Breaking News: Massive Military Offensive By The TFG

[abdisamad3]

insha-allah the mujahedeen will win..no matter how many gaalo nations you bring on your side..you can never beat those who have allah on their side..

[AbdiWahab252]

Abdisamad,

So who is behind the attacks in Bosaso ?

[abdisamad3]

^^I dont know..iam not in bosaso..

[galia]

I heard that a Puntland military head escape assassination

[The_Patriot]

IF the TFG forces are close to 10,000 then it would be end of the road for Shabaab.
Shabaab cannot make a tacticle withdrawal and initiate a guarille warfare cos the only place that was safe for them was the Juboyinka and not any more.

For a group to be victoriuos they need a civilian backing so far Shabaab have non apart from few that are well known to be chamelions.

BAy and Bakool is the easiest place and it will fall without significant resistance cos the locals know how to play the game.
So is Gedo, Xamar and Kismayu.

The most safest place for Shabaab is S/Hoose and they will encounter some resistance from Cayr.

As for the Juboyinka the Shabaab are counting on it as the final aboard however what they will meet will shock them to the core.
Once the TFG take over Juboyinka the Shabaab will try to blend into the locals and it will fail miserably as the locals hate them to the core and Madobes militia will be scavenging on their remnants and Raskambooni will be no more a hiding place for Shabaab.

So far lets see how the war picks up in Xamar, I dont expect much resistance from Shabab though, I guess Shabaab want to use the same tacticle withdrawal of 2006 but will it work? cos the civilians would not by their crap.


So far this is not a Jihad but a war for power and dormination gone are the days when the ragtag militia of Shabaab were called the custodiansd of Somalia.

[gurey25]

Dear armchair warriors, the reality on the ground is nothing close to what we entertain ourselves with. The shababs will be here to stay for sometime to come. Whether we like it or not, the best thing that can happen to al-shababs is Ethiopian invasion. Their recruitment and wealth hit the roof during the last invasion. The verdict is clear, Somalis will fight the Ethios to the end. It is not only the Somalis but the public in middle eastern countries are in this war with tons of money.

I am in Somalia right now and the guy sitting beside me just told me that the shababs in Bulo Burde confiscated and shredded his family's picture which he held onto for so long. The irony is that because of the peace and tranquility the shabab's brought to the region, it was the first time he drove from Mogadishu to Bulo Burde since the war started. You lose your civil rights under these guys, not your life unless you rub them the wrong way.

So if the Ethiopians and the Americans help Sh. Shariif disperse the shababs temporarily, who is going to rule the country for him? Who will stop Arab and Pakistani/Afghani involvement? Who will be able to tell the Ethiopians to behave and leave when their services are no longer needed? I am not and never been pro-shabab but these guys are stake holders in Somalia and cannot be brushed off that easily.

About Sheik Sharif, I always believed Somalia is not ready for a national government. I still believe like his predecessors, sheik sharif is not a Somali president but a faction leader. The leader of the weakest faction to be precise. Somalia needs regional administrations first and foremost. You cannot build a house without a concrete foundation.

hit the nail on the spot..
excellent post, clearly the closest to reality.

[AbdiWahab252]

Waryaa,

Regional administrations are not a feasible alternative in Shabab Somalia. They view Somaliland, Puntland and Galmudug simply as secularist fiefdoms that need to be taken over and ruled by them. If it were not for the Ethiopians or NATO, they would have succeeded in their mission.

As for the future, it is no longer in the hands of Somalis. With the TFG, they are beholden to foreign interests i.e. Western ones. Al Shabab are beholden to Al Qacida interests and will see their Somalia being used for furthering the Al Qacida agenda in East Africa and the Middle EAst. So all in all, neither the Shabab nor TFG have any direct control of their affairs but are merely proxies in a greater game between the West & Al Qacida.

[gurey25]

Abdi you are again wrong.
Alshabab is not a threat to somaliland at all, maybe a small threat to Puntland becuase the islamists have been suppressed there, large parts of somaliland including Burco the second city can be said to be islamist anyway.

a successfull Islaimc courts union would have spread easily to somaliland, but not alshabab.

and ofocourse they are of no security threat apart from terrosist acts like assasinations and suicide bombings.

[AbdiWahab252]

Gurey,

Who is going to resist them ? Burco, Las Canood are two places that have provided hundreds of fighters to Shabab. SOmaliland's authorities may down play the danger but the 5th column of Shabab is waiting.

Shabab have affliates all over Somaliland/Somalia and are biding their time. All these affliates are simply waiting for their allies to cross the vital redline, Galgaduud/Mudug border and once that occurs it will be a clean sweep into the North.

Shabab have been preoccupied with seizing Mogadishu and if that occurs, it will free up their resources to move elsewhere.

[The_Patriot]

AW who is o be blamed I guess Shabaab.
everyone knows Sharif is a sellout but come on Shabaab were supposed to exploit this to their advantage.
They should have got popular support and intiated a productive administration.
All Shabaab have done so far is to make the Somali citizens look like dhimis.

Tell me how possible is to when a group alienates its people how they are supposed to be supported.
Enough is the claims of Shabab fighting Ethiopians how many times have we seen Ethiopians entering towns and Shabaab vacating it.
the other thing is this same people do not beleive in borders and each time are chanting threats to Xabashi and Kenyati yet we dont see them crossing over the border when we know well that in that other part too Somalis leave.

The botom line is Shabaab are just there to escalate the somali misery.

[AbdiWahab252]

Patriot,

What were you expecting from a Dugsi Teacher ? He is way in over his head and lacks any credibility.

This ain't the same guy who was issuing "Heavenly Diplomas" to youth to fight the Ethiopians under the UIC and doesn't make the same kind of fiery speeches against the Khawariiji.

I strongly believe that he is simply here to collect cash and frustrate the efforts to destroy the wadaadists by dragging out the war and frustrating the antiWadaadist elements.

[The_Patriot]

Patriot,

What were you expecting from a Dugsi Teacher ? He is way in over his head and lacks any credibility.

This ain't the same guy who was issuing "Heavenly Diplomas" to youth to fight the Ethiopians under the UIC and doesn't make the same kind of fiery speeches against the Khawariiji.

I strongly believe that he is simply here to collect cash and frustrate the efforts to destroy the wadaadists by dragging out the war and frustrating the antiWadaadist elements.

OK enough with the Sharif but lets look at Shabaab supporters here this embiciles want us to beleive that since shabaab brought peace then they are exonarated from all crimes. If thats the case then how are Shabab different from North Korea?

[gurey25]

you dont get it..
i dont blame you its probably becuase of watching too much american television.

giving too much credit to mythical groups like alqaeda or trying to make alshabab or any other future evil group too much power and influence.

Burco and many parts of somaliland are already as islamist as they can get,
al-shabab are just another minor islamist group in the north, they do not have a unifying appeal that the islamic courts did.

[Murax]

You know the problme with the TFG? Say like in 2006, with the help of outside forces they capture all of Somalia. Instead of winning over the population, acting like a Government, acting responsibly, they will give all their soldiers qaad and allow them to rob, rape and terrorize the shacbi to the point Where they dream for Shabab. Then Shabab carries out their extrajudicial killings, takfir, and a bunch of things that have no basis in the Shari'ah to the point Where the shacbi dream for their exit, and the same cycle repeats again. I mean its like Somalis are not allowed any decent Governance and are stuck between a rock and a hardplace.

[The_Patriot]

Did you guys listen to the BBC?
I mean the bbc presenter karbashed the shabaab spokesman.

He was asked questions like why are their no developments in the regions you took over like building of hospital etc the guy replied that they first need to free somalia from the enemy then he was asked you mean villa somalia and mog airport is hampering thebuilding of mosques in the regions they occupty the guy started attacking the presenter.