sheekh ahmed madoobe : I'm going to xamar

[Murax]

To be honest I doubt Madoobe will be going to Xamar. What can Xassan Sh do to Him if He doesn't?

He said he is going, full stop. read my last post to understand why.

Time will tell. But You've been saying for almost a year, the same thing about how the Dawlad will control Kismayo soon. When will You reconsider?

[sahal80]

To be honest I doubt Madoobe will be going to Xamar. What can Xassan Sh do to Him if He doesn't?

He said he is going, full stop. read my last post to understand why.

Time will tell. But You've been saying for almost a year, the same thing about how the Dawlad will control Kismayo soon. When will You reconsider?

The govt is going to install sheekh ahmed and his administration in kismaayo and some kutiri kuteen are saying they are asking the others to move out of the town. This is the political solution for kismayo.
At the moment they are acting in a stupid way like this fiqi they are talking to him secretly and not collaborating with him publically because they don't want to recognize him before he gets appointed.

Once the new administaration was formed the govt is in control. but don't listen all these daily qeelo they just want to score some points.

[Murax]

Sahal that is not making any sense. Opposing Him this fiercely only to appoint Him? Maybe that is the case and that is a victory for Madoobe not a victory for Xassan Sh. Xassan Sh is not appointing Him because He wants to but because He's forced.

[original dervish]

Anybody who thinks Hassan Sheik will have any influence in Kismayo is living cloud cuckoo land.
Arming militias....instigating conflict...this USC faction has already exposed their intentions.

[sahal80]

Sahal that is not making any sense. Opposing Him this fiercely only to appoint Him? Maybe that is the case and that is a victory for Madoobe not a victory for Xassan Sh. Xassan Sh is not appointing Him because He wants to but because He's forced.

Firstly, I talk about the govts policies so hope you don't take it personally it doesn't mean I agree with the govt but just exposing how they think and act and their secret political position.

I think its meel dhexe because the system has changed and he stays.

[RovingMadness]

To be honest I doubt Madoobe will be going to Xamar. What can Xassan Sh do to Him if He doesn't?

Has the Marehan stance on Ahmed Madobe changed? What's the political viewpoint of the Marehan in Kismayo? Are they pro-Gedo Administration or they still on the sidelines?

[Murax]

To be honest I doubt Madoobe will be going to Xamar. What can Xassan Sh do to Him if He doesn't?

Has the Marehan stance on Ahmed Madobe changed? What's the political viewpoint of the Marehan in Kismayo? Are they pro-Gedo Administration or they still on the sidelines?

Absolutely not. However, He's merely just a tool. The real story here is that Xassan Sh and this Gov look absolutely helpless against Kenya the Kenyan, the enablers of Madoobe. As for which side, most Reer Gedo support its up in the air. Some support the Gov, some the Kismayo admin but most are somewhat in the middle possibly due to the ambiguity of the Gov official plans for Kismayo/Jubbaland. It seems some Reer Gedo are confused in terms of if it is equitable to support the Gov plan when they do not know what is in it for them or even if it is less or more than what they currently have in this admin.

[sahal80]

The real story kulahaa!

If you want to know the real reasons why the government is going to appoint a governor from raas kambooni these are the reasons, both somali and foreing factors

1-They liberated kismayo from al shabaab with their kenyan allies.
2-They are maamulka kumeelgaarka(before the conference) and control the city, its airport and port.
3-Clan-wise they represent politically the clan more than you as there are smaller groups originally from puntland and even in the conference they all together were the double of your delegation wich was some thing between 70 and 80, thus, they have no problem with these northen regions, they won't be againist ahmed madoobe.
Lastly,with many respect, they can't appoint a governor from gedo because this group is a divided one first and can't secure more groups they also represent the clan in the govt.

[original dervish]

I don't think you understand......J/Land will not settle for anything less than full regional autonomy.
Hassan Sheikh has tried everything.....even war....and failed miserably.

[sahal80]

Lol horta adiga yaa kubaryaayo? Xalkaan kor aa laga keeney, the file is closed.
Like I said a political solution has been reached, not face to face between raas kambooni and the govt except the short meeting between hassan sheekh and sheekh ahmed, the sheekh is heading xamar for face to face talks and then will attend the conference in another visit.
This is julius karangi the KDF commander in jubooyinka, from yesterday.

Kenya: The military has downplayed claims that the ongoing factional fighting in Kismayu may affect peace and stability in the country and the region at large.

Chief of Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) General Julius Karangi said the fighting in Kismayu over power is normal and that the crisis will soon be solved. He said the Kenyan troops under Amison are still in control of much of the affected areas and sought to assure Kenyans of their security.

He added that a group of leaders from Somalia central government and Jubaland are having talks to solve their differences

I'm out now, I will cover the vist inshallah.

[EEGA9]

Sahal you know that all of Jubboyinka elders are present in Kismaayo and support Madoobe so it depends if Xamar holds a conference and the usual nac-nac of Maxamed amiin and Iftiin Baasto is put forth then Madoobe nor the elders will attend unless this is genuine talks and its between maamulka and the central government but if you add the spoilers and those who took part in the recent kismayo conflict then a boycott is for sure.

Lama kala foga runti there is much opportunity for Somalia, I can see the interest of the international community.We must not spoil this opportunity through infighting.

[sahal80]

Sahal you know that all of Jubboyinka elders are present in Kismaayo and support Madoobe so it depends if Xamar holds a conference and the usual nac-nac of Maxamed amiin and Iftiin Baasto is put forth then Madoobe nor the elders will attend unless this is genuine talks and its between maamulka and the central government but if you add the spoilers and those who took part in the recent kismayo conflict then a boycott is for sure.

Lama kala foga runti there is much opportunity for Somalia, I can see the interest of the international community.We must not spoil this opportunity through infighting.

I agree with some of your points and the spoilers are in every side. The xamar conference is backed by the IC, infact it was their initiative. Ahmed madoobe has met both hassan sheekh and nicholas kay and the things have been sorted out also with kenya.

[RovingMadness]

To be honest I doubt Madoobe will be going to Xamar. What can Xassan Sh do to Him if He doesn't?

Has the Marehan stance on Ahmed Madobe changed? What's the political viewpoint of the Marehan in Kismayo? Are they pro-Gedo Administration or they still on the sidelines?

Absolutely not. However, He's merely just a tool. The real story here is that Xassan Sh and this Gov look absolutely helpless against Kenya the Kenyan, the enablers of Madoobe. As for which side, most Reer Gedo support its up in the air. Some support the Gov, some the Kismayo admin but most are somewhat in the middle possibly due to the ambiguity of the Gov official plans for Kismayo/Jubbaland. It seems some Reer Gedo are confused in terms of if it is equitable to support the Gov plan when they do not know what is in it for them or even if it is less or more than what they currently have in this admin.

Within the parameters of Kismayo, the Kablalax narrative seems to have prevailed among the Daarood & it seems the Marehan are overwhelmed by the changing dynamics in Jubbada Hoose. In fact, Puntland was able to manufacture certain Marehan individuals & it succeeded in selling them. Aw-Libaax certainly owes his political fortunes to Farole & I am not too sure about this Fartaag guy that Ras Kamboni has positioned as their VP. Even the experienced & battle-hardened Hiraale seems to be out of his elements, even though Ras Kamboni is doing everything in the book not to annoy him.

But you are right, the ones in Gedo seem to be a cohesive unit & the Prime Minister's endorsement of Kaliil solidified them further.

Coming to the Center, so far the government has taken gradual steps that are aimed at first isolating & ultimately disbanding the Jubbaland conspiracy. At the May 25th IGAD Summit, Kenya was specifically arm-twisted by the West to abandon its satellite project in the Jubba regions. This explains their missteps in Kismayo. They have relied too much on Ras Kamboni & have failed in making contingent plans in case the project falls apart. And it's falling apart, lets not make any doubt about it. The IGAD communique that the Jubbaland conspiracy was illegitimate, exclusive & unconstitutional set the stage for its end. The diplomatic consensus is in line with that. Yesterday's Security Council statement that supported the coming Mogadishu Conference while promising punitive steps against those that undermine it are not wild threats. In Sept, the Brussels Summit will take place delivering crucial lifeline to Somalia. Before then, the conspiracy in Kismayo will end & interim administrations will be setup in Lower Jubba & also Middle Jubba region. The decks are fundamentally lined up against Ras Kamboni & the many investments put into its disruption will bear fantastic fruits.

Mark this spot

[SultanOrder]

Sahal that is not making any sense. Opposing Him this fiercely only to appoint Him? Maybe that is the case and that is a victory for Madoobe not a victory for Xassan Sh. Xassan Sh is not appointing Him because He wants to but because He's forced.

God help you if you can ever make sense of Sahal. The guy hears one thing and runs with it only for it to not bear any fruit whatsoever.

[sahal80]

Absolutely not. However, He's merely just a tool. The real story here is that Xassan Sh and this Gov look absolutely helpless against Kenya the Kenyan, the enablers of Madoobe. As for which side, most Reer Gedo support its up in the air. Some support the Gov, some the Kismayo admin but most are somewhat in the middle possibly due to the ambiguity of the Gov official plans for Kismayo/Jubbaland. It seems some Reer Gedo are confused in terms of if it is equitable to support the Gov plan when they do not know what is in it for them or even if it is less or more than what they currently have in this admin.

Within the parameters of Kismayo, the Kablalax narrative seems to have prevailed among the Daarood & it seems the Marehan are overwhelmed by the changing dynamics in Jubbada Hoose. In fact, Puntland was able to manufacture certain Marehan individuals & it succeeded in selling them. Aw-Libaax certainly owes his political fortunes to Farole & I am not too sure about this Fartaag guy that Ras Kamboni has positioned as their VP. Even the experienced & battle-hardened Hiraale seems to be out of his elements, even though Ras Kamboni is doing everything in the book not to annoy him.

But you are right, the ones in Gedo seem to be a cohesive unit & the Prime Minister's endorsement of Kaliil solidified them further.

Coming to the Center, so far the government has taken gradual steps that are aimed at first isolating & ultimately disbanding the Jubbaland conspiracy. At the May 25th IGAD Summit, Kenya was specifically arm-twisted by the West to abandon its satellite project in the Jubba regions. This explains their missteps in Kismayo. They have relied too much on Ras Kamboni & have failed in making contingent plans in case the project falls apart. And it's falling apart, lets not make any doubt about it. The IGAD communique that the Jubbaland conspiracy was illegitimate, exclusive & unconstitutional set the stage for its end. The diplomatic consensus is in line with that. Yesterday's Security Council statement that supported the coming Mogadishu Conference while promising punitive steps against those that undermine it are not wild threats. In Sept, the Brussels Summit will take place delivering crucial lifeline to Somalia. Before then, the conspiracy in Kismayo will end & interim administrations will be setup in Lower Jubba & also Middle Jubba region. The decks are fundamentally lined up against Ras Kamboni & the many investments put into its disruption will bear fantastic fruits.

Mark this spot

I have said to murax this long time. faroole has added aw libaax in the road map when mahiga suggested the central ahlussuna and galmudug to be part of it. Aw libaax is a southren ahlussuna and faroole was trying to make his number bigger bc of the constitution issue. Since then, there is a majertenism in part of marehan as aw libax sees his political future within this camp.