I don't really enjoy going into Somali politics but I will raise one point:
The Somaliland govt will never let go of its claims of the eastern regions if Somaliland wants recognition internationally. Somaliland needs all of the British Somaliland territory, otherwise there is no case. This is why the Silanyo administration and past administrations have always kept the same stance. Also Mogadishu will ironically accept Somaliland in its entirety break off rather than the Isaaq and Gadabursi areas alone. Mogadishu and the international community will be less sympathetic to the latter option because it dismisses the British Somaliland argument. Silanyo knows that if he lets go of eastern area claims than his govt and country will be labelled as a clan project.
I am,
Abdi "Somaliland will never let go of its claims" Johnson
The world apart of Somalia’s adversaries such as Kenya and Ethiopia support Somaliland. The UN, AU, Arab League, EU, China and America are against it. It makes no sense for 3 national Somali states to exist Somalia, Somaliland and Djibouti. And what if Ogaden gets it independence, which are possibly 4 Somali states in the future. The world isn’t going to allow this to happen.
It clear that Western Puntland is Pro-Somalia wants to be part of the union; Somaliland has no legs to stand on. There is no case for secessionism but mindless tribal hatred.
The Arab league is against somaliland for obvious reasons they want to use Somalis against Ethiopians particularly Egypt and Sacuuudi Arabia. But you are making a grave mistake the United states is not against Somaliland nor is the European Union they have repeatedly they will welcome Somaliland independence if the African union gives its blessing , The US and the Europeans remain very indifferent , what the hell is western Puntland
According to you Ogaden has a case and Somaliland doesnt
Caruurtani waba ruwayaad
When it comes to recognition, we were hoping that the African Union would make a definitive statement on this, but unfortunately, the African Union has not made a definitive statement and that has delayed our taking of a position on this matter. One of the things we are considering now is to have some sort of diplomatic representation or office in Somaliland, but I am not sure whether we would be able to do it in the remaining six months of our administration.
Egypt power is diminishing in the region the only Arab league state this extremly opposed to Somaliland independence is Egypt, But the US is very neutral on Somalilandt the same with many Europeans.