Jubaland and the union of middle shabelle and hiraan

[Typhoon]

the rise of western European states is directly related to their geography.
even in italian pensuale the best states arise in plateau of former lombards
the fragmentation and transience of security for nations of the balkans is directly related to their geography

historically semi states have arising in southern somalia rather then somali galbeed or northern somalia, somalis up north were tribal and fragmented and even the notion of sultanate was mere symbolic a immitation then a actual reality, somali sultantes were tribal rather then state oriented, except in the south were there was some bureaucracy among the geledi, ajuraan and silci.


its amazing how the somali civil war resembles European history
if you look historicly european powers, they were people on the major rivers of Danube, Elbe, Loire, Rhine and Volga(same can be said about the the egyptian, indians and chinese)
the reason european nations on the european plain developed strong states was because of war and civil strive.
no strong powerfull state has ever emerged through peace even great brittian became great because of their foreign wars.

in my humbles opinion future strong somali regional states will rise around the juba river and shabbele river.

I personally think hiraan and middel shabbele union and jubaland state will be future germany and france of somalia

properly the biggest event in somali hsitory in our time is daarood becoming a southern power player, this was not the case in pre-conolial times.
daarod history was mainly northern and western phenomena

hawiye and southern daarood have consolidated their geography and power, I will not be surprised if they move away quickly from tribalism and to proper state identity.

I think somali state formation should be studied, I will keep a eye on it, its amazing how we can not see the obvious

[gambit]

You try to complicate things that are very simple. Somalia is not europe. And somalis are very shortsighted and frankly dumb.

[Based]

You try to complicate things that are very simple. Somalia is not europe. And somalis are very shortsighted and frankly dumb.

Sorry Herr Eaglehawk, basically this.

We're doomed to a Hobbesian existence while the world exploits bickering tribesmen who think themselves sophisticated as every nation on earth surpasses them.

Looking forward to our seemingly inevitable extinction

[Typhoon]

You try to complicate things that are very simple. Somalia is not europe. And somalis are very shortsighted and frankly dumb.

Sorry Herr Eaglehawk, basically this.

We're doomed to a Hobbesian existence while the world exploits bickering tribesmen who think themselves sophisticated as every nation on earth surpasses them.

Looking forward to our seemingly inevitable extinction

based only out of Hobbesian Bellum omnium contra omnes can answer arise that legitimise answers to that condition, a example would be al shabab absolutist notion of statecraft due to their opposition to tribal status quo.

if you look at Chinese state-formation and early unification; political scientist all agree it was due to their geography that made unification easy while unification
Europeans can never unify because of their geography but the European plains allow nation states to emerge and thrive because of fear of anarchy which necessitates structural security and the management of resources that is required to finance a state and feed a populace.

based, if there is universal accepted notion in southern somalia that has emerged in the civil war, is that we should transcend tribal interest and we should strive towards the legitimisation of state and the institutions of the state.
even the emerges of regional states follow geographic barriers and balance of power.

a example would be jubaland geographic state-formation, it follows exactly European geographic state craft, natural border to the north by juba river, east on the indian ocean and juba and dawa river to the west.

if you look at somaliland, they live in different worlds from each other, hargeisa is disconnected from sanaag and buhoodle has no relations or security interdependence with hargeisa.

the basisi for northen state formation is tribalism while in the south tribe is a liability, look no further then how on the principle of jubaland as a state is accepted in gedo, and the 2 jubas albeit disputed on the leadership- can that be said of somaliland in badhan and buhoodle?
even the basis of jubaland is not tribal, if that was the case, the auliyahan of north bakool and majerteen buraashadla in bakool would be part of jubaland, which they are not

in hiraan and middel shabelle, its conventional wisdom that these 2 regions have state affinity with eachother then they do with their kin in galgaduud and vice versa.

i made this map few years back and it confirms what I thought

[Estarix]

You try to complicate things that are very simple. Somalia is not europe. And somalis are very shortsighted and frankly dumb.

Sorry Herr Eaglehawk, basically this.

We're doomed to a Hobbesian existence while the world exploits bickering tribesmen who think themselves sophisticated as every nation on earth surpasses them.

Looking forward to our seemingly inevitable extinction

The problem is that developing viable states that can economically boom and support large populations is not achievable in most of Somalia (which is arid) but can be easily done in the South. And those that should be spearheading Somali resurgence and renaissance do not know for the most part how to make good use of the land (irragation methods, using rivers, long term planning etc.).
I don't think Somalis will become extinct but i dont think we will go very far, sadly Somalis have a very gloomy future with the way things are going.

[Based]

based, if there is universal accepted notion in southern somalia that has emerged in the civil war, is that we should transcend tribal interest and we should strive towards the legitimisation of state and the institutions of the state.

Sorry, I just can't see that happening any time soon.

We have kids born and bred in the west extolling the virtues of their clan, maxaa uu qabtaa kuwii Somalia ku haray?

We have a landlocked demographic timebomb of a nation next to a collection of warring clan states with the largest coastline on the continent with a population smaller than Shanghai...you do the math sxb.

The Somali people have stubbornly refused to transcend the very institution that keeps them firmly planted at the bottom of every single indicator of human development.

It's quite obvious the vast majority do not have the intellectual capacity to understand that simple fact. Natural selection will inevitably take its course as the Somalis exhaust themselves and hurdle headfirst to extinction.

[Typhoon]

based, if there is universal accepted notion in southern somalia that has emerged in the civil war, is that we should transcend tribal interest and we should strive towards the legitimisation of state and the institutions of the state.

Sorry, I just can't see that happening any time soon.

We have kids born and bred in the west extolling the virtues of their clan, maxaa uu qabtaa kuwii Somalia ku haray?

We have a landlocked demographic timebomb of a nation next to a collection of warring clan states with the largest coastline on the continent with a population smaller than Shanghai...you do the math sxb.

The Somali people have stubbornly refused to transcend the very institution that keeps them firmly planted at the bottom of every single indicator of human development.

It's quite obvious the vast majority do not have the intellectual capacity to understand that simple fact. Natural selection will inevitably take its course as the Somalis exhaust themselves and hurdle headfirst to extinction.

everything you said about somalis could be said about Europeans in the middel ages and everything you said about Ethiopia could be said about the Islamic Ottoman caliphate and their predecessors.

based
20 years civil war is not much of a big deal historical the lesson learned in that 20 years are profound and somalis are consciously and politicly mature then they were in pre 1991.
our experience and the lessons learned during civil war puts us ahead of arabs and africans, we have become less revolutionary and more pragmatic consensual.

you have 19 century arm-chair anthropological views, which we will discuss in other time but there is flaw in your disputation.

somali president has visited every region in somalia that is critical to the state and somali politicians are solving their problem without the barrel of the gun or through tribal collective action and you call that frivolous and static?

[Estarix]

The OP seems to be all about looking at a map, dreaming and then from there reaching all kinds of wild conclusions. There's little talk of history, culture and nation building initiative and skills. How can the Marexan for example build anything when they hardly make any use of one of the major rivers that runs through Gedo and 90% of their population in Gedo is still nomadic. There's a history of lack of state formation, a viable security apparatus, locally established businesses and severe shortage of educated/skilled technocrats. The same applies for the Rahanweyen who do not utilize their resources efficiently and whom seem to be perpetually displaced.
Things just dont form out of a vacuum son.

[Typhoon]

The OP seems to be all about looking at a map, dreaming and then from there reaching all kinds of wild conclusions. There's little talk of history, culture and nation building initiative and skills. How can the Marexan for example build anything when they hardly make any use of one of the major rivers that runs through Gedo and 90% of their population in Gedo is still nomadic. There's a history of lack of state formation, a viable security apparatus, locally established businesses and severe shortage of educated/skilled technocrats. The same applies for the Rahanweyen who do not utilize their resources efficiently and whom seem to be perpetually displaced.
Things just dont form out of a vacuum son.

2 things are perpetuating that condition and that is the state of insecurity and the lack of political process, both those issues are being addressed through the state formation process of jubaland and south western state.
The security has been improving and there is a state formation process and development would by-product of current political rendering.

As for the marexaan they have educated elite that have experience and knowledge of statecraft, governance and military matters, they choose supremacy of military method during the civil rather the civil methods due to their stratic war prone location, they are prone to insecurity and their answer to that alongside Ogaden, is jubaland and peace with ethiopia and kenya and a detente with non daarood clans.

The marexaan are in jubaland government and make up huge junk in national civil service in Mogadishu and are part of all levels of the national army and intelligence
Peace is prerequisite to development

I don`t think its the lack of bureaucrats or highly skilled technocrats that hindered state-formation its was political realities that hindered it.

as for the raxaynwayn they are the only clan that geographicly lives with each-other they have more skilled and educated people per square mile, so what hindered their state-formation process, it was political uncertainty and their was no somali consensus on the nature of future political order, with federalism as a road map for somalia this has changed everything.
people need to remember the somalis who are running Nairobi business and graduating from nairobo university and american universities and European university are majority jubalanders and raxanwayn, so human capital is certainly not lacking what is lacking is security based on concrete legal foundation, which is emerging, hence the acceleration of state formation and institution building.

if people can not see what is happing in southern somalia they must be blind.
the process that his happening mogadishu is trickling to the regions, we allways said in snet; if mogadishu gets peace entire southern somalia would be transformed because; peace in mogadishu means a consensus has been reached by somali major stake holders.

this is not a romantic or a revolutionary picture its boring slow and institutional but the the result is, governance above and beyond tribe and civil war.

[theyuusuf143]

don't look at the green too much. the most african green area locates the DRC (congo) a country whose GDP is 3 times below somaliland GDP according to the world bank.

Based on initial GDP analysis -to be updated as
data improves and further data becomes
available- Somaliland’s GDP for 2012 is estimated
to have been $1.4 billion (current US$ prices)[1],
with GDP per capita estimated at $347 . This
would be the fourth lowest in the world, ahead of
Malawi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo
and Burundi.

[Based]

everything you said about somalis could be said about Europeans in the middel ages and everything you said about Ethiopia could be said about the Islamic Ottoman caliphate and their predecessors.

I have said on another thread that Somalia resembles a somehow worse version of Italy and Germany's struggles in forming a national consciousness that transcended their petty regional feuds exploited by every other major power. Somalia is as much a playground for Ethiopia and co. as Italy was for France or Spain.
Does this not remind you of Somalia and the Somali people:

20 years civil war is not much of a big deal historical the lesson learned in that 20 years are profound and somalis are consciously and politicly mature then they were in pre 1991.
our experience and the lessons learned during civil war puts us ahead of arabs and africans, we have become less revolutionary and more pragmatic consensual.

you have 19 century arm-chair anthropological views, which we will discuss in other time but there is flaw in your disputation. somali president has visited every region in somalia that is critical to the state and somali politicians are solving their problem without the barrel of the gun or through tribal collective action and you call that frivolous and static?

I have always expressed hope in the idea that the Somalis will eventually overcome their supposed differences but I've got to admit that I've grown more and more pessimistic as the conflict continues to rage,the supposed government sells the country to the highest bidder, and the people still worship their ancestors despite being destitute, dispersed throughout the world, and eternally divided.

Who will be our von Bismarck? XSM

[Estarix]

The OP seems to be all about looking at a map, dreaming and then from there reaching all kinds of wild conclusions. There's little talk of history, culture and nation building initiative and skills. How can the Marexan for example build anything when they hardly make any use of one of the major rivers that runs through Gedo and 90% of their population in Gedo is still nomadic. There's a history of lack of state formation, a viable security apparatus, locally established businesses and severe shortage of educated/skilled technocrats. The same applies for the Rahanweyen who do not utilize their resources efficiently and whom seem to be perpetually displaced.
Things just dont form out of a vacuum son.

2 things are perpetuating that condition and that is the state of insecurity and the lack of political process, both those issues are being addressed through the state formation process of jubaland and south western state.
The security has been improving and there is a state formation process and development would by-product of current political rendering.

As for the marexaan they have educated elite that have experience and knowledge of statecraft, governance and military matters, they choose supremacy of military method during the civil rather the civil methods due to their stratic war prone location, they are prone to insecurity and their answer to that alongside Ogaden, is jubaland and peace with ethiopia and kenya and a detente with non daarood clans.

The marexaan are in jubaland government and make up huge junk in national civil service in Mogadishu and are part of all levels of the national army and intelligence
Peace is prerequisite to development

I don`t think its the lack of bureaucrats or highly skilled technocrats that hindered state-formation its was political realities that hindered it.

as for the raxaynwayn they are the only clan that geographicly lives with each-other they have more skilled and educated people per square mile, so what hindered their state-formation process, it was political uncertainty and their was no somali consensus on the nature of future political order, with federalism as a road map for somalia this has changed everything.
people need to remember the somalis who are running Nairobi business and graduating from nairobo university and american universities and European university are majority jubalanders and raxanwayn, so human capital is certainly not lacking what is lacking is security based on concrete legal foundation, which is emerging, hence the acceleration of state formation and institution building.

if people can not see what is happing in southern somalia they must be blind.
the process that his happening mogadishu is trickling to the regions, we allways said in snet; if mogadishu gets peace entire southern somalia would be transformed because; peace in mogadishu means a consensus has been reached by somali major stake holders.

this is not a romantic or a revolutionary picture its boring slow and institutional but the the result is, governance above and beyond tribe and civil war.

Well for a start what it needs is a political process that can unite each of these places; thats a hard part but not the hardest once that's done to have the region stable for the long term is a government that's honest, capable and able to develop foundation for foreign capital flow and make it attractive for such investment (attract educated jubalanders). Can nurture investments for substructures such as development in infrastructure, can establish educational institutions and incentivize locals to contribute at home> Have a concrete structure and system in place which prevents and resolves conflicts at state/local level, can tackle corruption and similar infamies. Actually evolves past clan system and rewards/selects people on the bases of their ability and not their clan.
Somalia has a very long way to go.

[Typhoon]

don't look at the green too much. the most african green area locates the DRC (congo) a country whose GDP is 3 times below somaliland GDP according to the world bank.

congos is a unatural state, its actually countries within country, sudan is the same.

congo gdp is 55 billion but congo has alot of rural populace unlike somaliland who are concentrated in 3 cities.
gdp per capita of Kinshasa is far higher then hargeisa or any city in somaliland and Kinshasa gdp as a city compared to entire somaliland uncomparable
my piont is, if states are allowed to form natural as is happeninbg somalia now to would follow classical stateformation course and geography determines their viability and the structure of their state








[youtube]Y4AYfkuaCzQ#t=71[/youtube]

[theyuusuf143]

I am talking about per capita .

[Typhoon]

Estarix and based dad muslim ba nahay you have to be optimistic and allah does not change the condition of a people untill they change themselves.

somalia is really moving not in the superficial sense of new building here and there, its moving institutionally and structurally as a state.

what you guys are talking about is the by-product of a stable state, and that is what somalia is striving for, somalia is crawling about to step up and you guys want it to run while crawling.

we are here in somalinet debating society, we have a bird perspective, that is easily, but the only people that know the tremendous progress that somalia is making in ballfields is the people back home, who few years back were prone to indiscriminate and unlawful robbery murder, theft and all kinds of hobbsian transgressions.

What difference me from the general people of back home and you lot is that I see the source of progress in abstract manner not because of individuals or certain groups but the political culture that is emerging and maturing that starts to respect and build governing structures and institutions.

somalia needs a pilot now but at some point it will go in a cruise control and that is when you guys take things for granted and not understand what the source of the cruise-control was, for it was sowed exactly in this period 2015 and you were blind to see