Extra troops enter Somali battle

[XXX SNIPER XXX]

Hundreds of extra Ethiopian troops have arrived in the Somali capital Mogadishu to reinforce an offensive against Islamist insurgents and local militias.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/6516693.stm

let the real party begin

[galia]

We will cut their supply lines

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

Galia
You won't be able to. To cut supply lines would mean you would have to be able to hold ground, and you can't. You can harras their supply lines, but that's probably the best you can do under the circumstances. You can not defeat the Ethiopian Army in the field. It's too large, better organized, more lethality. The best you can hope for is that it gets tired of the fight and packs it in.

[galia]

Good Point Madmac, but we can spread the war on other regions of somalia, to scatter the ethiopian forces.

The longer the ethiopians stay the more the kill, the more pressure they shall see.

Ethiopian state is starting to crumble, the rebel groups see the evnts in somalia as their chance to overthrow the Tigre Tribe.

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

"Good Point Madmac, but we can spread the war on other regions of somalia, to scatter the ethiopian forces."

That won't work. Mogadischu is the center of gravity and the Ethiopians know it. If some rebel group takes control of a town somewhere, the TFG will send sufficient troops out to squash it, but the Ethiopians will keep their main effort in Mogadischu. You don't have the forces to spread them thin.

"The longer the ethiopians stay the more the kill, the more pressure they shall see."

This is your best bet. How long will the Ethiopians be willing to keep their forces in the field? That costs money, and if it is also costing blood, the Ethiopians might decide the juice isn't worth the squeeze.

"Ethiopian state is starting to crumble, the rebel groups see the evnts in somalia as their chance to overthrow the Tigre Tribe."

This is unlikely. Really, again, wishful thinking on the part of some Somalis. Could it happen? Sure. Meles government is not representative and there are a lot of groups oppossed to it. But the Ethiopian Army probably only has two or three divisions in Somalia. What seems like a lot to you, is not a lot to them. So I would not expect it to happen.

[Wiil_Soomaali]

You have to know that there is a major power struggle in Ethiopia.meles is carefully to throw evrything into Somalia,some generals could take advantage of that ,marching those troops to Addis Ababa instead,cause its alot af power prestege and American dollar in this dirty game.No more national intrest,its greedy world.Its not clean Ethiopian troops we see in Somalia.They are illegal mercaanry forces conducting and serving western intrests...We could witness a dramatic change in this as even Meles his own Tigrey movement wants to overthrow him.He dont trust nobody ,and the Ethiopian people are. sick and tired of him..Plus you have the Meles former Mentor Azzias Afawerki thats just waitng for the right moment with the biggest army in Sub_Sahara Africa..Its explosiv in the Horn.

[galia]

Hey madmac have u noticed that the Mj that control the TFG have started tensions with many other clans heavily armed in central somalia.

For example the Mjs have excluded the sacads from any power sharing, don't u think that this could shift the war into serious clan warfare, bear in mind that sacads and other clans in central somalia are still heavily armed and can easily take on the Mj militias.

If this happens Puntland can find themselves battling several clan militias, and the peace agreements made in 1996 could collapse, making citys like Galkayo as battle grounds between clans.

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

Wili
Again, there is a lot of wishful thinking going on here. Afwerki is not going to attack Ethiopia. His Army is too small. It did well in defensive battles against an Army that maneuvered poorly. But if it not large enough to go on the offensive.

It is possible that the Tigre led government comes apart. Possible, but the situation in Ethiopia poltically has been the same for a long time. The events in Somalia are dramatic for the Somalis, but not the Ethiopians. This is small time for them.

So while your hopes remain POSSIBLE, they are not PROBABLE.

[Wiil_Soomaali]

Mad.
Afawerki and Eritrea has a bigger army than Ethiopia for the moment.thats fact.

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

Wiil
WRONG. NOT A FACT. NOT EVEN CLOSE. Ethiopia has a much larger Army. FACT. I know the orders of battle for both.

[galia]

Hey madmac is right the eritreans will never attack ethiopia and the ethiopians don't really care wat happens in somalia, they acn't even protect themselves from Melez zenewi massacres on them.

The best chace somalis have is keeping up the stiff resistance till the ethiopians more drys out and also we have to spread to war on the Mjs.

[Steeler [Crawler2]]

Galia
Trying to attack Puntland is a mistake. You will not intimidate the Majertains, more likely you will provoke harsher responses. Mogadischu is the alpha and the omega, and you would be wise to expend your resources there and there alone.