawa was critical, because the rail junction there was vital in moving military supplies into Ethiopia.

b. That controlling Dire Dawa would make Ethiopian control of th Ogaden untenable.

c. That the groun in the Ogaden region is mechanized terrain. That is, it is optimized for mechanized warfare given the ability to see and shoot a long way on much of the ground and given the distances that lend themselves to mobile warfare.

d. The Somali armored force was well organized and powerful. The largest armored force in sub-saharan Africa.

HOWEVER against that:

a. The Somalis did not have a good maintenance structure to support it. Maintenance and logistics for armored formations is a huge undertaking.

b. The Somalis misread the political map. Somalis have always exagerated their self importance in the grand scheme of things. Ethiopia has a larger GNP and population base. If a sponsor has to choose between Somalia and Ethiopia, Somalia will ALWAYS lose.

The Ethiopians were not being beaten because Somalis are "better fighters" or any other such nonsense. They were being beaten because they were fighting armored formations in terrain well suited for armor and their own armored formations were sorely lacking. This is first and foremore the reason why Somalis had a temporary advantage. That Cuban airborne assault behind the Somali lines in Jijiga was brilliant. It cut off the armored formations source of re-supply. Without FUEL, food and ammunition, the juggernaut quickly ground to a halt and the jig was up. This was Somalias last, greatest chance. BUT, if you want to analyze it honestly, you have to see that the Somali advantage lay strictly in it's superior armored formations. It will NEVER have that kind of advantage again.

Having said that, there is a possibility that Ethiopia, being a somewhat artificial state, could break up. In that case, the Ogaden would probably fall into Somalias lap - IF Somalia had a government. But this isn't something Somalia can cause. And the more it tries to cause it, the more it binds the different Ethiopians together. If Ethiopia can develop true democratic governance (and I know it's a big if) THEN that would diffuse the tribal tensions there. If not, those tensions will persist and could cause a collapse of central authority. But before you irredentists start rubbing your hands at the prospect of such, a development like that would most likely start a civil war and, given the dimensions and armament involved, it would be a very ugly one for the people of the Ogaden. Not good.

[X.Playa]

What the fock is Ogaden anyway??? The Ogends don't settle in almost 78% of this land.

If Ethopia collapses and every clan take his share of this land , this Ogaden fantasy will have less then 25% of that land, there is no doubt somalis will have this land in way or another, but how this land will be divided and along what lines??

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

Playa
What do you mean "there is no doubt Somalis will have this land"?? They have it now. The Somalis are the ethnic group that lives on that land. The vast majority of the people living in the Ogaden are Somali. But that the border will ever be redrawn so that a centralized Somali government will govern the Ogaden as well - there is a LOT of doubt about that. Same with the NFD.

[X.Playa]

Mad Mac,

Despite Ethopia's claim on this land , few of the Somalis there regard themselves as part of Ethopia. Ethopian adminsteration is a post there and a garrison or a fort there thats about it.

For example all Hawiye who live in Western Somalia and this is the right name for it and not the misnomer "Ogden" are more inegrated into the genreal Hawiye poilitics and they hardley even speake Amharic , if a conflict occur they will go to Muqdisho to solve it and not Addis.

Same for the Isaaq when few months ago there was a war between 2 Garxajis (isaaq) sub-clans where 25 and 19 were killed from both sides Hargaysa elders solved their conflict and interfered.

The Essa go to Jabuti for their affairs and not Addis despite the fact they constitute the majority somalis in Diri Daba. Same for the Harti Daarood in Bokh and Galadi their affaris is run by Puntland.

So this land is not what you think its, economically 95% of the people in this part of somalia is integrated within the Somali economy. In the event of break up of Ethopia there will be no need for a centeral somali goverment every clan will take his land to its part of Somalia, the Isaaq to Somaliland, the Daarood to puntland, the Hawiye their share of western Somalia to their part of somalia.

There will be no need for a central goverment to ingerate these people as they are already ingerated.

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

Playa
I have spent quite a bit of time in the Ogaden actually. In Jijiga, Gode, Kebri Dehar..... With the exception of Dire Dawa, all of these places are VERY Somali and you are right, commerce and culture all are tied to Somalia proper. And that is never going to change. I agree.

But that the legal borders will be redrawn, I doubt that. It's not a question of whether or not they should, just a question of whether or not they will.

[Gedo_Boy]

MAD MAC,

Somalis have always had more of a warrior spirit than the Highlanders.......maybe b/c of the rough terrain, culture, tribal org. whatever..........but I have read about British officers documenting how terrified the Ethio military was of the Mad Mullah's bands.

It's quite possible that this whole idea called Ethiopia will disintegrate.........they have been too cut throat for too long........If you are cunning & play by Machiavellian, as Ethiopia has done for so long...........then I would hope that Reconing Time doesn't land on this generation.

It's being split apart at the seams.......

Somalia is Somalia's worst enemy.........Ethiopia might be fuel to the fire, but the fire was stoked by Somalis.


Besides, this is the 3rd World, I remember maps from a kid that said 'USSR' on it......where is it now?


This is Ethiopia/Somalia...........even if the East African map was redrawn & Ogaden became a part of Somali proper............guess what?

Your Starbuck's latte will be the same price, gas prices won't change, leather loafers in Italy will be the same price.

It might make page 2 of the New York Times.

[gurey25]

Mac from what little info i could gather about the 77 war.
Somalias strategy was not really that good, even though we had a larger armoured force, we didnt use it aggressivley.
Probably due to soviet approach to war.

Instead of micro managing it from moqadishu they should have given the generals in the front a free hand.

and yes you are right the Cuban attack was excellent,
it was the first aerial envelopment using air-mobile armour.
another thing thats puts somalis in the history books along with the british use of aircrafts agaisnt the Mad Mullah in 1920.



But MAC Never Say Never.
Ethiopia had a headstart its airforce was set up in 48 with swedish help,
from the 50's onwards they had american millitary aid and training.
Our mechanized forces only formd in 64 when the first Soviet instructors arrived.

It doesnt matter how big a headstart the ethiopians get, a reconstituted Somalia if properly run, can catch up.

Even with greater resources you cannot predict the outcome of war.

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

"Your Starbuck's latte will be the same price, gas prices won't change, leather loafers in Italy will be the same price.

It might make page 2 of the New York Times. "

Gedo, truer words were never spoken.

Gurey
There is a lot of international pressure to resist redrawing Sub-Saharan Africa's borders. This is because Africa has more linguistic groups by population density than any other countinent in the world. A LOT MORE. Hence trying to untangle that and create stateletts for every ethnic group would be mission impossible. And recognizing violent movements by recognizing the causes they espouse would just encourage more violent movements. So, unless Ethiopia disintegrates (which, admitedely, is possible) I don't think you will see the borders redrawn. That's not to say that I think they are fair or just, but they are what they are.

[X.Playa]

If Ethopia disintegrated and every ethnic group decided to have their own region and run it alone or run it allied with one or more groups, i don't think the rest of the world can do anything about.

For instance suppose Ethopia collapsed and the Somalis in those areas joined proper somalia and proper somalia just extended its land further west and the Ethopian ehtnic groups didn't mind letting somalis go their own way.

are you telling us Mad Mac that the rest of the world would care and wouldn't recognize these new borders... even if they don't who cares, facts on the ground doesn't need a recogintion at all.

[Cilmiile]

Mad Mac,

Your analysis was spot on. But it wasnt a Cuban assault that wrecked the Somalis. It was a Warsaw Pact one. Cubans were just foot soldiers. The Organization, planning and logistics were provided by the Soviets and their commander General Petrov who later went to commmand Soviet forces.

And you are right, Somalis will never rule Ogaden. The question will they gobble up more bit of Somalia proper

Xaarplaya,

What are on about? Somalis in Ogaden are ruled from Somaliland and Puntland? You are the most obtuse guy on this forum by far.

Somaliland and Puntland are controlled from Addis never mind a couple of nomads fighting over a few camels.

When Hargeysa administration was afraid of Wadaad uprising, They requested Ethiopian soldiers to guard the presidency, tv and radio station and ports and airports.

And then they snapped their fingers and ordered Cabdilaahi Yuusuf and Riyaale to stop hostilities and mount a joint operation against the wadaads.

When Meles asks a Somali politician to jump, they say how high.

And those Garxajis tribes, wherever their dispute was adjudicated were legitimizing their claims each by claiming that they were paying Gibir in that particular desolate corner of the Ogaden for such and such length of time.

[Lacageylacag]

Cilmiile is right. puntland and somaliland at this point in time are ruled from Addis not the other way round.

But Mad Mac....the million dollar question is What was the colonial official thinking in drawing such borders?

It is like forcing two species of animals, goat and cattle to be one, fenced.

[X.Playa]

Candhoole,

Your Qurjiile complex will never cease , your entire brain cells is affacted by your wet dreams of the Mad Mullah. where have i said, puntland or somaliland run western Ethopia??

What i said was and its as above that these people on this region still regard themselves parts of somali and not Ethopia, be it conflict resolution , aribetrations , economics etc.

Now next time before you oraly fart your qurjiile brain out read carfully before you defacate prematurly.

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

Playa
You need to re-read what I wrote. I said "short of" Ethiopian internal collapse. That means, if Ethiopia collapsed, then yes, I can envision a redrawing of the borders.

"But Mad Mac....the million dollar question is What was the colonial official thinking in drawing such borders?

It is like forcing two species of animals, goat and cattle to be one, fenced."

Lac
The borders were established originally during the Berlin conference of 1885. And Ethiopia participated in that conference, the only indigenous African state to do so. Ethiopia delineated it's borders, the colonialist states didn't know any better, so everyone agreed. Ethiopia was created as an Amharic empire. That's the legacy.

After WW II there were two things going on that led to the recognition of Ethiopia sovereignty over the Ogaden. First was practical. Ethiopia was a big, productive state. Somalia was a small, unproductive one. Secondly, the Ethiopian government had been screwed by western apathy in the conflict with Italy. There was some degree of war guilt there. Put the two together and you end up with political expediency that screwed Somalia out of territory that rightfully should have been ceded to Somalia.

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

BTW if you drive the road between Harar and Jijiga there are still plenty of wrecked armored vehicles. I wish I could have had someone with us who fought in the battle and knew the details. The area near Jijiga has heights from which you can see forever. It's no wonder that when the Cubans seized Jijiga and got artillery on the dominating heights that the SNA was in for big trouble. The high ground dominates the surrounding area and the narrow passes means that a relatively small force could secure the area against attacking coming from the direction of Harar. I enjoyed that drive, although the road is not in the best shape.

[fagash_killer]

[quote="gurey25"]Mac from what little info i could gather about the 77 war.
Somalias strategy was not really that good, even though we had a larger armoured force, we didnt use it aggressivley.
Probably due to soviet approach to war.

Instead of micro managing it from moqadishu they should have given the generals in the front a free hand.

and yes you are right the Cuban attack was excellent,
it was the first aerial envelopment using air-mobile armour.
another thing thats puts somalis in the history books along with the british use of aircrafts agaisnt the Mad Mullah in 1920.



But MAC Never Say Never.
Ethiopia had a headstart its airforce was set up in 48 with swedish help,
from the 50's onwards they had american millitary aid and training.
Our mechanized forces only formd in 64 when the first Soviet instructors arrived.

It doesnt matter how big a headstart the ethiopians get, a reconstituted Somalia if properly run, can catch up.

Even with greater resources you cannot predict the outcome of war.[/quote]


mengistu payed some generals and gived all the information of their army and were they are stained and shit siyaad barre on his turn hanged those generals and thats how the qabiil thing started mjs were already pissed off when he hijacked the goverment, and they had the opportunity to create their own ssdf rebelgroupone of those traitors was abdallah yusuf.it was the worsest century for somalis i salute those patriotic generals who refused to surrender to ethopia. and when they saw they couldnt go nowhere they commited suicide, poor generals they didnt knew that they were beeing stabbed in their back. and that was the beginning of somaliweyn and a victory to ethopia years later snm usc spm.