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US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisation

Daily chitchat on Somali politics.

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sahal80
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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby sahal80 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:31 pm

Sahal, I guess the constitution will first need to be completed and rectified in a popular referendum before elections. Given the amount of work you need to do, It looks almost impossible for you guys to hold election in 2016, may be you can do it by 2017 or 2018.

Do you have any idea what type of democracy you are going to have? will it be a direct presidential elections like Somaliland and the USA, or is the president going to come from the party with the majority in the parliament like the Somali republic used to be?
No. It goes well, three years still ahead before the election.

It will be through the political parties(they must register on its time) and the independent candidates, not allowed a clan-based party or carries some regions name.

Islamist parties will win it and there is now on on going meetings between the dam jadid and al islaah for reunification.

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby Gabre » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:33 pm

.

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby SomaliDefenceCouncil » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:44 pm

Somaliland has no resources that is why nobody wants anything to do with the triangle state. All of Somalia's resources is in south central Somalia.

Hence I am not surprised by this, If the US has Mogadishu then it already has all of Somalia. Britain has already secured its interest in Somalia by establishing itself in Mogadishu, the Untied States now follows.
Last edited by SomaliDefenceCouncil on Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby samatar133 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:44 pm

Sahal, I guess the constitution will first need to be completed and rectified in a popular referendum before elections. Given the amount of work you need to do, It looks almost impossible for you guys to hold election in 2016, may be you can do it by 2017 or 2018.

Do you have any idea what type of democracy you are going to have? will it be a direct presidential elections like Somaliland and the USA, or is the president going to come from the party with the majority in the parliament like the Somali republic used to be?
No. It goes well, three years still ahead before the election.

It will be through the political parties(they must register on its time) and the independent candidates, not allowed a clan-based party or carries some regions name.

Islamist parties will win it and there is now on on going meetings between the dam jadid and al islaah for reunification.
Why do you think Islamists will win? I though the Southern people had enough of Islamists after Alshabaab!

Obviously it will be through political parties. will it be presidential democracy or parliamentary one though?

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby SomaliDefenceCouncil » Thu Oct 10, 2013 7:48 pm

This picture alone explains why every power wants to secure their interest through Mogadishu alone.


Image

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby sahal80 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:20 pm

Sahal, I guess the constitution will first need to be completed and rectified in a popular referendum before elections. Given the amount of work you need to do, It looks almost impossible for you guys to hold election in 2016, may be you can do it by 2017 or 2018.

Do you have any idea what type of democracy you are going to have? will it be a direct presidential elections like Somaliland and the USA, or is the president going to come from the party with the majority in the parliament like the Somali republic used to be?
No. It goes well, three years still ahead before the election.

It will be through the political parties(they must register on its time) and the independent candidates, not allowed a clan-based party or carries some regions name.

Islamist parties will win it and there is now on on going meetings between the dam jadid and al islaah for reunification.
Why do you think Islamists will win? I though the Southern people had enough of Islamists after Alshabaab!

Obviously it will be through political parties. will it be presidential democracy or parliamentary one though?
A free public presidential elections. The formation of the consititional institutions will not take more than a year, the consitution will be ready by december 2015 and the elections are in oct 2016

The westren-backed political islam not the kinda of al shabaab

it will be between damjadid, al islah and al shaykh...dam jadid wants to re-elect hassan sheekh and calls al islah so, ala shaykh have some candidates for 2016 like professor afyare cilmi from qatar, he is the man who is behind the establishment of the mogadisho-based tink tank heritage, it was his advice or some other candidates backed by HIPS. I will try to find some link about the al islahs who support the president, other wing of al islah has some guys who are related to the president.

this the whole national agendas for 2016
http://m.facebook.com/l.php?u=http%3A%2 ... HjN3Sd&s=1

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby sahal80 » Thu Oct 10, 2013 8:30 pm

This picture alone explains why every power wants to secure their interest through Mogadishu alone.


Image
:up:
Dubai-based iranian company to work soon on the expansion of this port, this will enlarge the revenue.

Mogadishu port has now 4000 workers! too busy :gladbron:

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby SultanOrder » Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:56 pm

Anyone who thinks that Alshabab won't be a threat let alone Elections feesible in 2016 is day dreaming :lol:

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby oxymoron » Fri Oct 11, 2013 1:28 am

Building political cooperation among Somali regions and clans in support of the Federal framework is essential.
:clap: :clap: :clap: :mrgreen:

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby zidane88 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:10 am

Elections will be held when the fat lady sings. :lol:

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby AhlulbaytSoldier » Fri Oct 11, 2013 6:48 am

This is a slap on the face of ninka caloosha buuran aka pregnant woman ceeb yaanyo.
What a sore loser.
Somalidiid silic u dhimo fi naari jahanam wa qatiballahu canhum wal canahum wa'a cada lahum cadaaban shadiidan insha'allah

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby sahal80 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 8:43 am

Anyone who thinks that Alshabab won't be a threat let alone Elections feesible in 2016 is day dreaming :lol:
two years ago al shabaab was controlling the capital what do you think of these next three years besides unlike before they have no that military strength, infact they are divided and don't help eachother, abu mansure has nearly 1500 forces, hizpul islam is gone...generally al shabaab number of forces has been reduced into 5000, they had before over 15,000 forces.

Al shabaab are just a result of the somali failure, the warlordism, the corruption...this is why they don't exist in somaliland or puntland where inistitutional systems exist

The UN report has stated that al shabaab was seen by many as "an alternative to corrupt institutions"

First factor: remove the corruption(and the capital has changed since this govt was elected by removing the isbaaro and eventually shabelle and baay)

Get rid of the last warlords

Get good regular wages for the army

The second factor is their domestical revenue sources, since kismayo was captured they lost millions, now get baraawe, control the commerce and farms this is why al shabaab has banned yesterday to export charcoal through kismayo port

Third factor, target the somali radical al shabaab backers from minneapolis, east africa and the gulf states


Lastly: use al shabaab as tactics not as strategy

al shabaab itself is the best card of the govt, they are two edged weapon and do help at times. the somali president has warned from al shabaab attacks inside america so they will take it seriously...more funds for the security forces, air military assistance...america has questioned the kenyan role in there for fear of al shabaab may recruite others


If they fix all these factors al shabaab will be reduced into a small suicide bombers within two years.


Post-al shabaab era: one million students to get free education.

in august the somali govt has announced a big national educational project called aada dugsiyada/go to school
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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby sahal80 » Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:53 am

Somali president explains how to win the war against al-Shabab
Last updated: 3 hours ago
Al jazeera

"Information, education, development, and international support are essential in defeating an extremist enemy in retreat.
When I meet my fellow African leaders in Addis Ababa this weekend, we will be sending a powerful message to the world; we will be demonstrating continental unity against extremists. It will be the latest victory for Somalia in an information war against an enemy that is firmly on the back foot.

There is no such thing as a legitimate al-Shabab government.

Much of the commentary in the aftermath of the Westgate atrocity has suggested the attack emboldened al-Shabab. Allow me to argue that it demonstrated precisely the opposite. It is often said that the media has a short attention span, but one does not need a great memory to recall how, before 2011, al-Shabab controlled a great majority of Mogadishu, in addition to the strategic port cities of Merka and Kismayo, which served as their financial and logistical hub, and whole swathes of Somalia. Most of my country was then victim to their perverted form of "governance" - beatings, beheadings, amputations, extortion, and a complete betrayal of Islamic practice. There is no such thing as a legitimate al-Shabab government. Their rule was human rights abuse plain and simple.

Those who do not know Somalia may have been fooled into thinking, both by al-Shabab's bombastic propaganda, and the terrible events at Westgate, that the extremist group is more powerful than ever. Yet even a cursory glance across the country will tell you that we have driven them out of Mogadishu, expelled them from Kismayo and degraded their capabilities so extensively that they have only dwindling supplies of men, materiel and funding. They have been forced underground.

Are they down? Certainly. They are on their last knees. Have we eradicated them completely? Not yet. We now need the tools to finish the job and we must strike while the momentum is with us, as our American partners did at Barawe on October 4. As the UN's Special Representative of the Secretary General has argued powerfully in recent weeks, paying a small price now to increase the capacity of Somali and African Union forces will save us all paying a much higher price later. The fact, for example, that neither the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) nor the Somali National Army has a single helicopter in a country the size of Afghanistan is simply not good enough. We must continue to ruthlessly deny our enemies territory.

Military action is essential in this fight. But let no one think we believe for a minute there can be a military solution. We know we have to go right back to the start of the terrorist production line to halt the supply of innocent young men into the arms of unscrupulous militants for whom are used as nothing more than cannon fodder. We have not backed up our military success with sufficient progress in the information war. We must now do much better in the battle of ideas.

Considering we are facing an enemy whose ideology is considered completely redundant by 99 percent of the population, we begin with an important advantage. When I read one comment from the Shabaab leadership that the Westgate slaughter of innocent and unarmed men, women and children was one of the "epic battles" in the history of Islam, it reminded me how badly educated they are, how divorced from reality they have become and how utterly irrelevant they are to Somali aspirations for a better future. We must highlight these problems vigorously and remorselessly.

The struggle against extremism needs to take place on the broadest possible front, from the parched Somali desert to flourishing American cities, from mosques to internet chat forums. It must be prosecuted on digital and social media, on the airwaves and in the newspapers, in schools and universities. Just as poison requires an antidote, extremist ideology must meet with innovative strategies, cutting-edge technologies, comprehensive education and vigorous communications.

Education is key

The education of our people must be a national priority.

Now that the military campaign is almost over, education must become the new frontline. Two decades of fighting have denied a generation of Somalis from even the most basic education. The education of our people must be a national priority. We must fight al-Shabab in the classroom, defeating them with books as well as with bullets on the battlefield. The government's recently announced "back to school" campaign aims to get one million young girls and boys into the classroom, where they will enjoy the most fundamental human right and learn the skills needed to build productive careers and fulfilled lives. That will be another blow to the extremists' ability to recruit vulnerable youth.

Extremism is like a cancer that needs treatment. International cooperation is essential, especially considering we have Somalis living all over the world. As US Congressman Keith Ellison, whom I had the pleasure of welcoming to Mogadishu earlier this year, wrote recently, the best way to neutralise al-Shabab is to support Somalia. We need the US and UK governments, for example, to work directly with our government, take advantage of our pool of highly educated diaspora Somalis, and collaborate on deradicalisation and countering violent extremism programmes.

We must send Somalia's most distinguished religious leaders to educate young Somalis abroad, to ensure they are protected intellectually against any attempts of brainwashing. Last month, more than 160 distinguished clerics in Mogadishu issued a landmark fatwa against al-Shabab, forcefully declaring they had strayed from Islam. The scholars stated it was a religious obligation to turn the terrorists into the authorities and offering them sanctuary was prohibited. This was a body blow to our enemies - Islamic authorities publicly rejecting Shabab's perversion of our faith - and we must provide many more.

Economic recovery will be another nail in the coffin of extremism. Only a few days ago, many Somalis and Eritreans lost their lives after the boat they were travelling on to Europe sank off the Italian coast. The tragedy demonstrated the great scale of the development challenge that faces us as we seek to build a country from the ashes of devastating conflict. We are driving Somalia from emergency to recovery and from recovery to development and reconstruction. We are making progress every day - through improved security, judicial and public financial management reform. Tax collection will, in time, allow us to stand on our own feet and wean ourselves off international support.

How often we hear those two words regarding Somalia: international support. We are grateful to our partners for enabling it. We are also only too aware of the difficulty in maintaining it. Take the recent decision to close money transfer accounts, a move that affects remittances, which are worth double the amount of aid flows coming into Somalia. At a stroke a single decision undermined the international community's support for Somalia. We must do better than that.

Let me assure our partners, as I remind Somalis, that we are on the right path. Security is improving, new political institutions are taking root, a new constitution and democratic elections are on the horizon, and our enemies are on the decline. We must give them their just deserts - and make them totally irrelevant. The triumph of the many Somalis will be the defeat of the few. Our success will be their failure."

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby AbkoowDhiblaawe » Fri Oct 11, 2013 9:59 am

This is a slap on the face of ninka caloosha buuran aka pregnant woman ceeb yaanyo.
What a sore loser.
Somalidiid silic u dhimo fi naari jahanam wa qatiballahu canhum wal canahum wa'a cada lahum cadaaban shadiidan insha'allah
:mindblown: :snoop:

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Re: US abandones dual track approach, promites refederalisat

Postby LiquidHYDROGEN » Fri Oct 11, 2013 10:04 am

This is a slap on the face of ninka caloosha buuran aka pregnant woman ceeb yaanyo.
What a sore loser.
Somalidiid silic u dhimo fi naari jahanam wa qatiballahu canhum wal canahum wa'a cada lahum cadaaban shadiidan insha'allah
:mindblown: :snoop:
What a loser. He has so much hate for a people who don't know or care about him that he is cursing muslims. Subxanallah. :snoop:


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