Let's for a moment think about if Somaliland decided to rejoined Somalia, What would the incentive be?
I know there are some pro unionist landers.
But I want to know what the anti Somalia snetters and southerners think.
Under the UN, IGAD, AU EU or ANY other country diplomatically you have not left Somalia, Somali republic, or whatever you call that god forsaken country. politically, however, the republic is dead to you and not sure if ever you will come back.
However, everyone knows IF and it's a big IF you leave, it could instantly sh**t can turn sour like south Sudan or Eritrea. Wich, in reality, is the most plausible way things will turn out.
I also believe, xamar does not want to control Hargeisa, It really doesn't. PL and the other mini-statelets are more than a mouth full. Somaliland, (i.e.the north) knows that they will be in the coming decades capital poor. By that I mean it can't get the billions needed to invest in social investments, in schools, hospitals, and welfare as the climate changes.
xamar, if and still is a big IF, get it shit sorted out and not be pimped by Arabs, USA, AU, etc. Its concern would be the symbolic attachment to the IDEAL the Somali Republic and would yield and give Hargeisa political freedom on the international stage like China and Hong Kong one country and two systems. fundamental rights and the definition of nature of being a Somali or can be Somali, xeer stuff, religion, culture, freedom of movement ( in reality to the south from the north). Somaliland would get finance from the outside IMF and world bank as a country and liability limited to it as well.
xamar would have to give some of the oil, uranium, natural gas resources to the north either directly or informs of large capital investments in infrastructure spending, that it could not get on the international market. This can be debated 70/30 40/60 50/50 etc.
over the long term Somaliland would economically be as rest of the statelets. It currently has a GDP of $1-2 billion while Somalia as a whole has $6-8 billion. Bearing in mind south-cental has for the 26years been in a perpetual civil war.
in summary, the north would need the south economically as climate change and population takes hold and the south can tell itself hold the last bastion of Somaliwenye together.
