2017, when ethiopia will be weakened by egypt

[sahal80]

F16 and rafale, injireey is playing with fire!

[Based]

idgaf about Egypt, but Ethiopia's dam projects are a danger to both of us

Imagine Ethiopian dams that could quite literally cut off the vital waters of the Jubba and Shabelle at any time, leaving millions of Somalis and by extension any future government at the mercy of these parasites wal iyadu billah.

[Smile-LiKe-SuN-RiSE]

Eventhough i am Habr magaadle and the Habasha mother is my step mother genealogy wise But i stand with the Ethiopians on this matter
Ethiopia has the right to use the Blue nile

Man!..i love this song...it gets my ethiopian friend dance like she is possessed tho lol

[gurey25]

Eritrea has fixed some of the main issues that led to the previous defeat.
They needed a mobile reserve to plug up holes made by surprise attacks.
They have done this and also the obligatory artillary support for this role.
Ethiopia cannot pull that trick again.
and that mobile reserve is not only good for defense it is excellent for counter attacks.
With proper anti-air cover i expect an eritrean victory in the next war, without any foriegn forces involved.

now for Ethiopia if it wanted to at least make the Egyptian bleed a little, they should have demanded HQ-9 batteries manned by chinese troops and instructors along with the contract for the damn.

At least this will make the Egyptian work a little, even lose a few planes.

right now they will suffer zero casualties, they only need a nearby base.

[gurey25]

or short term the Ethiopians should quickly upgrade their SU-27 radar to the Tichimorov AESA
get the latest R-77's and then they have a chance, because Egypt is not allowed to upgrade their radars so that they cannot threaten isreal.
Egypt has old systems, till they get the Rafales.

[samatar133]

There will not be a war between Egypt and Ethiopia in the foreseeable future. It's extremely unlikely that Egypt attacks and destroys the dam. The cost of doing that is far more higher than its benefit. Why should Egypt risk a huge diplomatic backlash globally, when there is no clear and immediate benefit from an air attack? The dam itself doesn't pose any serious water insecurity to Egyptians in the immediate future, it is built for hydroelectric generation mainly which in the long run does not reduce water flow. Irrigation is the problem, and luckily for Egypt, the regions in Ethiopia where blue Nile goes through do not have meaningful irrigable lands, waa qarfo iyo buuro, meel wax laga beeri karoba maaha.

As for Eritrea, any war between them and Ethiopia will not only lead to their defeat again but also a permanent annexation of the Assab port as well.

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

There will not be a war between Egypt and Ethiopia in the foreseeable future. It's extremely unlikely that Egypt attacks and destroys the dam. The cost of doing that is far more higher than its benefit. Why should Egypt risk a huge diplomatic backlash globally, when there is no clear and immediate benefit from an air attack? The dam itself doesn't pose any serious water insecurity to Egyptians in the immediate future, it is built for hydroelectric generation mainly which in the long run does not reduce water flow. Irrigation is the problem, and luckily for Egypt, the regions in Ethiopia where blue Nile goes through do not have meaningful irrigable lands, waa qarfo iyo buuro, meel wax laga beeri karoba maaha.

As for Eritrea, any war between them and Ethiopia will not only lead to their defeat again but also a permanent annexation of the Assab port as well.

Pretty much. I don't think the rest of the world is as quick to war and violence as us Somalis. They prefer covert indirect methods a la regime change, 5th column colour revolutions or good old fashion terrorism and assassinations.

[SecretAgent]

Theres no eritrean army the generals are under house arrest,colonel cismaan coup failed in 2012, 20,000 tpdm rebels protect the president. The afars in eritrea support ethiopa port assab will be captured soon.

[samatar133]

Liquidhyrogen
Sahal thinks that Egyptians are retarded like Somalis. During the dam building process, Ethiopia is not likely to divert large quantities of water to compel Egypt to take action, they are not stupid, they know the risk. And Egyptians are not going to attack the dam for no good and justified reason, simple as that.

[sahal80]

or short term the Ethiopians should quickly upgrade their SU-27 radar to the Tichimorov AESA
get the latest R-77's and then they have a chance, because Egypt is not allowed to upgrade their radars so that they cannot threaten isreal.
Egypt has old systems, till they get the Rafales.

our security expert, ethiopia is too poor to protect itself from egypt

It couldn't defend itself from the eritrean poor jets who concentrated mainly on the wayana clan of the ruling minority wich was the real reason why ethiopia accepted the peace!

Btw eritrea has had dozens of soviet jet fighters since that war stopped and as for foot soldiers they r nearly close

Its only about the distance, egypt needs a closer airfield and its much advanced jet fighters will target the dam in many ways from a far, high, and low levels

"but fortunately for the Egyptians, advancements in weapons technology would enable them to target the Ethiopian dam in a less risky way. The best way for Egypt to knock out a standing dam is to use retarded and delayed-action bombs deployed from very low altitudes, or even better, delayed-action joint direct attack munitions deployed at medium altitude. The difficulty is that the bomb needs to be deployed at the very base of the dam, underwater, where the concussive effect and pressure wave is greatly amplified. Preferably more than one bomb would be deployed in this manner, and the force would be sufficient to breach the dam. 

To avoid the hassle of hitting a standing dam and creating major flooding downstream in Sudan and even potentially Egypt, Cairo would probably prefer to hit it while it is under construction. But it also has to be careful not to hit the dam too early, because then Ethiopia may not be fully deterred from restarting the project.

Distance is a major obstacle for the Egyptian military option. Ethiopia is simply too far from Egypt, and since Egypt has not invested in any sort of aerial refueling capability, it is beyond the combat radius of all Egyptian aircraft staging from Egyptian airfields. The only consolation for Egypt is that the dam is very close to the Sudanese border. Access to Sudanese airfields would place some of Egypt's air force within range. However, operating from Sudanese territory could be politically complicated and would have international repercussions for Sudan along with Egypt. Sudan's proximity to Ethiopia would also leave it vulnerable to direct military retaliation.

Another option is the insertion of special operations forces into Sudan. From there, the forces could move across the border and either harass the construction of the dam or attempt to sabotage the structure under the guise of militants. This would allow Khartoum to realistically pledge that it had no idea there were "militants" there. The harassment tactic by special operations forces or militants would likely only delay the project, not arrest construction.

Special operations forces teams would face their own series of obstacles in trying to destroy the dam. Dams are critical infrastructure and routinely protected relatively well in most countries by dedicated military units. Ethiopia would be no exception, especially with all the contention already surrounding the project. So Egyptian special operations forces would need luck and skill to gain access to the dam successfully. There is also the problem that a small team of ground forces, no matter how elite, would likely be physically unable to carry enough ordnance to critically damage or destroy the dam.

Egypt does have military options, but distance will heavily constrain its ability to project the full force of its military. Any option Cairo chooses to exercise will be risky at best and will also come with severe international consequences."

[sahal80]

Liquidhyrogen
Sahal thinks that Egyptians are retarded like Somalis. During the dam building process, Ethiopia is not likely to divert large quantities of water to compel Egypt to take action, they are not stupid, they know the risk. And Egyptians are not going to attack the dam for no good and justified reason, simple as that.

Who needs your immature opinions when we got wikileaks confirming this!

This link attributes to the CIA

Dozens of jet fighters will target the dam at one time

Needs more advanced jets, this is why egypt is puying them

بوابة الصباح : توقعات أمريكية: مصر ستضرب إثيوبيا عسكرياً والعالم لن يعترض http://elsaba7.com/NewsDtl.aspx?Id=130959

[Oxidant]

What's Sudan's position in the Nile dilemna? '

Also, wouldn't the Israelis help the Ethiopians?

[LiquidHYDROGEN]

What's Sudan's position in the Nile dilemna? '

Also, wouldn't the Israelis help the Ethiopians?

Sudan would do whatever Egypt and the Arab league told it to do.

Israel is, for all intents and purposes, an ally of America who favour the current Egyptian regime (it resembles the nice, cozy, arab repressive dictatorship they're so used to). Israel is also not unsympathetic to the Al-Sisi dictatorship...ahem, sorry democracy. The thing you have to understand about the west, and by extention Israel, is that they are perfectly willing to throw one "ally" under the bus (in this case Ethiopia) for the sake of another "ally" (Egypt).

But I doubt there'll be any major hostilities, maybe diplomatic rows and pissing contests. I despise both countries, so a prolonged and mutual distrust is to my liking - rather than a quick war.

[sahal80]

What's Sudan's position in the Nile dilemna? '

Also, wouldn't the Israelis help the Ethiopians?

Sudan would do whatever Egypt and the Arab league told it to do.

Israel is, for all intents and purposes, an ally of America who favour the current Egyptian regime (it resembles the nice, cozy, arab repressive dictatorship they're so used to). Israel is also not unsympathetic to the Al-Sisi dictatorship...ahem, sorry democracy. The thing you have to understand about the west, and by extention Israel, is that they are perfectly willing to throw one "ally" under the bus (in this case Ethiopia) for the sake of another "ally" (Egypt).

But I doubt there'll be any major hostilities, maybe diplomatic rows and pissing contests. I despise both countries, so a prolonged and mutual distrust is to my liking - rather than a quick war.

lol sounds like your giving fatwa on a subject that your not familiar with!

Sudan is the eritrea of egypt, therefore is allied with ethiopia

Plus the isolated islamic regime in khartoum depands diplomatically on addis ababa

Khartoums peace agreements and deals with south sudan was reached through ethiopia

Sudan publically, diplomatically and fully backs ethiopia on this issue against egypt

South sudan is closer to egypt than khartoum

Egypt has a UN peacekeeping troops in south sudan and protects the regime while khartoum backs rayak machar

Uganda had special troops in there since the conflict to save salfakir

Ethiopia is neutral and had peoblems as IGAD with uganda on this

Eritrea is waiting since ethiopia is not aligned with one side, closer to mashar thou

Khatroum and cairo r antithesis!

Egypt has 500 jet fighters, among them r 220 F16

Over 4000 tanks

Ethiopian soviet jet fighters don't reach 50 kkk

[Rambie]

Sahal we both know how unreliable the Egyptian media is so don't use it as a source. Actually the whole Arab media is not reliable. Egypt is by far the mother of all calcaal in the Arab world. Don't take their rants seriously. They can't and they won't attack the dam cos they have a political meltdown and terorist threat to take care of, and even if they don't they can't do shit. Sudan position is neutral and kinda supportive to Ethiopia since the dam will regulate the river's flow and provide cheap electricity.

There is a movement now to build more dams along the Nile by other countries. Will Egypt face every one of them? Diffidently not.....