"They recognize that they have to deal with Madobe," said one senior Western diplomat.
The situation has been complicated because of ambiguity over how Somalia, including its breakaway regions, will be governed as a federation and because Mogadishu has little leverage as its poorly paid and trained security forces cannot impose control.
"Acknowledging that Madobe is the de facto leader in charge of an interim Jubaland administration would be pragmatic," said Matt Bryden, a director of Sahan Research think-tank who previously coordinated a U.N. monitoring report on Somalia.
"The government can't afford to become embroiled in this," he said. "It doesn't have the time, the resources or sufficient influence in Jubaland."
Madobe was a governor of Kismayu during an administration that was routed by Ethiopian forces sent into Somalia between 2006 and 2009 with tacit U.S. backing.
Absame The Blessed teaching the Hutus a thing or two about politics
