Good step you guys. This civil war is endless and the for the status quo to change, we must in the end resort to political settlement for this endless clan, and sub-(sub-subclan) competition for power. I generally agree with the federal formula and I think in the end, in a federal Somalia, it is inevitable for the Xaayoow Hawiye to be in a single group. Keep in mind when I say Xaayoow Hawiye I am describing a linguistic, geographical local which includes the Mudulood, Murusade,etc.
However you need a person like to me to come in and help you guys seperate the wishful thinking from the reality. Surprisingly I don't have a lot to contend since you guys already realize Mogadishu and its own district is going to be a special zone seperate from regional control but I would like to say this.
Lower Shabelle is not going to be part of a state which includes Middle Shabelle.
We are in the civil war and we have to realize the reality. Darood, Minorities, Habar Gidir, Dir (Biyamaal of Marka) are not going to allow Lower Shabelle to be joined with a Middle Shabelle that strengthens Mudulood. This is the most obvious problem. You might not like me saying so but look beyond the messenger and seriously think about this scenerio. Who will be opposed to this? Darood will be. Minorities will be who like Shirib said do not share a lot in terms with the groups in the other region beyond Geledi. Habar Gidir will probably be even more opposed then the Darood, since Mudulood supra-hegemony directly threatens them more then it does to Daroods. So let us look at possible scenerios.
Personally I believe Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle will join into a region. It is natural. Hiiraan does not fit into greater Mudug (with whatever federal states in that area going to be comprised of Mudug and Galgaduud) and it is neither going to fit in with Bay and Bakool. Almost all of the Xaayow Hawiye including Mudulood, Murusade, are also based in Hiiraan and there is a lot of interaction between them and Xawaadle.
In the final equation I think it will be inevitable that Middle Shabelle and Hiiraan are going to unite. They share accent, clans, inter-dissecting pastoral grounds, and face the same trials and tribulations and the same concerns. Also, it supports the premise that every federal State shall have access to the sea, which I am sure will be a powerful point in any political negotiations centered around these states.
As for Lower Shabelle, I am almost certain this region will be joined Bay and Bakool, who not only share the same regional dialect (in the only regions where May May is majority used), have the same composition of fragmented federated groups and as well supports the premise that every federal state shall have access to the sea.
Puntland has access, Mudug and Galgaduud both have access to the sea, a region composed of Hiiraan and Lower Shabelle will have access, Bay/Bakool/Lower Shabelle will have access, and the natural state of Jubbaland will have access at the port city of Kismaayo.
In the end this is more practical federal model that is reflective of the realities on the ground. However, I am interested to hear your responses.
