Somalia has a bigger chance to disintegrate than Ethiopia

[Khalid Ali]

If we compare Ethiopia and Somalia, it looks like that Ethiopia its institutionally more united even as people although different languages culture religions.
Ethiopia is kept together with force and has a strong army that can overpower the various Kilils if there were secession attempts it can crush any separatist movement and its federal states come under a strong federal government.If we move to Somalia or the former Somali republic federalism and autonomism is widely interpolated how the politicians want. Every one has his own methods of how he wants to see Somalia where his tribe can be the leader. Puntland and Jubbaland want weak federal government but strong autonomous states yet the country to remain united. And to join forces to take the lead of the country and use their tribal homelands as a base to assume the highest office and to enrich their tribal homelands. Somalias biggest problem will be no effective institutions military police to uphold the law and order. if Puntland tomorrow declares independence there is no one that can stop them. But if the oromo kilil declares a state in adama as a desperate state free of Ethiopia. The TPLF forces will mobilize their federal forces and send them to Adama and crush them. Another obstacle to Somalias unity is Kenya's involvement Kenya already sits on a huge Somali province and the Somali province and the Somali jubbaland region the people of those regions are tribally related. That doesn't mean that Somalia will disintegrate now or in the near future but it can happen. And it has a bigger chance to disintegrate than Ethiopia because Ethiopia although not culturally and ethnically not united. There is still a sense of nationalism with in them, Somalis have no sense of nationalism Somalis are tribal nationalists. The bigger picture is most of the time the same as the smaller picture they cant distinguish the 2. Those who oppose the lose autonomous states are opposed to it for tribal reason and those who are for it are doing it for tribal reasons

[BigBreak]

i agree with if we are talking about original somalia the former italian colony but somaliland aka the british ex protectorate will become the most vital nation in east africa for two reasons

1. stability/homogenity - our state apparatus will not collapse bcos we are 100% ethnic somali and more than 70% is only one clan, isaaq whereas less than 70% in (italian) somalia is ethnic somali, rest being bantus, banadiris, baravese etc
2. democracy - we are the only real democracy in east africa over a consistent basis and this will be important for the west who knows dictatorships are no longer viable to be friends with

viva rep. of somaliland

[SecretAgent]

ethiopa will not disintegrate nxt 2015 elections a none muslim oromo will come to power , the West cant afford to have a nation of 90 million ppl turn into mini states , oromos r pro ethiopa ppl, and its their turn to lead.

[BigBreak]

^ dude ethiopia is a one party state kkkkkk

[Khalid Ali]

Former Somali republic tribal map




Possible states disintegration former Somali republic

[SecretAgent]

^ dude ethiopia is a one party state kkkkkk

no ur wrong CIA controls da top leaders of TPLF n der time is over , thy stole over $30 billion dollars since 1991 over 85,000 ethiopan refugees every month r fleeing to middle east , north africa , da West told da TPLF party ur time is over 2015 elections

[Khalid Ali]

ethiopa will not disintegrate nxt 2015 elections a none muslim oromo will come to power , the West cant afford to have a nation of 90 million ppl turn into mini states , oromos r pro ethiopa ppl, and its their turn to lead.

Oromos will not lead Ethiopia , unless they are from shewa or wollo tulama these oromos , are in all sense and mindset Amharas
Ethiopia can disintegrate, but as long as the TPLF rules it , it will stay united. But most likely after the TPLF is finished Amharas will take the lead and one region will break away most likely Tigray region. Ethiopia can fall apart. But right now its strong and its united and they have ethnic federalism in place and US defense budget to bless the Ethiopian union.

[Kafkaesque]

This is a stupid secessionist thread. Somalia is already disintegrated, but people are working hard to unite it under the only possible system of governance called federalism.

The secessionists are 100% against peace in Somalia under federalism as they do not want Somalia to be peaceful, this hurts their agenda, and their #1 cause for secession. They want Somalia to be a central state, which they themselves do not want to be apart off, but want others to suffer under this system, that is the evilness of the secessionist.

There are just different views as to which kind of federalism should be implemented. No one wants a weak federal Somalia, that is just nonsense against spouted by secessionists, people want the right amount of federal involvement in federal member states. There are 2 different views spearheaded by Hasan Sheikh vs Puntland.

Hasan Sheikh wants 3 federal states; Somaliland (secessionists), Puntland and Southern Somalia.
Puntland wants local populations to decide their own future which means; Somaliland (secessionists), Puntland, Gobolada Dhexe, Shabaykool and Jubbaland.

This causes obvious frictions and political differences.

[Khalid Ali]

First of all Somaliland is not part of this federal nonsense you are spewing ,its not part of Somalia.

What we are really discussing is you are right Somalia is disintegrated, it will never be really able to unite as one people and one nation. Federalism cannot work because the irir clans in Jubbaland wish not to be part of autonomous state headed by Daaroods . But it can find legitimacy if Kenya influence it and considers its little baby. That means the government in Mogadishu will be in dilemma. Currently there is one autonomous state that exists its Puntland it works with the Somali federal government and there is an autonomous Jubbaland in the making. Not recognized by the federal government. It all depends who wins this war either those who want lose autonomous states or those who want a strong federal republic. If both dont happen than it will balkanize officially. So who loses the most if Somalia is balkanized?

[BigBreak]

somalia means italian somalia end of? 1960 was a marriage not a merger alright

[ASMtimacade]

Nope Ethiopia is bankrolled and funded by U.s tax payers, its got millions starving like Somalia.
All that aid is holding that country together. simple.

Somalia has already disintegrated...due to Hawiye sliver backs.

[Kafkaesque]

Somaliland is recognized by the world as being an unrecognized sovereign state that is an autonomous region of Somalia, so naturally the federal system has come to affect its intentions, which was the work of great minds back in the 1990s. But you are right that it is not part of the politicking going on in the south, but sadly it has hurt its own aims by negotiating with kacaanists such as Hasan Sheikh, something they are admitting today by being absent from the 3rd conference for Somalia.

You are right, we are seeing here is the fight for Somalia, but it is not loose federal system, it is federalism vs federalism with limited states, more states doesn't necessarily make it loose, loose depends on the influence of the federal government. None of them want a weak federal state, there is just not trust at the moment. Hasan Sheikh has destroyed whether intentional or unintentional the trust build by the two forces of Sheikh Shariif and Abdiweli, which handed over a very united Somalia to him by opposing Jubbaland. This has naturally led to clan tensions not seen for some time. The opposition of Jubbaland is clan based as is the support.

The federal government has lost on Jubbaland, it has played many cards but hasn't seen any results. Through IGAD, it has made sure that Kenya doesn't provide any support to the conference. It has not financed it, nor has it provided any political support yet Mogadishu has not been able to stop it. It can only delegitimize which is why they sent Barre Hiiraale, who himself has no power other than his household guards. So it is clear the victory belongs to people who want more federal states in the south, the anti-Mogadishu camp. But there will be no balkanization, if more federal states are made, it will be easier to maneuver the politicking in Mogadishu, people do not realise that.

Chaos is a ladder.

[Young Royal]

Basically the one clan triangle enclave should be granted their independence from Muqdisho and as far as the rest are concerned Muqdisho should have impunity over them. When Somaliland independence is not up for debate then there is everything wrong with disintegration.

I'm reminded of that old proverb that profectly brings to light how out of touch this people are. Indeed "blank marduuf qat aah helay waa majnuun falan."

[original dervish]

The Somali federal Govt will soon be taking over control the Somali airspace.
This is the first of a long line of realities that will soon hit s/land.

The next step will be control of Somalia's exclusive economic maritime zone.
When that happens and oil concessions start getting awarded, the house of cards that is s/l will come tumbling down.

This week will see Hassan Sheikh and Madobe being summoned to Addis Ababa.
Afterward Hassan Sheikh will recognise J/Land with some conditions.
This is how the dirty game of Somali politics is played.

[SecretAgent]

Basically the one clan triangle enclave should be granted their independence from Muqdisho and as far as the rest are concerned Muqdisho should have impunity over them. When Somaliland independence is not up for debate then there is everything wrong with disintegration.

I'm reminded of that old proverb that profectly brings to light how out of touch this people are. Indeed "blank marduuf qat aah helay waa majnuun falan."

How is it a triangle can u prove it issaqs live in Sool and sanag both regions is home to Hj , HY , and hawiyes where is da triangle