UN insiders say a new ball game is about to start in 2012. Sharif, the speaker is not out yet. He may fight back and win only to last few more months. The other Sharif, the president wants to prolong his term beyond August, which is an uphill battle. The UN is studying Afghaistan style government for Somalia and is going to bring more troops.
TFG era is about to end. Let's wait and see how the next chapter plays out. Ahlusuna Wajamaca's stake in the country is also on the table. It may be dismantled and replaced by regional governments like Hiranland, Cabudwaqland, etc.
Sakiin is planning to use Kampala Accord as his way to stay input, however 280 of the 300+ parliament are adamant to remove Sakiin. This means if opposing side are at its brick then it would look like the parliament will collapse, this will lead into a early election. This might cause TFG timeline to increase.
What is the good thing for the somali people?
for Sakiin to be sacked with ease, and military development go with ease. This means TFG timeline will come to an end by 2012 AUGUST.
UN and international community are whatever they can do try to increase the TFG timeline so that Somalia will never have independent government that has the luxury to have direct dialogue with other countries.