Postby Steeler [Crawler2] » Wed Apr 25, 2007 7:45 am
Take what you want from this and edit it:
The political situation in Somalia has moved past the critical stage into vicious open combat between competing clan factions, foreign powers and an Islamic political movement. Somalia has had no political cohesion or effective central government since the civil war whiched toppled the government of Mohammed Siad Barre. The subsequent internecine conflict caused the loss of hundreds of thousands of lives in 1991/2, culminating in international intervention. This intervention ended in 1995, failing to secure a Somali central government.
In the last year, the US has accused Islamic militants of providing safe haven for members of Al Qaeda responsible for the attacks on the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar Es Salam, as well as the attacks on tourists in Mombassa in 2002. In the quest for security, more and more Somalis in southern Somalia embraced the Islamic Courts, who began to enforce Shari'a law. Although Somalia has a Sufi tradition, Salafist philsophy has made headway in anarchic Somalia, as it has globally within the Islamic community. Last year, the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) gained significant momentum and was able to seize control of Mogadischu and the rest of the Benadir region. During the second half of 2006, this momentum continued, and the expansion of their control continued throughout southern Somalia. This put the ICU in direct competetion with the secular Transitional Federal Government, brokered by the international community.
ICU rhetoric indicating a long term goal of incorporating the Ogaden Region of Ethiopia, which is ethnically Somali, into a greater Somali state, caused concern for Ethiopia. The Ethiopians saw as their natural ally the TFG, a Darood dominated movement. Additionally, the ICU was dominated by the Hawiye, specifically the Haber Gedir sub-clan of the Hawiye. Thus although it has an idealogical agenda, the composition of the leadership caused suspicion among non-Haber Gedir Somalis. Nevertheless, it had a string of successes in seizing control of different cities until the TFG was left with parts of the Bay, Bakool and Gedo regions. The major population centers in southern Somalia had come under ICU control.
As the ICU continued to threaten the TFG and the military situation was rapidly becoming untenable for the TFG, the Ethiopian Army intervened. The ICU was rapidly defeated in a series of fast paced battles, probably aided by US aircraft. Within a week, Ethiopian forces were in Mogadishcu and the ICU had dispersed. The ICU then initiated an insurgency against Ethiopian and TFG forces. This conflict, in which the civilian population is largely participating, has become extremely vicious, displaying all of the hallmarks of a classical insurgency - counter-insurgency. Civilian casualty rates have been high, property damage significant, and there has also been significant associated population displacement.
The outcome of the conflict remains unclear, but it seems probable that eventually the Ethiopians will weary of the violence and withdraw. When that happens, the TFG will not be able to sustain itself in Mogadischu. It too will be forced to withdraw and will probably come apart at that point. Southern Somalia will then likely see a resurgence of internecine conflict as the external enemy that drove the Hawiye together disappears.
Thanks
