what will likely happen till next year

[sahal80]

Not extraordinary things

Somali govt: forming the necessary base and core for central importance(better security-prez hassan has woke up finally from his coma and has taken the right stepts in the security sector with the new mixed security policy- the regional foundations, the world financial backing, the world embassies, the constitutional achievements and legal papers)

Jubba: I find shykh madobe as a genius person unless he's been hiden some big secret from us regarding where he gets from his strengh and promises, its not an easy option to confront a people who are using the state instrument such as the diplomatic world

During the negotiations and in his meetings in xamar he asked for to have a role in the govt "in order keep these warm achievements"!

Thus, the new pm is based on his measurements after other geoplitical factors

Therefore, I guess, things will happen in his favour.

Puntland: a massive change has happened in puntland, faroole was not just a big player in the southren politics such as his role in the TFG, his last days spoilers, regional maps but was close to achieve a northern alliance against the mogadishu based govt!

I heard abdiwali gaas has an ego personality and that he cares more on his image rather than the core things that faroole was fighting on and that dj understands this or takes advantage to the point of letting him to represent somalia in the african conferences

One of these things are investing in this wide-world perception of him being a reconciliatory politician and the leader of change in puntland where the ties with the central govt are back as an introduction of him becoming a presidential candidate in somalia "with this national isprit" so he doesn't wanna to act like "the much hated" in xamar, faroole!.

I guess the somali govts ties with puntland will grow stronger through ali haaj and aicha geele who are closely cooperating with the constitution minister.

[AbdiWahab252]

My predictions are AS will still be a major factor in Somalia. HSM will deposed over the 3state agreent. Kenya will plunge into a larger civil war in the countryside. Gaas will accomplish little as his management skills are not suited to rough politics of patronage. Madoobe will be regulated to neighborhoods in Kismayo. Barre will be back with a vengence and will team up with Gobaale and Co for a strategic push into Kismayo

[Murax]

. Barre will be back with a vengence and will team up with Gobaale and Co for a strategic push into Kismayo

lol, good luck of that happening

[sahal80]

HSM will deposed over the 3state agreent

I think he got more stronger! He has now both the international backing and controls the local situation

Like an ally regime, the US strongly backs him now, he deployed the local situation onto his interestes where the pm sits on a large fire from mogadishu to baydhabo and even beyond.

Gaas will accomplish little as his management skills are not suited to rough politics of patronage

Your right on this, Its the reason why the UN staff has left puntland as a result of of the old guards playing with the security to shake him abit after he replaced them with his financiers according to GOL sources. But as for his relations with govt it will go stronger.

Madoobe will be regulated to neighborhoods in Kismayo. Barre will be back with a vengence and will team up with Gobaale and Co for a strategic push into Kismayo

totally disagree, madobe has secured this well.
I can call the baydhabo agreement as jubba2 agreement. The new pm plays diplomatic role between madoobe and dj and when the time was up for the govt to take the ports madobe has told the diplomats in nairobi that it should be part of the whole implementation of the agreement not just the ports part. Among the things he mentioned them was the govt not seriously stopping the 6camp admin project so for this reason they done the things quickly. The pm has met madobe and the same diplomats in nairobi just a day ago before the baydhabo agreement was signed and he brought with him a secret document wich is why the president hassan has given it the go ahead.

I think the baydhabo pressure has helped the govt on one big thing regarding jubba wich is about how the structure of jubba admin will be formed, reer D&M will have big role in the structure and the govt being the one who will implement this through reconciliation.

The other thing assuring the central role in the region.

All the rest should follow the two sides agreement there's no another way except al shabaab.

[Murax]

Sahal,

Try to think with Me for just one second. How on earth can the PM be in more hotwater locally in Somalia than HSM? Puntland, Jubba, Reer Baydhabo, Dir, all cannot stand HSM, and are in support of A/Wali. Granted A/Wali Has gotten some enemies from the agreement but those same enemies hate HSM just as much if not more. So in essence, A/Wali Has way more local support (Outside Mogadishu ofcourse) while HSM Has zero support not even in Mogadishu, and defnitely none outside Mogadishu. Try to make some sense.

[sahal80]

Sahal,

Try to think with Me for just one second. How on earth can the PM be in more hotwater locally in Somalia than HSM? Puntland, Jubba, Reer Baydhabo, Dir, all cannot stand HSM, and are in support of A/Wali. Granted A/Wali Has gotten some enemies from the agreement but those same enemies hate HSM just as much if not more. So in essence, A/Wali Has way more local support (Outside Mogadishu ofcourse) while HSM Has zero support not even in Mogadishu, and defnitely none outside Mogadishu. Try to make some sense.

may be you got blinded by qaraabo emotions until waago koogo baryo in the reality some day!

firstly hassan sheekh constitutionally cannot be removed, all this motion stuff is just a pressure bc they are writing to him to do it by himself or asking the world but they were told NO, we have no time and funds for such change!.

thats 1 strong point that the pm lacks

As the pm was sending some messages to IGAD, recently, the IGAD has tried to support the pm but this plan was stopped by the US who said to them no we only back the legitimacy(sence hes been elected) and the presidents vision

Means the pm has no political papers and can't reach anything with IGAD

now the pm has even lost that chance i have explained it before i dont need to repeat it

the situation now is in favour of the president bc even if they are both hated now, still, its in the presidents favour bc the pm has lost that chance of keeping the pressure on him so he can do the things from a strong point

He could have asked to post-pone the agreement like the interior did

come on, not just xamar, people are burning his pics in baydhabo

billah alaik who are the pms bases now? if you think some regions your wrong, infact they want his relations to get worse

The pm is now under the mercy of dj, he even appears now with mungaab lol

Do you know why? bc mungaab is close to goodah and after the president couldn't sort out between them there landed mungaab inviting both of them lol

And you guys talking about pm vs prez lol

This shows how hassan sheekh conspired and still conspires against the pm by letting him seek a shelter in his camp!.