SomaliNet Forums

so,it looks like this whole Kenyan show and incursion of somalia is about instilling Azania in Kismaayo.The Kenyan military spokesman just announced that they will march all the way to Kismaayo.Can they do it? if so big up to the Azanians,they getting the ultimate free ride by letting the fufu fight their battle

If they can't liberate it themselves how will they hold it?

Samadoon,

Ethiopia/Kenya both don't care about having a 'maamul goboleed' in Jubooyinka. If they were they would spend a lot more recourses into training and enabling troops from those regions to do the work themselves. The South has too many repeats of the same cycle. Some Religious group captures it, Ethiopians come and capture it. Ethiopians leave and the same group recaptures the region. Today again the same thing is gonna happen these Shishkabab guys will hide in the bush and the second kenya leaves they will recapture Kismaayo and the Jubbas again. If Kenya was serious they'd teach people to fish.



Btw, as soon as Kenya leaves I see interfighting between the Raskambooni/OG elements and the Marexaan "TFG"/Ahlu Sunnah elements, which will give Shishkabab a chance to regroup and recapture all the land Kenya has captured. What a soapopera.

Murax,i agree with the points u making.The south is too fragmanted to instill anything,however we have to admit Kenya sees Azania as a buffer zone from Al-shabaab,and they did actually train thousands of troops for the professor (Gandhi).This will perhaps reinvigorate the shababis as the the Ethiopian invasion created them,literally, but you dont believe the Kenyans conceived the idea of going into Somalia within few days or cuz of the tourists,do you? this is about advancing their interest and I cant think of any other project they have in the area right now.Its ultimately about Azania.

Yusuf Haji and Proffessor Gandi will liberate Jubbaland and create peace and governance.

i think jubbaland is suitable for large scale growing of tea,coffee and horticultural products.

Murax,i agree with the points u making.The south is too fragmanted to instill anything,however we have to admit Kenya sees Azania as a buffer zone from Al-shabaab,and they did actually train thousands of troops for the professor (Gandhi).This will perhaps reinvigorate the shababis as the the Ethiopian invasion created them,literally, but you dont believe the Kenyans conceived the idea of going into Somalia within few days or cuz of the tourists,do you? this is about advancing their interest and I cant think of any other project they have in the area right now.Its ultimately about Azania.

The reason I said Kenya/Ethiopia or whoever 'don't care' is because these are actual Countries, with thinkers, strategists, etc. I personaly do not think they are that dumb to think that they can come in with tanks, helicopters, etc. and then leave and these elements will be gone forever. Kenya has their eyes on some recourses in the deep South inparticular the coastline. They've went to international maritime bodies etc. to take their case there. I think the whole Azania thing in and of itself is a guise, and what they really want is some form of legitmacy to let them operate in Southern Somalia with impunity i.e destroying terrorists, helping Somalia form a regional government/stability.

Samadoon,

Ethiopia/Kenya both don't care about having a 'maamul goboleed' in Jubooyinka. If they were they would spend a lot more recourses into training and enabling troops from those regions to do the work themselves. The South has too many repeats of the same cycle. Some Religious group captures it, Ethiopians come and capture it. Ethiopians leave and the same group recaptures the region. Today again the same thing is gonna happen these Shishkabab guys will hide in the bush and the second kenya leaves they will recapture Kismaayo and the Jubbas again. If Kenya was serious they'd teach people to fish.



Btw, as soon as Kenya leaves I see interfighting between the Raskambooni/OG elements and the Marexaan "TFG"/Ahlu Sunnah elements, which will give Shishkabab a chance to regroup and recapture all the land Kenya has captured. What a soapopera.

Somali politics is like watching a bad cartoon over and over again.

Murax,

Its time to send these Galgaduuders home

Murax,i agree with the points u making.The south is too fragmanted to instill anything,however we have to admit Kenya sees Azania as a buffer zone from Al-shabaab,and they did actually train thousands of troops for the professor (Gandhi).This will perhaps reinvigorate the shababis as the the Ethiopian invasion created them,literally, but you dont believe the Kenyans conceived the idea of going into Somalia within few days or cuz of the tourists,do you? this is about advancing their interest and I cant think of any other project they have in the area right now.Its ultimately about Azania.

The reason I said Kenya/Ethiopia or whoever 'don't care' is because these are actual Countries, with thinkers, strategists, etc. I personaly do not think they are that dumb to think that they can come in with tanks, helicopters, etc. and then leave and these elements will be gone forever. Kenya has their eyes on some recourses in the deep South inparticular the coastline. They've went to international maritime bodies etc. to take their case there. I think the whole Azania thing in and of itself is a guise, and what they really want is some form of legitmacy to let them operate in Southern Somalia with impunity i.e destroying terrorists, helping Somalia form a regional government/stability.

If they couldn't get an agreement with the TFG on maritime borders then there's no point of going in and occupying those waters when it will be rejected outright by the International Community as aggression towards Somalia's Sovereignty, It would have no legal basis and therefore no company would want to invest in unsafe disputed waters.This incursion is more about Kenya's security/Economy and creating a buffer to stop all the refugees, the piracy, the kidnappings, etc.And helping install any mamul Gobleed will not help it gain anything in terms of changing the maritime borders, since that's a national issue and Kenya has to work diplomatically with the TFG to get thing done.

Murax,the Kenyans actually got what they wanted regarding the maritime borders,or willing to,cuz the somali road-map which actually has a clause that forces the TFG to draw Somalia's maritime borders within a short deadline,its probably up by now, thus Kenya has no incentive for military action regarding that issue.and it didn't go through any thinkers or policy makers cuz even the Kenyan parliament's approval wasn't seeked,and they thus feel left out.It was a quick decision taken by Kibaki and the defense minster in the shadows.so like I said,Azania remains the only beneficiary that I can think of.we shall see though

Hanqadh/Samadoon,

It can be disputed what Kenya's exact motive is, but one thing that is for sure is that
A) it is purely economical
B) It really has nothing to do with Shishkabab
C) It is not about installing any administration


Keep in mind Kenya's the most corrupt Nation in the world, and Yea You're damn right they wouldn't have any qualms about doing business in Somali waters while it is 'disputed'. Right now You have Kenya's presence in Somalia not being questioned, condemned, and even acknolwedged by the entire International Community, Puppet TFG, etc. what makes You think that them tommorow doing business in Somali waters will draw away investors, when even world bodies do not today acknowledge Somalia's territorial integrety? Like I said before Shishkaob, and installing a maamul goboleed are nothing but a guise for bigger objectives.


A) If they were serious about installing a regional Government they would train, and empower Somali troops to do so themselves. There is no point capturing territory for people when they will give it right back.

B) They realy don't care all that too much about shishkabab as if they would make permenant long term bases. Defeating them takes a long term commitment.

Hanqadh/Samadoon,

It can be disputed what Kenya's exact motive is, but one thing that is for sure is that
A) it is purely economical
B) It really has nothing to do with Shishkabab
C) It is not about installing any administration


Keep in mind Kenya's the most corrupt Nation in the world, and Yea You're damn right they wouldn't have any qualms about doing business in Somali waters while it is 'disputed'. Right now You have Kenya's presence in Somalia not being questioned, condemned, and even acknolwedged by the entire International Community, Puppet TFG, etc. what makes You think that them tommorow doing business in Somali waters will draw away investors, when even world bodies do not today acknowledge Somalia's territorial integrety? Like I said before Shishkaob, and installing a maamul goboleed are nothing but a guise for bigger objectives.


A) If they were serious about installing a regional Government they would train, and empower Somali troops to do so themselves. There is no point capturing territory for people when they will give it right back.

B) They realy don't care all that too much about shishkabab as if they would make permenant long term bases. Defeating them takes a long term commitment.

well said murax..

Hanqadh/Samadoon,

It can be disputed what Kenya's exact motive is, but one thing that is for sure is that
A) it is purely economical
B) It really has nothing to do with Shishkabab
C) It is not about installing any administration


Keep in mind Kenya's the most corrupt Nation in the world, and Yea You're damn right they wouldn't have any qualms about doing business in Somali waters while it is 'disputed'. Right now You have Kenya's presence in Somalia not being questioned, condemned, and even acknolwedged by the entire International Community, Puppet TFG, etc. what makes You think that them tommorow doing business in Somali waters will draw away investors, when even world bodies do not today acknowledge Somalia's territorial integrety? Like I said before Shishkaob, and installing a maamul goboleed are nothing but a guise for bigger objectives.


A) If they were serious about installing a regional Government they would train, and empower Somali troops to do so themselves. There is no point capturing territory for people when they will give it right back.

B) They realy don't care all that too much about shishkabab as if they would make permenant long term bases. Defeating them takes a long term commitment.

Great analysis Somalis are ridiculous This is what happens when you can't you have any thinking that steps out of limited implcations like having a clan enclave. LOL @ even thinking for three seconds that the Kenyans will really carve out a clan enclave for Somalis to rule autonomously and just quietly leave them be. If Azania ever gets setup (it wont) it will have ZERO autonomy over their decisions. It will literally be an extended Kenyan state. None of the factions that support it can hold on to any territory gained for more than three days once the Kenyans pull out.

I've heard rumors however that the Kenyans are clearing out the territory for AMISOM to occupy once they leave. If that is true, then perhaps this might not turn out exactly like the Ethiopian war. If the Kenyans leave and hand it over to Ras Kamboni/ASWJ , AS will rout them in months.