I will not make a unanimous decision that one entity caused the trigger of Ethiopia's invasion in Somalia, but what I am interested in finding out is your disinterested views on the recent development in Somalia. Let us be real at this time and let us not express our viewpoints behind a facade of Somali nationalism. First, I will give you the opportunity to read one paragraph of Dr. Ismail Ali Ismail's long piece on the rigid socio political crosscurrents in Somalia.
ICU Mistakes And Miscalculations
It is a self-evident fact the ICU made a number of mistakes; and the first mistake related to the composition of its leadership; for its most visible leaders belonged to the same subclan and even the same sub-subclan. It was a mistake on their part to think that religion transcended affiliation and loyalty to the clan particularly, as in their case, where religion and politics were enmeshed. Because of this, many Somalis thought that the ICU contained the seed of its own destruction. The second mistake was its public expression of sentiments regarding the unity, not only of Somalis but also of Moslems in the Horn of Africa as a whole. In Africa there is little, if any, difference between an expression of sentiment and a statement of policy and the pronouncements of ICU sent danger signals to both Ethiopia and Kenya both of which have substantial Somali and Moslem populations. When a regime emerges from the ashes of civil war or as a result of coup d’etat the first thing to do is to assure one’s neighbours of peace and good neighbourliness, and the rest of the world that international treaties and agreements would be observed and respected. The third mistake was to give an ultimatum to Ethiopia and embark on a campaign of rapid expansion to all southern areas culminating in laying siege to the headquarters of the TFG.
The ICU was apparently a collection of religious zealots – a religious fraternity perhaps – who were evidently unschooled in state-craft. They sought to impose on the nation their own vision of an Islamic state but did not know the politics and the mechanics – the nitty-gritty, if you like – of translating their dream into reality.
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