We all witnessed the warm welcome that was given to the courts, known collectively as the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) for getting rid of the Xamar based warlords and bringing a level of peace and security.
Indeed, we (Somalis) had high hopes at the time, but as we have all come to witness during this ICU short existence those hopes of lasting peace and security have been dashed by the rapid consolidation of power on the part of hardline elements within it.
“Hardliners like Hassan Dahir Aweys, virtual monopoly on coercive and financial assets has allowed the hardliners to outmaneuver moderates and dictate policies.”
...And since assuming central roles within the ICU, these very hardliners turned the very ideology of this movement on its head.
So it is fair to say with them wielding power now all peace loving people are at a threat, because I know for a fact as long as radicals such as former al-Ittihad leaders Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys and Co. exercise effective control over the ICU, they will never agree to negotiations with the TFG. Their openly declared goal is the establishment of an Islamic state across the Horn of Africa with a twist needless to say.
As of now though, the ICU threatens the TFG on it own home turf and so far because of this Somalia is at the brink of civil war; the only ally that so far promised to walk the walk when push comes to shove is Ethiopia...Now!
Ethiopia has three basic alternatives for dealing with the crisis:
1. Full-scale intervention to defeat the radical Islamists; Ethiopian troops try to enter Mogadishu and help the TFG establish itself there.
2. Limited intervention to stabilize the situation and isolate the radical Islamists, followed by negotiations to include moderate Islamists in the Transitional Federal Government. UN-sanctioned peacekeepers could then be brought in. Ethiopian troops would not try to enter Mogadishu.
3. Negotiation only; No intervention: Unilateral withdrawal of existing Ethiopian forces; imposition of a tighter arms embargo, and diplomatic initiatives to promote negotiation between the TFG and the UIC. If negotiations fail to resolve the crisis, Ethiopia could follow a containment policy and (A) wait for the UIC to implode due to internal clan, economic, and religious divisions, or (B) defend itself within Ethiopia against an expected radical Islamist jihad to recover "western Somalia" and against additional foreign-sponsored subversive activities
The first alternative would be a disaster and must be avoided. The last alternative, (negotiation and defensive containment along the Ethio-Somali border) would be reasonable under normal circumstances when dealing with a sovereign state. But giving the radical Islamists and their foreign allies a free hand in stateless Somalia is an abdication of responsibility. The end result could be far more costly to Ethiopia (and Somalia) in the long run.
But this is the alternative recommended by the experts of the International Crisis Group (ICG), and many, (if not most) knowledgeable western observers.
...But the ICG's recommendation for negotiation without intervention has no chance of success...I mean what do they care if Somalia ceases to exist since their safe and sound from any harm. Only a relatively small number of western tourists are at risk, and few western economic interests are at stake. However, were Somalia located on the border of the United States or any of the European countries, the same experts would not hesitate to recommend decisive intervention. But Ethiopia does share a long border and history with Somalia, and its vital interests are at stake.
