Individual
I will advise you to ignore this juba thing, its totally mawdu3 motasha3ib wa motashabik and is not like what one can imagin. I will be in a shock if that region gets stabilazed sooner for a local reasons and the agreement states to establish an excutive council(cabinet) and a regional assembly(parliament) from all the clans besides the re-integration of the militias or if this agreement even gets implimented by the govt and juba administration.
Juba wanted to get recognition and they got it, except changing its name and making it an interim administration the govt has no papers(points) with immediate effect and there is a future time-line to be implimented in its other points like the security forces they have to establish first a joint commitee that will agree on modalities and timetable for the integration of all security forces or the ports to be transferred to the govts control after 6 months... This needs a honest commitment otherwise the agreement will collapse...the govt depends only on a political change in kismayo and the presidents pics being sticked in there in exchange of this recognition but in reality the shaykh has the same power he had before as there is no immediate effect on the govts role so you can expect from him anything. In this way, some think that the govt has signed for and recognized unintentionally the kenyan backed group because there is no "damanaat" except gedo wich will still have a pro-govt officials.
However, this was a compromise and I read for madobe saying after he signed the agreement that if he wasn't going to impliment it he wouldn't have signed it.
I believe the govt wanted to have this achievement in its first year and that they were in a rush in order to avoid getting accused of making no major progress in this year besides the new deal conference that will take place in the next two weeks.
But don't worry, many strategical factors will be changing in the first half of the next year, Till then, let us take a break from this subject al motasha3ib wal motashabik al atraaf.
