The Monitor (Kampala)
ANALYSIS
March 28, 2007
Posted to the web March 27, 2007
Angelo Izama
Kampala
The President of Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) Abdullahi Yusuf cancelled a visit to Kampala on Saturday.
The day before he was scheduled to travel, a missile shot down a cargo plane carrying supplies to the UPDF, which so far remains the only contingent of AU troops in Somalia. The hostilities are set to increase and with it the death toll (civilian and military). Movement in Mogadishu according to the United Nations is virtually impossible.
It is this situation that the two Presidents, Yoweri Museveni and Abdullahi Yusuf, would have discussed according to reliable sources at Uganda's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It appears clear that the most challenging issue in Somalia today is how to start a dialogue between all groups. This was one of the conditions set by the Ugandan Parliament when it approved the deployment of the UPDF. The Army Spokesman, Maj. Felix Kulayigye, has described the situation on the ground as "fluid".
Apart from the mayhem, here are some disturbing developments; none of the other African Union countries that pledged troops have honored their promise. Creating a multi-country force at the earliest was another of the conditions set by the Ugandan parliament. Secondly, the Hawiye clan, one of the four main clans in Somalia and the dominant group in the capital Mogadishu has released a statement calling the Uganda People's Defense Forces "invaders".
The statement, released on March 20th, warned that UPDF troops, leading an African Union peacekeeping mission, risked sparking off mass killings. At the very least this makes the environment around the UPDF even more hostile. The army had earlier said this influential clan was a friendly ally in Mogadishu.
The change in the attitude of the Hawiye has attributed by the Chief of Defense Forces Aronda Nyakairima to a faction within it. Nonetheless, it means a lot as far as the future of urgent dialogue is concerned.
The Hawiye, according to reliable sources, are resentful of the continual influence of the Darod clan that has historical ties to Ethiopia. Abdullahi Yusuf is a Darod as was former Somali President Said Barre.
Inevitability, the longer national Somali dialogue is delayed, the greater the perception that Uganda's support for the TFG, and Yusuf is construed with the lenses of the protracted feud between the rivaling clans. Elders of the tribe who met on Monday have pledged themselves to national talks. Until that time the UPDF should remain off the streets of Mogadishu and allow security to be guaranteed by local clan ceasefires.
