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2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

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RovingMadness
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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby RovingMadness » Tue Oct 04, 2011 4:10 am

Part of the deal between PL & the TFG calls for the deployment of Puntland troops in Southern Somalia under the command of the TFG. This is why the TFG Chief Of Staff is overseeing the selection of these troops that should number anywhere from 1500-2500. They will most likely get trained in Ethiopia by the AU for their eventual deployment in Southern Somalia.

For those of you that are thinking of a deja vu to AY's deployment of PL militias in Southern Somalia in 2006, creating a security nightmare for Puntland that ultimately led to it's loss of Sool, Sanaag & Ceyn to rival Somaliland in 2007 and the current streak of political violence- this is exactly what it is. And to top it off, Puntland will as per the TFG-Puntland deal allocate ~40% of the oil profit to the TFG. :lol:

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby Voltage » Tue Oct 04, 2011 4:14 am

Majerten are not stupid to sacrifice their children to their graves.

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby RovingMadness » Tue Oct 04, 2011 5:22 am

:lol:

Faroole is desperate for the Oil Deal and it works out for everyone :up:


¶2. (SBU) In a July 23 meeting in Dubai with Somalia Unit
Poloff, Puntland President Abdirahman Mohammed Mohamud
"Faroole" appeared to back away from his earlier support for
closer cooperation with the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG). "Faroole's" statements of support for the TFG appeared
especially hollow against the backdrop of his criticism of
TFG leadership during the July 23 meeting and his reluctance
to commit to meet with TFG President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh
Ahmed. "Faroole" told us that a proposed August meeting with
President Sharif was under consideration but that nothing had
been agreed. (Note: Contacts, including TFG Prime Minister
Sharmarke and Somali Ambassador to Kenya "Americo," have told
us that "Faroole" had agreed to an early-August meeting in
order to discuss the deployment of Ethiopian-trained troops
from Puntland to Mogadishu in support of the TFG
.


One protracted issue remains oil contracts in Puntland. Several TFG contacts tell 
us the TFG is willing to negotiate a percentage of any potential profits from Puntland oil exploration if "Faroole" will agree to honor oil contracts that pre-date the Somali 
 


http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/07/09NA ... .html#par4

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby Murax » Tue Oct 04, 2011 7:21 am

1500 or 15000 PL troops will not make a difference in Mogadishu :lol:

The last ones that came to Mogadishu chilled around villa Somalia drinking lemonade, and they will do the same this time. One thing soldiers have to have is motivation, and frankly they will not be too motivated fighting in Mog and rightfully so.



As for these AMISOM troops why is Faroole asking for them? 2000 AMISOM is a lot for just a "training mission"

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby Monk-of-Mogadishu » Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:12 am

Anything TFG gets from PL circulates back to PL. So far, Faroole has agents in the TFG at the highest levels, and he of course has PL. Sheikh Shariif has no bargaining chip, and only a year left. The next TFG might just be a PL monopoly like the previous one. And here I'm just entertaining the concept. It is far from reality. The cable is from 2009, when the TFG and PL had a cold relationship, and we all know that Shariif was in Garowe before Faroole set foot in Xamar. There is, in all likelihood, no chance that any PL soldiers will set foot in Xamar, it was supposed to happen early in Faroole's presidency but never occurred. The same cable also states that Faroole has zero trust in Shariif or the TFG, no way he'd trust them without knowing his promises end up back in his corner.

Faroole is not asking for 2000 AMISOM, I don't know where the figures came from. He requested a batch of AMISOM troops for a joint training program. He wants them to instruct PL troops in hardware and heavy machinery for his own security purposes.
Last edited by Monk-of-Mogadishu on Tue Oct 04, 2011 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby abdalla11 » Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:47 am

Faroole showed multiple times that it's his way or the highway.

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby Monk-of-Mogadishu » Tue Oct 04, 2011 10:56 am

Faroole showed multiple times that it's his way or the highway.
Couldn't have said it better. As stubborn as stubborn comes.

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby RovingMadness » Tue Oct 04, 2011 1:40 pm

PaidMonk,

If it was merely a training program for Puntland militias, the TFG Chief of Staff wouldn't have been in Puntland. Those troops will be trained and ultimately deployed in Southern Somalia under TFG control. The agreement between the TFG & Puntland was basically the endorsement of the Galgacayo Agreement between FatBoy Sharmarke and Faroole. It was not itself a new agreement and part of that agreement called for the deployment of Puntland militias in Southern Somalia. Faroole is desperate for the oil deal & he's willing to go to any distance in order to secure it and I think it works out for everyone.

About chips, well, a peaceful & stable Mogadishu is the ultimate bargaining chip. That and the strong International Backing Sharif enjoys. Faroole is seen as an obstacle and deranged by the US Government and every stake-holder in Somalia. I don't think he is as a threat to anyone. One of the cables stated Faroole being fixated with his image and publicity and suggested he be dealt with a manner that appeals to his ego without doing anything tangible to boost his stature. I see the TFG engagement with him as a remedy to the US psychoanalysis of.

Btw, you are turning Abdiwali into something he's not. The guy couldn't even muster the courage to draw up his own cabinet but had to rely on Sharif and Sakiin to hand-pick it for him. He is utterly spineless and the dynamics in Mogadishu are heavily tilted against him for him to act independently. It is one thing to have political opinions, it is quite another to implement them. Abdiwali is by all intents and purposes a simple accessory in Mogadishu.
Last edited by RovingMadness on Tue Oct 04, 2011 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby Monk-of-Mogadishu » Tue Oct 04, 2011 1:48 pm

The TFG and Xamar are not a bargaining chip - its what we're all bargaining FOR. If Shariif's clan or home regions were even slightly mobilized or organized he'd have a bargaining chip but with nothing under his name or his clan's name he's got nothing. Even if PL sends troops to the south, which is extremely unlikely, it will benefit PL more than anyone. 2,500 expected PL troops, with their hardware, will be the largest branch of the TFG militia, just as it was in 2004-2009. I can't see how this is against PL's interest to have the largest stake in Xamar and a measuring stick to prove it. Under "TFG" command is a loose term. PL troops came under TFG command during AY's years, but under their own PL command and generals - as will likely be the case again.

If Shariif had a bargaining chip we could discuss him and Faroole as equals. That's not the case. We know who buckles every time.

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby RovingMadness » Tue Oct 04, 2011 2:07 pm

Puntland having 2500 of it's troops is not going to benefit it. In fact, quite the opposite. It will create a security vacuum in Puntland enabling local groups to undermine the state. In 2007, Somaliland without much fanfare strolled it's way into a significant chunk of Puntland and dismembered, with Puntland unable to retaliate. Today you have clan militias and clan-Islamists fighting to bring down the Puntland State and they resort to political assassinations and even full frontal assualt against Puntland targets. In the likelihood of Puntland militias being deployed in Southern Somalia, it will only embolden those local groups to attack more viciously and threaten Puntland. This is why I said, this agreement has security implications and against Puntland. But Faroole is desperate for the deal and I can't say I hate it.

Actually, even if Puntland deploys it's troops in Southern Somalia, those 2500 troops will not be the largest clan militias in Southern Somalia. Actually far from it. The Marehan have at this current stage have at least 2000 clan militias fighting in Gedo with 1000 freshly trained being deployed couple days ago. Same situation with Xawadle who have close to 2000 being trained in Ethiopia right now. I am not even talking about those clan's auxiliary troops that supplement ASWJ and other groups. In Mogadishu, the 9000 TFG Troops are overwhelmingly Mudulood. The Puntland Militias will be deployed under TFG command and absorbed into it's chain of command. This is different from AY's days when the TFG troops were not properly structured. This is not the case today.

It's funny you talk about stature, the US Government is on record saying that Faroole should never be made Sharif's equal while also stating that any US Government's engagement with Puntlabd is strictly under the auspices of strengthening the TFG and not directly for Puntlabd. The UAE pointedly refused to accord Faroole with special status when he visited in 2009 and said he needed to have Sharif's blessing. The US Government in the above posted cable in facts states US pressure on concerned stake holders in Somalia to treat Faroole as a secondary figure. This is why Caalin with his small Galmudug is securing the same number of delegates as Puntland and is being propped up as Faroole's equal.

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby Monk-of-Mogadishu » Tue Oct 04, 2011 7:36 pm

Somaliland bought out a few Dhulbahante figureheads - I have no idea how you've turned that into some kind of spectacular military maneuver. It was smart politics, nothing to even do with timing. PL had all the military hardware up north do defend Sool but it wasn't in its favor to do so when the people of the city wanted PL out. I don't try to understand Banaadir warlord squabbles, I think you should stop trying to understand PL-SL-Dhulbahante affairs, its far out of your geographic base. I also have no idea how assassinations are "full frontal" anything - they're the opposite according to any vocabulary.

With 2,500 militia, PL would have the largest contingent in Xamar - no one is talking about Gedo or Hiiraan - those militias will only cover their regions. The idea that there are 9,000 "Mudulood" TFG militia in service is an absolute joke. They have absolutely nowhere near as much coverage as the PL militias did between 2006-2008, who were stationed everywhere from Bandiiradleey to Baydhabo at one point, and numbered no more than 4/5,000. The largest Mudulood factional commander, Maxamed Dheere, never had more than 60 technicals under his command, and he's been taken out of commission. What's left is Sheikh Shariif's old UIC faction, which is really nothing more than figureheads and their guards. Sheikh Shariif and the Mudulood clan have at their disposal roughly 600 (whom are decently trained) of Sharif's bodyguard and some clan loyalists, who have proven to be totally ineffective against Al-Shabaab. This TFG army in Xamar is a joke compared to the one that AY & Ghedi had - thus far we've only seen geriatrics in old military outfits and a few mercenary militias for an "army."

The same UAE that is fighting tooth and nail to open weapons import rights to Puntland demoted Faroole's status? I hope you're joking. You and I know that Caalin is Faroole's puppet, Faroole dragged him from his tiny abode and brought him to the world stage as another counterweight against Xamar-based opposition.

As for Cabdiweli, I thought only Voltage was left towing the line of him being subservient to the two brain dead Shariifs. I thought the last few months proved otherwise but if you insist on playing the stereotypical blind Abgaal I will keep stealing your shit in front of your eyes - thanks for covering up my tracks.

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby RovingMadness » Wed Oct 05, 2011 6:03 am

The basic and essential problem with you is that you have created this image of Puntland being a superpower & Faroole being some sort of a mystical leader in you head which obstructs and grossly hinders your ability to rationally & logically discuss any issue relating to Puntland.

In 2007, when Somaliland attacked Puntland, it did so militarily. Somaliland troops invaded a Puntland territory and systematically dismembered it without Puntland not even lifting a finger. Since 2007, Puntland has been threatening to attack Somaliland and win back the territory it lost- but it is both politically (SSC) and militarily (Somaliland) unable to do so. This whole dhulbhante thing is weird and a scapegoat. Puntland attacks and forces its will upon the Warsengali (Sh Atam) and Leelkase, what is stopping it from attacking Xasbsade and the other groups that are also hated by Dhulbhante? It's because it knows Somaliland will retaliate on a massive scale.

Abdullahi Yusuf's deployment of Puntland militias in Southern Somalia created a security nightmare for Puntland. On one hand it lost 3 key regions and on the other got exposed to a brutal campaign of terror. In addition, the will of the state has been weaken and local clan militias are waging a full scale frontal attack against Puntland forces and in fact pushing them back ( Leelkase fiasco in Galgacayo few weeks ago). These are all repercussions of the security vacuum created by Abdullahi Yusuf's deployment of Puntkabd militias to Southern Somalia. Faroole agreeing to transfer 1500-2500 Puntlabd militias to TFG Command is the final nail in Puntland coffin, IMO. you will ignore this because it makes it easier for you to sleep at night; but it's not preventing us from appreciating and understanding the dynamics on the ground.

Regarding Faroole, you are the only that supports him. Beyond his Cise Mohamud strand of the MJ Clan, the guy is a lonely figure without any actual backing. The US Government and other governments see him as an irrational political actor that needs to be subdued and controlled. The US Government in fact went as far as to utilize key Majerteen clan elders & intellectuals to pressure him. When he went to UAE and asked for presidential treatment, he was flatly rejected.

The TFG Consul General in Dubai told us that "Faroole" had requested 
and was refused presidential treatment and protocol by the UAE government during a recent visit to Dubai.


http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/07/09NAIROBI1604.html

The US Government actually went as far as to explicitly tell him that whatever Puntland gets is part of an effort to strengthen the TFG and not in itself a favor for Puntland. That's the ultimate embarrassment and an ugly diplomatic snub. This is precisely why Galmudug is getting the same number of delegates as Puntland ( despite clearly being smaller in terms of demographics) and Faroole was accorded the same treatment as Caalin in both Nairobi & Mogadishu. You are welcome to delude yourself, though :up:
Multiple Puntland contacts tell us that they are unhappy with "Faroole's" actions and assure us that most Puntlanders think unity with south-central Somalia is essential. 
 
¶8. (C) Comment: "Faroole" must be engaged in a way that does not embolden his secessionist tendencies or his ambitions to seek equal status with the TFG President. While it is important to assist Puntland more broadly, support to President "Faroole" must carefully be calibrated, in order to ensure that he does not  use such support, be it technical or security, to enhance his stature. Supporting the TFG constitutional process, which is to be headquartered in Garowe, as called for in the TFG-Puntland agreement, is one way to encourage "Faroole" to see his future as tied to the TFG.  We are making it clear to Puntland and to other Somali contacts that the USG supports the TFG and that support for Puntland is part of that effort.  We are encouraging colleagues in the international community here to do likewise. 



http://www.cablegatesearch.net/cable.ph ... 84&q=abgal

Faroole watched as FatBoy Sharmarked was booted out and he watched as the new PM guy was robbed of his constitutional mandate of independently drawing up his cabinet. That is the guy you are painting as a king-pin :?

About the Puntland militias in Mogadishu, are you suggesting that they will operate independently and implement their own wishes in Mogadishu? Loooool, you made me laugh there,bro. Those troops will be stationed in Mogadishu to kill multiple birds with one stone. In the event they go rogue, they will be melted faster than a butter on a frying pan.

As far as the clan composition and numbers of TFG troops in Mogadishu; well, the government has 9000 troops in Mogadishu right now. The overwhelming majority are Mudulood and operate as part of the TFG Command. One thing I give respect to Sharif is his strategy to organize and refocus the mentality and modus operandi of the Mudulood militias. From being undisciplined ragtag militias as seen during the days of Ghedi to nation builders. Mohamed Dheere, Haji Muse Sudi and others are a thing of the past a new breed is taking command. Our MPs, and other dignitaries are almost always present at the passing out ceremony for the foreign trained TFG Mudulood troops. My own uncles that have lived in the West throughout their lives are now going back and commanding not just TFG militias but even their own auxiliary troops and sitting down and drawing their own delegates as equals to Puntland and Faroole :lol:

After Mudulood, the biggest clan in the TFG Troops in Mogadishu is Xawaadle with few Troops from Bay & Bakool regions.

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Re: 2000 AMISOM troops to be deployed in Puntland

Postby FBISOMALIA » Tue Oct 11, 2011 12:50 pm

those amisom were deployed for securing shiekh dalxiis ass in garowe for the second somalia conference no more no less


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