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In regards to the J/LAND issue, Somalia Gov't has already won.
The Jubbaland issue can take up to 5-10 years to solve or come into actual existence. Right now, it's just a rag tag militia cruising around Kismayo.
First, Al Shabab must be defeated from 50-75% of Jubbaland. Al Shabab controls all of Middle Jubba, including it's regional capital (along with large chunks of Lower Jubba and Gedo). Right now, Ras Kambooni can't defeat Shabab on it's own. They need the Kenyans and even the Kenyans are having a hard time capturing areas outside of Afmadow and Kismayo. Can Jubbaland forces secure the area? Or will they lose it the next day to Al Shabab after Kenya leaves? Jubbaland Forces need to be built and this will take years.
Secondly, there must be an agreement to merge the three gobols together into one federal state. This isn't the obstacle but the obstacle will be the power-sharing. Who get's what and how much? Jubbaland is a very diverse region. This isn't Puntland that has one sub clan that will rule that state for eternity and no one can object. This is Jubbaland. A very different situation. This will take a while.
I predict the Government of Somalia will be the winner and take advantage of Jubbaland's internal clan problems and instability. They will come to the rescue before a clan war breaks out. But don't expect a final solution now. Maybe 2015. Also don't believe this Jubbaland unity. Beneath the surface are sub clans who are vying for Jubbaland's presidency and those who seek the top seat come as far as Bosaso. I think a Puntlander will become the actual Jubbaland President.
There is somali maah maah " doqonti 100 ilood bay leedahay , 99 waxay ku fiiriisaa walaalkeed, cadowgana isha hartay"we have an iidoor and a hutu discussing jubbaland politics?
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i blame MJ's for turning a inter darood power sharing struggle into a irir vs darood myth.

well saidIts obvious in 1991 we had a winner the USC and SNM . , but the rebels failed to create proper governance in the whole Somali republic. And there was no clear winner. We need to have a winner so that there can be a goverment in Somalia it seems road map clan federalism created only more animosities every one has his own version of federalism. The constitution is used as an excuse no one even studied the whole constitution the parliament never studied it. And we are hearing the government changed parts of the constitution. Governance can be agreed on but its seems Somalis cannot agree, the Sahal members consider the govt in Mogadishu a HAG damuljadid led govt. The Govt in Mogadishu wants to rule using her own methods and it believes its the sole representative of the Somali people. But in reality the rest view it as a HAG damuljadid govt. When Will Somalis be really honest and say we screwed up our issue is not federalism its tribal animosities and since there is no clear winner of the civil war.Lets give it one more round the HAG led govt needs train an army a strong army consisting of an army and Militia and declare an all out war against The Kenyans and Jubbaland, Its not ready now still but in a years time when they have enough troops. And when they have enough Military equipment. And lets have a winner i am sure if Cayr could defeat Ethiopians , i bet you the Kenyans are much weaker than the Ethiopians i believe a united HAG can take down the silly girly Kikuyu troops. Somaliland should declare an all out war against Pirate land and secure the last 15% of its Boundaries and shell parts Pirateland and occupy Parts of Majeerteenia. And lets have a winner this time. Let it not be like 1991 when we had no winner.

woow your analysis on the juballand issue is spot on, more so on the part that a puntlander will most likely be the president of juballand (reerka darood puntland ayaa madax uu eh)In regards to the J/LAND issue, Somalia Gov't has already won.
The Jubbaland issue can take up to 5-10 years to solve or come into actual existence. Right now, it's just a rag tag militia cruising around Kismayo.
First, Al Shabab must be defeated from 50-75% of Jubbaland. Al Shabab controls all of Middle Jubba, including it's regional capital (along with large chunks of Lower Jubba and Gedo). Right now, Ras Kambooni can't defeat Shabab on it's own. They need the Kenyans and even the Kenyans are having a hard time capturing areas outside of Afmadow and Kismayo. Can Jubbaland forces secure the area? Or will they lose it the next day to Al Shabab after Kenya leaves? Jubbaland Forces need to be built and this will take years.
Secondly, there must be an agreement to merge the three gobols together into one federal state. This isn't the obstacle but the obstacle will be the power-sharing. Who get's what and how much? Jubbaland is a very diverse region. This isn't Puntland that has one sub clan that will rule that state for eternity and no one can object. This is Jubbaland. A very different situation. This will take a while.
I predict the Government of Somalia will be the winner and take advantage of Jubbaland's internal clan problems and instability. They will come to the rescue before a clan war breaks out. But don't expect a final solution now. Maybe 2015. Also don't believe this Jubbaland unity. Beneath the surface are sub clans who are vying for Jubbaland's presidency and those who seek the top seat come as far as Bosaso. I think a Puntlander will become the actual Jubbaland President.



do you really think a fifty year old iidoor chilling in hargeisa having cross-roads decision on wether to buy that last mijin or buy milk for the familyi wonder wat makes hutu nd idoor so interested in jubbaland? its like they are paranoid

loldo you really think a fifty year old iidoor chilling in hargeisa having cross-roads decision on wether to buy that last mijin or buy milk for the familyi wonder wat makes hutu nd idoor so interested in jubbaland? its like they are paranoid
has the virtue of time to lose sleep over juballand. cmon grandpa your better than this

waa xasiid hutus and tutsi's i mean dooro's inee juufta iska digan ayoo rabaaOne more round kulaha, lay of the mirqaan ya Qaldaan alle ceebtada ma asturee.
If you ever follow his threads isku dir ma ahe wax kale ma u ka danbeeyo.waa xasiid hutus and tutsi's i mean dooro's inee juufta iska digan ayoo rabaaOne more round kulaha, lay of the mirqaan ya Qaldaan alle ceebtada ma asturee.

waxaas aa xasidnimo.... This stupid emperior think Sland will get recognition if hawiye iyo darood go to war.waa xasiid hutus and tutsi's i mean dooro's inee juufta iska digan ayoo rabaaOne more round kulaha, lay of the mirqaan ya Qaldaan alle ceebtada ma asturee.

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