Somaliland Elections 2015 Predictions

[Salah Al-Din]

Kulmiye Ucid Waddani
Clan Support Clan Support Clan Support
Habar Jeclo Ciise Muuse Habar Yonis
Dhulbahante Sacad Muuse 1/2 Habar Cafan
Maxamed Case 1/2 Makaahiil 1/2 Makaahiil
Warsangeli 1/2 Habar Cafan 1/2 Arab
1/2 Arab Ayuub 1/2 Ciidagale
1/2 Ciidagale

Kulmiye Ucid Waddani
Regional Support Regional Support Regional Support
2/5 Burco 1/5 Burco 2/5 Burco
Lascanod 3/4 Berbera Odweyne
Caynaba 1/2 Sheekh 3/4 Ceerigaabo
Gar Adag 5/8 Hargeisa 1/4 Berbera
1/2 Ceel Afweyn Gebilay 1/2 Sheekh
Qorilugad 1/2 Borama 2/8 Hargeisa
1/4 Ceerigaabo 1/2 Salaxley 1/2 Borama
1/6 Hargeisa Wajale 1/2 Salaxley
Lughaya Arabsiyo 1/2 Baligubadle
1/2 Baligubadle 1/2 Ceel Afweyn
Maydh


If the Sacad Muuse can vote as a block in favour for Ucid, as the above breakdown indictates then Jamal will be the next President of Somaliland. However, the Sacad Muuse clan has never been known to vote as a block as the previous elections indicate and therefore if Waddani is successful in capturing a chunk of the Sacad Muuse vote then Cirro is the new President of Somaliland. Kulmiye, although the most diverse political party, will most likely lose even if the Sacad Muuse vote is split between the 3 political parties due to the fact that Dhulbahante & Warsangeli do not have any political weight during elections as most of their districts will not hold any elections do to instability. Never the less, Kulmiye will win the most seats in the House of Representatives as they did in the local elections. This will not, however, translate into helping Silanyo win the presidency because of the need for change.

[theyuusuf143]

MPs elections is always hard to predict.

But my predictions on presidential elections is

1. Awdal: kulmiye viktory
2. Marodijeh: Ucid viktory
3. Sahil: ucid viktory
4.togdher: kulmiye viktory
5.Sool: kulmiye viktory
6.Sanag: kulmiye Viktory

( victory= landslide or majority)


Wadani will not win the over all votes of any region but they will get large chunk of votes from each region especially togdheer and sanaag. When it comes to sanaag Hy have to make a tough decission to vote for Irro because many wants to elect silanyo to complete the road, Silanyo will defenitely get the majority of Hj and harti votes of sanaag, MARK MY WORDS ! .

[theyuusuf143]

Unlike the other two parties Ucid is completely unpopular beyond berbera. So while they are able to win 2 regions they will heavily lose the other 4 . At the other hand wadani wont be able to win any region but they are extremely popular in all Somaliland regions.

[MrPrestige]

Nah all Eastern H-Y are united behind WADANI in Sanaag. No one will vote for Siilaanyo because of a phony road Lol.

[Salah Al-Din]

The Yusuf you are being delusional if you think Ceerigaabo residents will not vote for Cirro. Regardless of who comes to power the projects will continue. Same way the 10 Million donated by Kuwait for Hargeisa Airport continued after Udub lost.

The thing is I'm looking at which party has the momentum & their base. Ucid has not consolidated their base and is still lacking any momentum. Waddani currently is the least diverse but has their base on lock and is getting some steam in making play for other constituents like Gebilay. Kulmiye is hemorrhaging support and their current candidate does not instill confidence with the Somaliland public. Boqor Buurmadow has made sure to etch in every Somalilander that Silanyo is senile old man who has no clue what is going on. Lastly, the Warsangeli & Dhulbahante vote is statistically not relevant in Somaliland elections. Yes, there is voting in Lascanod but there is not enough votes to tip the scale in any direction.

[LeJusticier]

Alaah yalcanuu Eydoor, they have no vision and ideological concerns, just voting as a block based on Habro.

[theyuusuf143]

Salah aldin

While I agree with you the road project may not stop there if kulmiye leaves, most sanagians prefer kulmiye as they dont have any guarantee from the other 2 parties yet. Keep in mind this is not like kuwait fund project, it must be funded from Somaliland national Budget. I am well aware of that Hy are majority in erigabo, irro's clan affiliation with them is very strong. How ever hj+harti are atleast half of the city. In addition to that erigabo is not as large city as it sounds, in fact both elafweyn and badhan have similar population number. dont forget garadag the MADINAtu munawara of kumiye .


We all know silaanyo is a old man and he dont even have the ability to campaign him self, but we should not under estimate the power of his ministers and his party. Kulmiye is very diverse party with many heavy weight politicians. Especially hartis, samarons,habar awal and arab politicians in kulmiye are obviosly stronger than their opposite cousins. I just said ucid may win marodijeh but its not really easy if they dont work very hard. Ministers like zamzam and sheikh samale can not be defeated by people like cali gurey jamal needs to fix his entire team.

[Salah Al-Din]

Le Justicier, I know it is very unfortunate brother, but the Gar Adag conference has shaped the trajectory of Somaliland politics for the foreseeable future. Further, the people have not screened the opposition as what they will do better? All that will happen is they will use a mixture of clan loyalty and the promise to do away with the corruption, nepotism and dictatorial tendencies of Kulmiye only to repeat the same thing once in power. We have a few more election cycles to go before the public will come to realize this farce of a democratic process where political parties use the electorate's appetite for change as a vehicle to get into power only to renege on those promises they made during the campaign.

Of course, it is not to say all political parties do not have support in all regions of Somaliland, I just highlighted the core voting block of each political party. We need to help people to understand if you are a farmer, it is better to vote for a farmer like that, rather than a clansmen who is a nomad as their interests do not intersect. We have a ways to go.

[HusseinHassan]

can't isaaq be something without the need to attach itself to dhulos and warsangeli, two sub clans of darod?

[Salah Al-Din]

Yusuf, I honestly don't know who will win the election 8 months from now; however, I am certain it will be one of the opposition members simply because Kulmiye has lost their base. Yes they are the most diverse, but if you loose your base what good is it? Arab & Sacad Muuse was the base along with HJ. They only have HJ left as a base. You have to understand it is not about winning regions but about actual votes in the presidential elections. This is why I said Kulmiye will most likely win the parliamentary elections, since the votes are not combined through out all of Somaliland, but stay in each region as opposed to the presidential votes which are tallied at the national level.

Waddani is the least diverse, but they are fast changing that perception with the flirtation with Gebilay. Ucid needs to get the majority Sacad Muuse vote in order to have a chance, but chances are this will not happen; which leaves Waddani enough room and the momentum to capture the presidency. You are simply discounting the appetite for change. Nobody wants another 5 years of a sleeping President that has no idea what is going on.

The Dhulbahante & Warsangeli again will vote for Kulmiye but they cannot tilt the election in any parties favour like the Samaroon. Further, the Samaroon will be split between Ucid & Waddani. Kulmiye will only have the Maxamed Case.

[theyuusuf143]

can't isaaq be something without the need to attach itself to dhulos and warsangeli, two sub clans of darod?

Dir and harti waqoyi are habraha odayaashooda, we will turn to each an other without them, I wonder why Mjs can not leave them alone ?

[HusseinHassan]

can't isaaq be something without the need to attach itself to dhulos and warsangeli, two sub clans of darod?

Dir and and harti waqoyi are habraha odayaashooda, we will turn to each other without them, I wonder why Mjs can not leave them alone ?

[thegoodshepherd]

Harti kulaha!!
dhiloyahay magacayna afkaga kala bax idoork aad ahayed waas.

[HusseinHassan]

Harti kulaha!!
dhiloyahay magacayna afkaga kala bax idoorkad aheed waas.

what he meant is harti is like the husband of the three habro.
without the husband, the habro will turn to each other; full lesbian mode. lol

[theyuusuf143]

"You are simply discounting the appetite for
change. Nobody wants another 5 years of a
sleeping President that has no idea what is
going on"

Well very small number of people likes silanyo, not even habarjeclos like him personally any more. The magic magnet is the brand it self. in Somaliland kulmiye is like a Manchester united or coca cola, they are popular than other ones , appear more on TV, they have the best political stars, they can buy new political stars any time. They have better loyalty schemes, power and plenty of other attractive things. Not every Manchester united supporter likes Ryan Giggs, in fact majority of them wants him gone. same like that even if kulmiye brings the blind Dr dixood as their presidential candidate, most supporters will remain loyal for the party. Loooool