EU ❎ foreign policy on Somalia (EU FP= German -->French FP). Remember Galmudug Elections; Ethiopia & US uniqueness, &

[Gubbet]

Don't let anyone fool you; there are only 2 countries that are privileged with the ability to effect "independent" change in Somalia.

1. The US, which can carry weight speaking independently on Sonalia
2. Ethiopia, who has the authority to act independently in Somalia
3. They both support Farmaajo's mission.

Quickly;

A. Somalia ironically has something going for it that developed from one of our biggest problems with Somali affairs. This is one lf those "cloud in silver lining" thing.

Somalia has beem so badly destructed and even almost cursed with natural catastrophes as bad as the man made ones----THAT SHE IS UNDER AN INTERNATIONAL FRAMEWORK THAT IS PROBABLY UNIQUE IN THE WORLD FOR THE AMOUNT OF HANDS REACHING IN EQUALLY AS PART OF THE INTERNATIONAL FAMILY.

Basically the amount and diversity of involved partners is a sort of a "check and balance" on some disproportionately powerful one of them turning Somalia into something likes Sierra Leone or Liberia or Chad, etc.

2. The EU in particular has no "FOREIGN POLICY" on Somalia.---principally because German is not evem a factor in Somalia and it is not a former French colony where France would try to act through nthe EU.

If Germany and France are not involved---the EU does not have something called a "Foreign Policy."

EU's role in Somalia is based on 2 issues; ~1.) Prevent another famine like 2011 2.) and stop the migrant flow.

Neither of those things dependend on the political calculations.

They are not points with qualifiers.

What the EU is sayinf is really irrelevant on the politics od the day absent the voice of the US And UN.

It is just some lip aervice to general democratisation taking point whethe it is even appropriate to this or not.

3. Remember Galmudug Elections; that was another case when thwre was no agreement on communique---but what did US do? They quickly acted independently and took command of the international position.

The US has already spoken by not speaking on the issure this far.

4. With the US, the UN is neutral and without the UN, there is not evem a thinly veild legitimacy for acting or independently reaching on Somalia.

5. The Madasha still have a chance---you can go and get Denj and Madoobe back and say "hey guys fock 2nyears---sign the papers now , let's try to defeat now." or you can move out of the way.

6. Lastly, some individual Xildhibaan somewhere in the world spoke is not worfh the dignity of a response.

[grandpakhalif]

Why is Secretary of State Blinken freaking out?

https://www.state.gov/somalia-the-unite ... xtensions/

[Gubbet]

Grandpa, we are all under the impression Villa Somalia hax totally ended all participation in talks ---but rhete is a reason for my second to last point thar says teol Deni and Madoobe to come.

I was looking for the exact US response to judge ro what extent I believed there was leveraging at work.

IMO there is leveraging at work here that says all of this was done to compel Deni and Madoobe to immediately participate and do so differently understanding how strongly bthe world sees it.

[grandpakhalif]

Grandpa, we are all under the impression Villa Somalia hax totally ended all participation in talks ---but rhete is a reason for my second to last point thar says teol Deni and Madoobe to come.

I was looking for the exact US response to judge ro what extent I believed there was leveraging at work.

IMO there is leveraging at work here that says all of this was done to compel Deni and Madoobe to immediately participate and do so differently understanding how strongly bthe world sees it.

This is a crossroads in Somali governance Farmaajo must not cave in under the pressure. If in the event sanctions are placed I wonder against who?

[Gubbet]

It is a classic AUDIENCE VS. CONSTITUENCY case. I will update you in that topic.

[ReturnOfMariixmaan]

The IC is divided and the SFG definitely wouldn’t make this move without contingency plans as well. I’m not too worried myself. This is them calacaaling. After a few months, they’ll come around as well. Abiy and Uhuru did much worse. And they were fine.

[Gubbet]

Grandpa I responded to your question here;

https://www.somalinet.com/forums/viewto ... 6#p4997386

[Sbashi]

So it is leveraging? Some guy in somalispot talked about how this isn't real law because upper house didnt have a hand in it. And the parliament needs to override upper house decision by super majority of 2/3 if the upper house rejects it once the law is passed to them.