Whilst so-called 'Federal Government' obsesses over Somaliland, Ethiopia takes their Jubba & Shabelle rivers

[Futurist]

[Futurist]

This is where the water in the Jubba & Shabelle rivers will go

Ethiopia is planning to have 22 dams on the rivers that go into Somalia

To fully capture the water for irrigation - NO WATER will be left for Somalia




The master plan, which was finalised in 2005, has also identified six large dams together generating 1 000 MW and with combined storage capacities of 10 371 Mm3 . The plans include also water supply for increasing and urbanizing population of 15 millions. According to the Ethiopian master plans in the Genale-Dawa River Basin, 10 medium and large scale schemes with over a million hectares of potential irrigable land areas were proposed for irrigation consuming a large amount of water available in the basin [10]. The master plan, which was presented in 2007, identified 22 dam projects for potential hydropower development.

Department of Land and Water Resources Engineering
Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
River Basin Management VII 139

[Xildiiid]

The goal is not just the hydroelectric potential that the dam offers but to alter the demographics of the lowlands (Somali region) through catchments and irrigation schemes that would make the land more suitable for agriculture and thus attract non Somali Ethiopians to this underpopulated region. You kill two birds with one stone. On one hand demographic change would disrupt separatist sentiments in the region and it would it challenge Somali claims to their own resources.

For Somalia it wouldn’t change much, maybe affect her agricultural potential in the long run but one thing is unquestionable and it’s the geopolitical leverage Ethiopia has when dealing with Somalia.

Btw, Somaliland is done!

[JSL3000]

The goal is not just the hydroelectric potential that the dam offers but to alter the demographics of the lowlands (Somali region) through catchments and irrigation schemes that would make the land more suitable for agriculture and thus attract non Somali Ethiopians to this underpopulated region. You kill two birds with one stone. On one hand demographic change would disrupt separatist sentiments in the region and it would it challenge Somali claims to their own resources.

For Somalia it wouldn’t change much, maybe affect her agricultural potential in the long run but one thing is unquestionable and it’s the geopolitical leverage Ethiopia has when dealing with Somalia.

Btw, Somaliland is done!

How is Somaliland done when it's not even in that equation.

We don't depend on ethiopia for water while zoomalia does.

If you ask me zoomalia doesn't have defined borders so it will be eventually absorbed by ethiopia and kenya.

[UgaaskaBarakaysan]

I'm sure the secessionists would love for our rivers to dry up, but that won't be the case.

The current admin in Ethiopia and the current admin in Somalia have a good working relationship and if any issues arise an amicable solution is definitely a simple proposition. It is also important to note that Ethiopia and Somalia are part of the African Convention on the Protection of Nature and Natural Resources. The convention requires the contracting States to coordinate the planning and development of water resources projects. Section V of the original convention from 1968 encourages setting up inter-states commissions to study and resolve problems arising from the joint use of these resources. With Ethiopia already on the cusp of military confrontation with Egypt regarding the Blue nile Dam, which is a much, much larger project they will definitely move cautiously regarding other moves that can cause damage to relationships for decades due to shared water resource disputes.
This would in theory have a direct effect on the shabelle river but not the Jubba river. Because it is more than 3x the size of the shabelle river. Also A dam on the Juba is actually a net good because it smoothens the flood/drought cycle, providing a steady flow of water across the seasons. Ethiopia cannot really use the water of the Juba because the area in which it flows is mountainous and not suitable for large agricultural development very much like the area near the Blue Nile dam. Once again The Juba has almost 3x as much water as the Shabelle, so impounding it behind a dam will not result in as much evaporative loss.

Ethiopia did a great service for Jubaland, flood risk in Jubaland is now a thing of the past. But alas this isn't official and the freshwater bodies in southern somalia are flowing like it has for millenia.

The Jubba river enters the country through the Gedo region, traversing many districts and flows all the way down into the Indian ocean through here.

[JSL3000]

Ask daddy abi ahmed zoomalia will be absorbed by ethiopia and kenya end of story good riddance Italian zoomalia.

The obsession with Somaliland is for real let them haters hate they don't got nothing else.

[Khalid Ali]

This is not our concern abiye Ahmed policy towards Somalia and Ethiopia long term survival is much more in the interest of Somaliland. Somalias enemies are not necessary our enemy. The same way we wouldn't give a shit about egyptian nile issues.

[Futurist]

@UgaaskaBarakaysan

I'm sure the secessionists would love for our rivers to dry up, but that won't be the case.

You may choose to believe that, but that doesn't make it true. If wishes were horses, beggars would ride. The reality is that if Ethiopia chooses to dam the Jubba & Shabelle rivers with 22 dams and reservoirs, they WILL dry up or at least significantly reduce flow to South Central Somalia. That is a certainty.

The current admin in Ethiopia and the current admin in Somalia have a good working relationship and if any issues arise an amicable solution is definitely a simple proposition.

Good working relationsthip? A simple proposition? Are you on crack, or are you an Ethiopian? Don't be an idiot. Ethiopia's government always acts in the interests of the Tigray-Amhara-Oromo alliance, against Somali interests. They don't care about Somalis and Somalia - and I don't blame them.

It is also important to note that Ethiopia and Somalia are part of the African Convention on the Protection of Nature and Natural Resources. The convention requires the contracting States to coordinate the planning and development of water resources projects. Section V of the original convention from 1968 encourages setting up inter-states commissions to study and resolve problems arising from the joint use of these resources. With Ethiopia already on the cusp of military confrontation with Egypt regarding the Blue nile Dam, which is a much, much larger project they will definitely move cautiously regarding other moves that can cause damage to relationships for decades due to shared water resource disputes.

Yet more bullshit. Ethiopia has no regard for international law or agreements. It made no consultation with Somalia, it did not ask for its input, it did not share any technical details. There was no consultation by Ethiopia, no technical committee from Somalia, no consideration of the down stream communities.It just went ahead and built the dams. So stop lying you f-king Ethiopian agent. We see through your lies.

This would in theory have a direct effect on the shabelle river but not the Jubba river. Because it is more than 3x the size of the shabelle river.

You are being intentionally misleading and saying stuff that's factually INCORRECT. We are talking about between 10 and 22 dams, that Ethiopia is building on the rivers that flow into Somalia. You are intentionally trivialising this issue, which any reasonable observer can tell is of huge security importance for South Somalia.

The dams are great for Ethiopia and a CATASTROPHE for South Central Somalia. Only an Ethiopian would say otherwise.

Also A dam on the Juba is actually a net good because it smoothens the flood/drought cycle, providing a steady flow of water across the seasons.

yes it does smooth the flood or drought cycle, but for Ethiopia, not Somalia. It takes months or in some cases years to fill the dam reservoirs. Which means that during those drought months, the water will be diverted from The Shabelle and Jubba into Ethiopia's reservoirs. Little water will actually go to downstream communities in South Central Somalia. So while Ethiopia uses the water first to generate electricity and then to irrigate is massive cash crop plantations, South Central Somalia will be left high and dry, inevitably leading to famines during periods of drought like the 2011 famine. It will become an arid dust bowl region.

As for flooding. Flooding is a natural phenomena and a natural part of river basins and natural water drainage systems. It is normal. Flooding is not the problem. Humans building on flood planes is the problem. Secondly, of course if you dam and use the rivers inside Ethiopia and no water flows to South Central Somalia, it logically follows there won't be flooding in Somalia as there won't be rivers. But that's not a true solution. It's like throwing the baby out with the bathwater to stop it crying, or cutting off your arm to stop an itch. But I agree, permanently removing rivers in South Somalia will stop flooding. But it will also stop agriculture, irrigation and water consumption in South Central Somalia.

Ethiopia cannot really use the water of the Juba because the area in which it flows is mountainous and not suitable for large agricultural development very much like the area near the Blue Nile dam.

Again you are lying. Why would Ethiopia dam the water if it has no use for it? Why would it borrow BILLIONS of dollars to build countless dams, if it has no use for it? Do you take us for fools? Of course Ethiopia will use the water. That's why it's building miles upon miles of CANALS to take the water from the reservoirs to industrial scale sugar and other plantations. That's why it has made agreements with international investors where the water will be used to irrigate massive Ethiopian, Chinese, Arab and Israeli food plantations. That's why it has built power lines to Kenya to export electricity which it will generate from the Jubba and Shabelle rivers.

Once again The Juba has almost 3x as much water as the Shabelle, so impounding it behind a dam will not result in as much evaporative loss.

Again another lie. Evaporation is a function of the volume of water in a reservoir, there will be immense evaporation loss, particularly on the Jubba river. What's worse is the nutrient rich soil and silt that comes with the rivers and naturally fertilizes South Central Somalia's agricultural will be gone forever. Food production yields in South Somalia will fall off a cliff.

[Xildiiid]

The goal is not just the hydroelectric potential that the dam offers but to alter the demographics of the lowlands (Somali region) through catchments and irrigation schemes that would make the land more suitable for agriculture and thus attract non Somali Ethiopians to this underpopulated region. You kill two birds with one stone. On one hand demographic change would disrupt separatist sentiments in the region and it would it challenge Somali claims to their own resources.

For Somalia it wouldn’t change much, maybe affect her agricultural potential in the long run but one thing is unquestionable and it’s the geopolitical leverage Ethiopia has when dealing with Somalia.

Btw, Somaliland is done!

How is Somaliland done when it's not even in that equation.

We don't depend on ethiopia for water while zoomalia does.

If you ask me zoomalia doesn't have defined borders so it will be eventually absorbed by ethiopia and kenya.

Somaliland is a stable failed state while Somalia is an unstable failed state. They’re both shit!

[JSL3000]

The goal is not just the hydroelectric potential that the dam offers but to alter the demographics of the lowlands (Somali region) through catchments and irrigation schemes that would make the land more suitable for agriculture and thus attract non Somali Ethiopians to this underpopulated region. You kill two birds with one stone. On one hand demographic change would disrupt separatist sentiments in the region and it would it challenge Somali claims to their own resources.

For Somalia it wouldn’t change much, maybe affect her agricultural potential in the long run but one thing is unquestionable and it’s the geopolitical leverage Ethiopia has when dealing with Somalia.

Btw, Somaliland is done!

How is Somaliland done when it's not even in that equation.

We don't depend on ethiopia for water while zoomalia does.

If you ask me zoomalia doesn't have defined borders so it will be eventually absorbed by ethiopia and kenya.

Somaliland is a stable failed state while Somalia is an unstable failed state. They’re both shit!

Stop being emotional you don't make sense a failed state is failed state.

Somaliland is not a failed state zoomalia is the definition of a failed state.

[Xildiiid]

^
Wake up and smell the god damn coffee. Somaliland is a failed state!

[JSL3000]

Go find out the definition of a failed state first.

[gobdoon]

It's true future wars would break out over water rather than patrol and that water is more expensive and precious and basically there is no enough on the planet and that it makes sense we should defend and protect our water sources I am sure Ethiopia have every right to utilise water coming from their highlands but there must be international agreement
Egypt have relied the Nile for centuries and always chooses war over any country interfering it's flaw while Ethiopia maintains they have every right to use the water as they see fit
All and all there has to be solutions and water resources should be shared